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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniil Medvedev: Upset Unlikely in Aussie Open Quarterfinal

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniil Medvedev: Upset Unlikely in Aussie Open Quarterfinal article feature image
Credit:

Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Daniil Medvedev hits a forehand against Maxime Cressy at the Australian Open.

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Daniil Medvedev Odds

Auger-Aliassime Odds +500
Medvedev Odds -800
Total 35.5 (-115/-105)
Time | TV 3:30 a.m. ET | ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Felix Auger-Aliassime continues to grow in confidence and establish himself as a contender in Grand Slams, but one man he’s going to have find a way to solve is Daniil Medvedev.

The world number two and current Australian Open favorite has had the Canadian’s number in each of their three meetings and will surely be in FAA’s way for many years to come.

Will history repeat itself here, or can FAA turn this into a rivalry?

Auger-Aliassime Improving But Facing Tough Stylistic Test

The Canadian has always had incredible raw talent but up until last year he didn’t really know what to do with it. It was then he started working with Toni Nadal that he turned around his mental game, getting smarter about how he plays the big points and learning when to utilize his sublime shotmaking skills.

With that came success at Grand Slams. After flaming out of the Australian Open, blowing a two sets-to-love lead to Aslan Karatsev, and falling in the first round of the French Open, Auger-Aliassime had his best performance at a Grand Slam to date.

He went to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, where he took a set off the second-best grass player on tour in Matteo Berrettini, and from there he began to play some composed tennis, reaching his first Grand Slam semifinal at the US Open.

It was in New York where he met Daniil Medvedev, who is quickly turning into his nemesis. The Russian took him out in straight sets en route to his first-ever Grand Slam, but it wasn’t without some drama.

Auger-Aliassime actually served for the second set up a break at 5-3 before blowing two set points and giving the break right back to Medvedev. He’d go on to get broken in his next service game, losing the match in rather academic fashion from there.

We know he’s capable of pushing Medvedev, but aside from their first meeting back in 2018 when he took a set, the Russian has been unbothered by Auger-Aliassime. Their most recent meeting came at the ATP Cup earlier this month where the match was very close for eight games before Medvedev won eight straight games to take it 6-4, 6-0. It was a particularly concerning result considering Auger-Aliassime was able to land 73% of his first serves throughout the match.

Medvedev Having Interesting Run as Favorite

Taking a page out of Novak Djokovic’s book as the new favorite at the Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev’s first four matches in Melbourne have been something of an adventure.

He seemed to fight off boredom in his opening-round win over Henri Laaksonen, which ended in a third-set tiebreak after the Russian had dominated the proceedings. He needed to dig a little bit to get past Nick Kyrgios and a raucous crowd in the second round, winning in four sets. He then beat Botic Van De Zandschulp in a breeze before turning back the clock in the round of 16.

It was there, against Maxime Cressy, that the man I commonly refer to as “Tiltvedev” made a re-appearance. He went on many rants about Cressy getting “lucky” by hitting lines with his serves and calling the match “so boring” in another monologue.

The fact is, the unorthodox serve-and-volley style of the American was really getting to the Russian, and the outbursts proved just that.  Cressy was able to force two tiebreaks, hanging around to take the third set and frustrating Medvedev with his serve. The Russian wasn’t able to negotiate as many breaks as he usually does, and that was something which was tough for him to live with.

In the third set, a back issue for the Russian needed medical attention, only adding to the drama. All in all, it was a roller coaster of a match, and one which brought out the slightly-vulnerable part of the US Open champion, even for a bit.

It was a good reminder that despite all of his success and dominance, Medvedev is still capable of getting in his own way mentally and is prone to lapses in focus. We have yet to see it really put him on the brink of elimination in a little while, but surely the next outburst is coming any time now.

Auger-Aliassime vs. Medvedev Betting Value & Pick

The fact is, if the back is not affecting Medvedev then there is no reason to believe he’d struggle at all with Auger-Aliassime given their history.

Though the young Canadian has worked very hard to eliminate his costly unforced errors, he’s still a very shaky and inconsistent player from the baseline. This makes Medvedev a nightmare matchup with his ability to defend and make you play extra balls. A guy whose entire game is predicated on waiting for his opponent to make errors has had predictable success against a guy infamous for his error count.

With that, the only way to play this one would be to take Medvedev in straight sets. It’s slightly terrifying given the fact that Auger-Aliassime had multiple set points in their US Open match, but on paper he should be no match for Medvedev.

As I said above, it’s also a good match to match t0 bet live given what happened in Medvedev’s previous match. At the first sight of issues with the back or with his attitude, the over could come into play.

Pick: Medvedev -2.5 Sets (+100)

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