Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Odds, Pick, Prediction | Australian Open Semifinal Preview

Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner Odds, Pick, Prediction | Australian Open Semifinal Preview article feature image

NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.

Djokovic vs Sinner Odds

Djokovic Odds-195
 Sinner Odds+160
Over/Under41.5 (-11oo / -110u)
Time | How to WatchThursday, 10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

The first men's semifinal of the day in Melbourne will feature the two co-favorites to win the Australian Open entering the penultimate round when Novak Djokovic collides with Jannik Sinner in arguably the most anticipated match of the tournament thus far.

Will the 1o-time Australian Open champion find a way past a formidable challenger on the biggest stage as he's done on countless occasions, or will Sinner's recent success against Djokovic prove to be enough to power him to his first Grand Slam final?

Let's get into how to bet Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner in my Australian Open semifinal preview.

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Djokovic Cruising Despite Not Reaching Highest Level

Djokovic hasn't exactly produced his best tennis here in Melbourne, which ordinarily wouldn't be too great a concern entering a Grand Slam semifinal — a place he's been 47 times before. With that said, Djokovic has lost in matches over the last six years like these to some of the game's brightest young players, and he'll need to bring his best level to this match if he wants to find a way through Sinner.

The World No. 1 has now spent over 15 hours on court here in Australia, something he surely can't be happy about. He made quick work of some easy opponents in the third and fourth rounds, but he dropped a set to Taylor Fritz for the first time since he injured his abdomen against the American here in Melbourne a few years ago — an injury that nearly knocked him out of the tournament. He was also just a point away from dropping two sets to big-hitting Aussie Alexei Popyrin in the second round and was pushed to the limit for two and half sets by a qualifier in the first round.

Djokovic found a way to solve Fritz in what looked like a match that could be turning after the second set, but his 8-0 record against the World No. 12 surely played a part in that one. The head-to-head, at least recently, won't be quite as favorable here to Djokovic and he surely won't be able to rely on his opponent on the other side of the net getting tight or running out of ideas as to how to beat him.

Sinner Redefining His Game

Sinner has been the best player in the men's draw for the last week and a half. He's yet to drop a set here in Melbourne, spending nearly four fewer hours on court than his opponent here, and that's something that marks a huge improvement in his Grand Slam prospects.

For the last couple of years, even despite elevating his game to a top-10 level, Sinner has needed to use plenty of energy in the early rounds of slams trying to battle back against players he is significantly better than. It's caused him to look tired around this stage in a Grand Slam, and it's fair to say with those shaky starts coupled with some tight battles in the quarterfinal and semifinal stages, he's done a poor job of taking his chances and making life a bit easier on himself.

This run of dominance here in Melbourne is simply more of the same for Sinner, who transformed into something of a bulldog in 2023. He had the best season of his career, going 64-15 across all competitions, and by the end of the season he was mentally a much tougher player than he was in years past. His improvements led him past Djokovic on not one, but two occasions.

The World No. 4 took Djokovic down in the group stage of the ATP Finals, and despite losing to him in the final match in Turin, he turned right around just a week later and defeated Djokovic in the Davis Cup to help knock Serbia out of the event.

With two wins in his last three matches against Djokovic, and a history of playing him incredibly close throughout his career, Sinner will come into this match with more confidence than almost anyone in the world would have in a Grand Slam semifinal against the 24-time champion.

Djokovic vs Sinner Pick

I don't care who it is on the other side of the net. When you have a chance to bet on the best player alive in the draw as the underdog — you take it. Sinner's serve and play from the back of the court has been exceptional for the last two weeks and on paper he should be the favorite to come through this match. The issue, of course, is that Djokovic is nearly impossible to stop at this tournament, but given his wins over the World No. 1 just a few months ago, I think this match should have a much different complexion to it.

I can't stress enough how well both Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev played in the fourth round and in the quarterfinals, and both opponents served exceptionally. Sinner found a way to win every set he played against those guys, and his level right now is truly world class. He is head and shoulders above everyone who entered into this draw, including Carlos Alcaraz, and we should see him give Djokovic a run for his money.

With the Serb playing at slightly less than his A+ level, I think Sinner will finally finish the story he started two years ago at Wimbledon when he took a 2-0 lead over Djokovic before falling in five sets. Mix in that this match will be played in the heat, during the day — a setting which Djokovic does not like — and I think an upset is on the cards.

Pick: Sinner ML (+172 via FanDuel)

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