The History Behind Novak Djokovic’s Remarkable Wimbledon Odds

The History Behind Novak Djokovic’s Remarkable Wimbledon Odds article feature image

Simon Bruty/Getty. Pictured: Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic has already claimed the first two Grand Slam titles of the year — dominating in both Australia and in France with relative ease — and he's now a -175 favorite to win the third Slam of the year, Wimbledon.

The 23-time Grand Slam champion has won the last four iterations of the event and he's challenged, if not overtaken, Roger Federer for the claim of the best grass-courter of all-time.

But even these odds are a bit stunning to see.

Djokovic will come into Wimbledon with the shortest odds that he's ever had at the event, eclipsing the +100 price he entered the tournament with last year. The longest odds that he's ever won a Wimbledon from came in 2018, when he was +850 ahead of the Championships.

The -175 number in this year's odds represent the shortest that anyone has entered a Grand Slam event on the men's side since Rafael Nadal went into the 2010 French Open as a -250 favorite. He would go onto win the title.

Biggest Men's Grand Slam Favorites Since 2005

Odds from

TournamentFavoriteTournament Winner
2009 French OpenRafael Nadal (-400)Roger Federer (+500)
2010 French OpenRafael Nadal (-250)Rafael Nadal (-250)
2007 WimbledonRoger Federer (-250)Roger Federer (-250)
2006 WimbledonRoger Federer (-250)Roger Federer (-250)
2008 French OpenRafael Nadal (-200)Rafael Nadal (-200)
2007 US OpenRoger Federer (-200)Roger Federer (-200)
2006 US OpenRoger Federer (-200)Roger Federer (-200)
2005 US OpenRoger Federer (-200)Roger Federer (-200)

Historically speaking, big men's favorites in Grand Slam events have gone onto win the event. The lone exception in recent memory is the biggest favorite of all — Nadal in the 2009 French Open.

The king of clay entered the event with -400 odds, but was dealt a wild upset by Robin Soderling. Federer would go onto win his lone French Open crown that year.

The last time that Djokovic didn't convert on a pre-Slam odds-on favorite price was in 2021, when Daniil Medvedev beat Djokovic in the final as he looked to complete the Calendar Slam.

Before that it was 2020, when he was defeated by Pablo Carreno Busta in the US Open. Of course, Djokovic didn't even lose a set to Carreno Busta, but rather he was disqualified for hitting a line judge with a ball.

Typically, when he comes in as a favorite, he secures the title — particularly in recent years.

Since 2019, Djokovic has been a Slam tournament favorite on 11 occasions, and he's won seven titles. The losses came at the French Open in 2022 (Nadal), the 2021 US Open (Medvedev) and in the 2020 US Open (Carreno Busta — DQ).

Djokovic wasn't eligible to compete in the 2022 Australian Open and 2022 US Open due to his vaccination status. He would've been the favorite in each event had he played.

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Djokovic as Grand Slam Favorite Since 2019

Odds from

TournamentDjokovic's OddsTournament Winner
2023 Australian Open+110Novak Djokovic
2022 Wimbledon-115Novak Djokovic
2022 French Open+200Rafael Nadal (+400)
2021 US Open-125Daniil Medvedev (+500)
2021 Wimbledon-135Novak Djokovic
2021 Australian Open+125Novak Djokovic
2020 US Open-130Dominic Thiem (+1150)
2020 Australian Open+150Novak Djokovic
2019 US Open+125Rafael Nadal (+290)
2019 Wimbledon+150Novak Djokovic
2019 Australian Open+130Novak Djokovic

Will anyone be able to stop Djokovic at SW19 this time around? It feels unlikely, but anything can happen in tennis.

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