Defending French Open champion Carlos Alcaraz may be sidelined from participating in this year’s edition of Roland Garros, but there’s still plenty of intrigue in the men’s singles bracket, largely focused on World No. 1 Jannik Sinner.
It’s been Sinner’s world in the ATP since March – the Italian has been victorious in 29 straight matches en route to winning the first five Masters 1000 events of the season (Indian Wells, Miami, Monte-Carlo, Madrid, Rome).
Sinner, 24, is the youngest player to win all nine Masters 1000 events (the Career Golden Masters), a feat that has only been achieved once before him (by a 31-year-old Novak Djokovic in 2018).
Given Sinner’s otherworldly run of form and the absence of Alcaraz, the Italian enters the French Open as a heavy betting favorite to hoist the Coupe des Mousquetaires. At -300, Sinner is the heaviest favorite entering any Grand Slam event since Rafael Nadal in 2009 at the French Open (per our Evan Abrams).
With the French Open draw out, the question everyone is wondering now is: “Can anyone stop Jannik Sinner – and who?”
Below, our staff of tennis experts chime in on whether Sinner will coast to the French Open title (and achieve the Career Grand Slam in the process), the players who could possibly upset the Italian (hello, Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud), and their Roland Garros betting predictions.
Sinner's Run to the French Open
As mentioned above, Jannik Sinner has been on a 2 1/2 month tear. He is 36-2 on the season, with his only two defeats coming in the Australian Open (a five-set loss to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals) and Qatar (a three-set loss to Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinals).
Indian Wells
Sinner's heater appropriately began in the desert, where he didn't drop a set in any of the six matches he won. That said, he was tested by the likes of Joao Fonseca and Daniil Medvedev, both of whom forced the Italian into tight tiebreakers in each set.
Miami Open
Unfazed by the elements, it was deja vu in Miami as Sinner didn't drop a set en route to achieving the Sunshine Double. Sinner became the first man to win Indian Wells and Miami without dropping a set. He became the eighth player to achieve a Sunshine Double and the first since Roger Federer (2017).
Monte-Carlo
Sinner's Monte-Carlo run had some firsts.
Notably, he finally dropped a set (to Tomas Machac in the third round) following 13 straight-set wins. That was the only set the Italian dropped in the tournament.
Sinner met a familiar foe in the final round in rival Carlos Alcaraz. This match marked the duo's first head-to-head on clay since last year's five-set epic in the French Open final. This was Sinner's first win over Alcaraz on a clay court since 2022; the Italian also reclaimed the honor of World No. 1 from the Spaniard.
Sinner joined Novak Djokovic (2015) as the only players to win Miami and Monte-Carlo back to back.
Madrid
Outside of Sinner dropping a first-set tiebreaker to Benjamin Bonzi in his opening match, Madrid was academic for the Italian.
The Italian won his next 12 sets and made easy work of some hot up-and-comers in the ATP Tour in Rafael Jodar and Arthur Fils. World No. 2 Alexander Zverev won just three games overall in the lopsided title match.
Sinner has won nine straight matches against Zverev, who is the second betting favorite to win Roland Garros. Notably, the Italian hasn't lost a set to the German in six consecutive matches.
"There's a big gap between Sinner and everybody else," Zverev stated post-match.
Rome
Sinner achieved another first to cap his ridiculous run to Roland Garros by becoming the first Italian to win Rome since Adriano Pannata in 1976.
Daniil Medvedev was the only player to steal a set from Sinner in this tournament in a grueling semifinal that was suspended due to rain in the third set.
Sinner is 17-0 on clay entering the French Open.
Will Sinner's Health Hold?
A deserved heavy favorite to win the French Open, there is one part of Sinner's profile that could get in the way: his health.
Sinner has endured a grueling schedule since Indian Wells. The most rest Sinner has gotten during this run was a week off between Monte-Carlo and Madrid.
In his win over Medvedev in Rome, Sinner finally showed signs of wear as he was forced to take a medical timeout in the third set.
Sinner's fitness level in majors has been a talking point in the past, with the Italian struggling from exhaustion and cramping.
Sinner's glowing resumé has one visible wart: a 6-11 record in five-set matches. He is 2-10 in five-set matches against opponents ranked in the top 50 and he is 0-9 in Grand Slam matches that last at least 3 hours and 50 minutes. The Italian's longest win in a Grand Slam came over Ilya Ivashka in a five-setter at the US Open in 2022 (3 hours and 48 minutes).
Who Could Stop Sinner?
Watch out for FAA
Evan Abrams: The question entering Roland Garros is not who will beat Jannik Sinner, but more or less how. Since 2023, all four of Sinner’s losses on clay to any player not named Carlos Alcaraz have mainly been of the self-inflicted category.
Stefanos Tsitsipas got a missed double-fault call and Sinner cramping in the third set in Monte-Carlo in 2024 (6-4, 3-6, 6-4). Daniel Altmaier needed 5 hours and 26 minutes at Roland Garros in 2023 (and Sinner had match points). Francisco Cerundolo's Rome Round 16 win in 2023 was over an 8-seed Sinner who hadn't yet become the version we know now. Holger Rune's Monte-Carlos win in 2023 (1-6, 7-5, 7-5) was probably the cleanest of the four wins.
Since the start of 2025, the only non-Alcaraz player to beat Sinner on any surface was Bublik on grass at Halle 2025. Sinner is 17-0 on clay in 2026 with the Monte Carlo, Madrid, and Rome titles.
If you look at Sinner’s path post draw, we assume he gets Juan Manuel Cerundolo, which should be fine, but I think Corentin Moutet or Martin Landaluce could push the Italian for a set.
In the quarters, semis, and final, the names are probably: Ben Shelton, Alexander Bublik, Felix Auger Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, Tsitsipas and then Novak Djokovic or Alexander Zverev possibly in the final. Overall, it's hard to see Sinner going down. The French Open is the lone slam he yearns for, it would complete the Career Grand Slam — and without Alcaraz I think it's inevitable.
Sinner’s odds of winning the French without dropping a set, +500, is still dramatically better than any other player's odds of even winning the tournament (Zverev at 12-1 and Djokovic at 13-1).
If anyone can stop Sinner, especially from that list of possible opponents above, it's a dark horse for me: Auger Aliassime. FAA has a very tough opener vs. Altmaier — to me, the winner has some real momentum.
Sinner in the semifinals is a distance away. But Sinner’s dominance ratio (% of return points won ÷ % of serve points lost) vs. FAA in two clay matches shows a much tighter level of play.
Sinner Record vs. Player, Career (on clay):
- Ben Shelton, 9-1
- Alexander Bublik, 6-2 (1-0)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas, 3-6 (1-4)
- Félix Auger-Aliassime, 5-2 (1-1)
- Daniil Medvedev, 10-7 (1-0)
- Novak Djokovic, 6-5 (1-1)
- Alexander Zverev, 10-4 (3-1)
Seeing Ghosts; Rising Frenchman
Ryan Minion: Casper Ruud thrives on clay and could possibly contend with Sinner if the two meet in Paris. Ruud, who is the sixth-favorite to win his first career slam, enters the French Open in great form having just made the Rome Final.
While Casper is 0-5 in his career versus Sinner, he is one of the best clay-court players in the world. The Norwegian has already made the Roland Garros Final twice (2022, 2023), losing to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
Twenty-one-year-old Frenchman Arthur Fils enters the French Open in stellar form, having won 14 of his 19 matches on clay in 2026. Fils is coming off a huge victory on a clay-surface tournament at Barcelona.
While Fils is undoubtedly still very young and has yet to make a Grand Slam quarterfinal in his career thus far, he is starting to find his form and boasts tremendous athleticism that could potentially pose some problems for Sinner. Though I think Sinner will ultimately reign supreme, I absolutely love Fils' long-term potential and he is undoubtedly one of the Italian’s biggest foes in the upcoming tournament with the Frenchman already having won three titles on clay over his short career thus far.
Fils is a natural on clay courts, easily sliding across the baseline and implementing a deadly forehand that has been far more accurate in 2026. The Frenchman has a high toss on his serve with heavy topspin that often requires an adjustment to how his opponents defend the baseline. While I don't think Fils wins this rendition in Paris, he is one of just a few players who have the tools to take down the world No. 1.
Djokovic or Bust
Carmine Carcieri: It's Novak Djokovic or bust. He has five victories against Sinner, including a four-set win against the Italian in the semifinals of the Australian Open earlier this season. Despite his age (38) and lacking form on clay, Djokovic has the best overall combination of experience, resilience and historic success vs. Sinner. Right now, Alexander Zverev, who's favored over Djokovic at FanDuel, doesn't have the mental aptitude to take down the World No. 1 in a Grand Slam.
Carlos Avilan: The straight answer would be either nobody or Novak Djokovic with a huge question mark. The Serbian legend has won 5-of-11 matches against Sinner, which is a way better H2H record than the rest of the possible contenders. Plus, he would also be the only one unfazed by a final match against him, but who knows how fit Djokovic will be. Lorenzo Musetti would have been a dark horse if he hadn't withdrawn due to injury, and Alexander Zverev has the wrong kind of big-match reputation and has lost his last nine meetings with Sinner.
James Lumalu: I would love to pick the field just to be a contrarian — but I can't. Sinner's draw is a favorable one, with his projected opponents being Corentin Moutet, Luciano Darderi, Ben Shelton, Felix Auger Aliassime and Alexander Zverev in a potential final. Sinner has a combined 27-7 record against that lot.
Sinner is so far ahead of the competition right now that it's hard to see anyone pushing him into a long, grind-it-out affair. As noted above, Novak Djokovic is the guy to spoil the Sinner party, but he'd have to run the gamut and reach the final for the opportunity to do so.
Djokovic also hasn't played much in the lead up to Roland Garros; the only clay event he participated in was Rome — and he lost in his opening match to Dino Prizmic. The Serbian has neither the form nor the durability at this stage of his career to pull this off.
French Open Expert Predictions
| Market | Staff Selection | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus Favorite | Jannik Sinner | -300 |
| Best Challenger | Novak Djokovic | +1600 |
| Long-Shot Value (home favorite) | Arthur Fils | +2500 |
| Long-Shot Value (form, clay pedigree) | Casper Ruud | +2800 |
| Long-Shot Value (the data play) | Felix Auger Aliassime | +10000 |
