Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer Betting Odds and Pick: Who Will Advance To the 2020 Australian Open Final?

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Photo by Mike Owen/Getty Images. Pictured: Roger Federer

Jan 29, 2020, 12:42 PM EST

Thursday features the first of two ATP semifinals matchups, beginning at 3:30 a.m. ET on Thursday morning in North America  — so you’ll need to get your bets in early.

Let’s examine today’s matchup, the 50th career head-to-head meeting between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.

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Novak Djokovic (-684) vs. Roger Federer | O/U: 33

  • Time: 3:30 a.m. ET
  • Where: Rod Laver Arena
  • H2H: Djokovic leads 26-23

Betting Odds History (Since 2014)

Not only is Federer the biggest underdog that he’s ever been against Djokovic – but he’s also the biggest underdog of his entire career.

Match Analysis

Let’s get the elephants in the room out of the way.

Federer played through a groin injury and survived seven match points in the quarterfinal against a choking Tennys Sandgren – before skipping training yesterday for relaxation and treatment.

The Swiss admitted to being lucky to survive that match with a victory and seemed somewhat unconfident that he’d be able to get up for this match against Djokovic.

His serve dropped from an average of 112 mph to 105 mph from the first set to the second set, while being out-aced, 27-5, and he has now played two grueling five-setters during the fortnight; getting lucky to survive each.

And on top of those fitness concerns, he needs to beat Djokovic in a best of five match on a hard court; something he hasn’t done since the 2009 US Open.

The Serbian has been in-form throughout this tournament, particularly excelling in the areas (serving, winners) where Federer would typically have the edge.

While the speed on Federer’s serve has declined, Djokovic has increased the speed of his second serve – and the improvement is paying dividends.

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