2021 ATP Tennis Picks: Best Morning Bets for First Round at Paris Masters (Monday, Nov. 1)
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Sebastian Korda.
The ATP tour moves on to its final Masters 1000 event of the year, stopping in Paris for another indoor hard-court event.
Novak Djokovic headlines a field that is so stacked that world number 54 Tommy Paul had to play qualifiers.
Paris represents the first tournament for Djokovic since his US Open final loss in early September. He’ll be playing doubles on Monday, but won’t feature in singles until later in the week.
Here’s how I’ll be playing the early morning slate of tennis that we have in Paris.
Aslan Karatsev (-184) vs. Sebastian Korda (+152)
7:20 a.m. ET
Both players are capable of utilizing elite power when playing well, and both have the ability to combust when out of form.
Each struggled at the St. Petersburg Open, but the two have been trending in different directions since successes in the first half of the year. While Karatsev struck gold at the Australian Open — making the semifinals and going on to win Dubai later in the year — Korda reached two ATP finals and won one as well.
In recent months, Karatsev has had much more to write home about. The Russian recently won the Kremlin Cup that was capped off with a final victory over Marin Cilic, whose only loss in the past two tournaments he’s played was in that match.
Korda has won two of his last five matches, but the American has looked much improved to the one that struggled with injuries throughout the summer hardcourt season. The easy power that Korda possesses was on better display in Russia and is dangerous against any player on tour.
On the fast indoor hardcourt that Paris maintains, Korda has the advantage. If he is able to progress from what he showed in St. Petersburg, he could have the chance to take time away from Karatsev and earn free points.
If he isn’t able to progress, he could be in for a long day against another powerful player. At this price, however, you’re far better off backing the chances that Korda improves and poses a serious threat for Karatsev.
This is further evidenced by the American’s 2-0 H2H record against Karatsev. Korda throttled Karatsev both at the French Open qualifiers last year as well as in Miami this year, where he beat Karatsev 6-3 6-0.
Pick: Sebastian Korda +152 via FanDuel
Nikoloz Basilashvili (-200) vs. Adrian Mannarino (+160)
10 a.m. ET
Though Basilashvili has been one of the hottest players on tour in recent weeks, he’s been coming back down to earth.
Losses against Cameron Norrie and Matteo Berrettini from winning positions showcased the vulnerabilities in the Georgian’s game. While he can play with ridiculous brute strength and ease at times, if he begins to misfire he becomes incredibly wild.
Mannarino is the type of player that will be uncomfortable for Basilashvili to deal with. The Frenchman plays a flat ball that won’t bounce into Basilashvili’s strike zone, and he has the patience to maintain a game plan throughout the match.
He comes into the first round meeting after a key win against Andrey Rublev in Moscow two weeks ago. Though Mannarino followed the upset win with two losses, Rublev and Basilashvili have very similar styles.
If Mannarino can showcase the type of tennis that he played against Rublev, Basilashvili should become loose and impatient as the match moves on.
Back Mannarino to pull off the upset.
Pick: Adrian Mannarino +160 via Caesars Sportsbook