Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Odds, Picks, Predictions | Australian Open Final Preview

Sinner vs Medvedev Odds

The final match of the Australian Open will be played in the wee hours of the morning in the United States, as Jannik Sinner takes on Daniil Medvedev in Melbourne.

Sinner is looking for his first career Grand Slam title, while Medvedev is looking for a second. The Russian won the 2021 US Open over Novak Djokovic.

The Italian has dropped just one set en route to the final, with that coming in his semifinal match against Djokovic. He won the match and four sets and was in control of the contest for its entirety.

Medvedev outlasted Alexander Zverev in the semifinals, coming back from a two-set deficit and some heavy legs.

Read on for our expert Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev predictions ahead of the Australian Open final.

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Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Picks

Daniil Medvedev ML (+230 via FanDuel)

Jon Reid: I was really hoping to get a number that would've had me inclined to bet Sinner in this spot. He's been playing some scintillating tennis, and should be the deserved favorite.

With that said, this price has gone a bit far. Medvedev has the pedigree that warrants more respect on hard courts and at the Grand Slam level, has a huge serve that should allow him to keep proceedings close at the very least and his rigid solidity from the baseline, combined with his wingspan, should help him extend points against the brute force of the Sinner groundstrokes.

I'm not overly concerned with the length of the matches for Medvedev to this point. He's one of the most fit players on tour and long matches favor him against just about any player. Not to mention, he's getting days off between each match.

The reaction to Sinner cruising to the final and beating Djokovic as badly as he did now has the big-serving Russian winning just 30% of the time.

I'll take a shot on those odds on a quick hard court against anyone.

Under 38.5 Games (-125 via FanDuel)

Kenny Ducey: The head-to-head between these two has featured some awfully tight matches, with five of their nine meetings going the full three sets, but that’s not exactly how I see Sunday’s Australian Open final going.

We’ve never seen a version of Sinner quite this good. His physicality has been at an all-time high, he’s been mentally resilient, and best of all he’s finally put himself in a winning position at a Grand Slam by conserving energy throughout the tournament.

A lot is going to be made of the difference in time on court between these two – and you’d be foolish not to factor that into your handicap. With that said, the fact that Sinner has spent just under 15 hours on court is far more notable. We’ve seen the Italian go to battle with far inferior competition in the early rounds of slams for the past few seasons, and that has put him behind the proverbial eight-ball in late-stage matches against the best in the world.

In dropping just one set, Sinner has been far and away the best player in the draw over the last two weeks. I expect him to look like it here against a more fatigued Medvedev whose serve hasn’t quite hasn’t been as potent as we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. That’s forced him to work very hard, and as a result his all-world defending has dropped off a notch as well.

I expect Sinner, who is playing at a World No. 1 level, to get the better of what I expect to be a B-level Medvedev here. While the Russian does own a 6-3 record in the head-to-head, too, it should be said that even dating back to the their meeting at the 2021 ATP Finals, Sinner has matched the level of Medvedev in all of their encounters. With a win in their last three matches, I expect him to continue to be better than the World No. 3 and take care of this one in short order.