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Pedro Martinez vs. Cristian Garin Australian Open Odds, Preview & Best Bet (Jan. 18)

Pedro Martinez vs. Cristian Garin Australian Open Odds, Preview & Best Bet (Jan. 18) article feature image
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Credit: Matt King, Getty. Pedro Martinez hits a backhand at the 2021 Australian Open.

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Cristian Garin vs. Pedro Martinez

Garin Odds -137
Martinez Odds +110
Over/Under 38.5
Time 11:30 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Pedro Martinez (no, not that Pedro Martinez) has really established himself as one of the toughest asks on tour in his six or seven years on the pro circuit, picking up win after win at every level. He may not have the talent of his opponent on Tuesday, but it may not matter.

Cristian Garin, meanwhile, arrived on the ATP Tour to some fanfare, coming with a world-class pedigree and a promise from coaches that he could break through on all surfaces and become one of the best players in the world. While it’s hard to argue against a top-20 ranking, his work on hardcourts has been anything but special.

Who has the upper hand here? Let’s dive into the matchup.

Martinez Coming Off of Tough Win

Hailing from Spain and climbing the rankings by playing the majority of his matches on clay, many have Martinez pegged as a one-surface player. While it’s hard to argue that he’s at his best on the dirt — compiling a 308-148 record across all levels — it’s evident from watching him at Grand Slams in recent years that the feisty 24-year-old can win at any tournament.

Martinez is in Melbourne this week defending ranking points after two solid four-set wins at last year’s Australian Open over Yoshi Nishioka and Emiil Ruusuvuori — two strong hardcourt players. If not for an abdominal injury in his third-round match against Dusan Lajovic, we’d be talking about a guy coming off a run to the fourth round of a hardcourt Grand Slam, followed by a third-round run at Wimbledon and another win at the US Open. Let’s not forget he took a set off of Andrey Rublev and forced a second-set tiebreak, too.

While his record stands at 12-10 on hard courts at the ATP level since the start of 2020, it’s easy to see that there’s more to Martinez than meets the eye on this surface, and we can’t overlook him in these spots.

Martinez enters fresh off an impressive win over Federico Delbonis which turned into a massive fight, but was a great example of why it’s so hard to beat this guy. He brings an incredible amount of energy and is a hard worker on the court, taking chances when it’s wise. Prior to that, he had an impressive win over Alexei Popyrin last week in Sydney before falling to Dan Evans.

Garin Looking to Shake Off Clay Narrative

Like Martinez, Garin’s experience off of clay is incredibly limited. He’s 44-43 on the surface across all levels, and he’s compiled a 6-15 record on hard courts in the last three seasons. There are actually some nice wins to be find if you go back to 2018 and 2019, but it seems Garin has actually regressed on the surface since then.

Interestingly enough, Garin holds a 2-0 record over Martinez with both wins coming last year. He took him out three sets to one at Wimbledon before beating him 6-3. 6-3 on the clay in Bastad later in the year. While he may have more talent than Martinez and some more physical ability, it’s hard for him to really exhibit that on a hard court.

Garin likes to take his backhand early and create angles, but it’s really only possible when he gets short balls or when the ball kicks up into the air for him like on clay. He plays very slow points and is a good spot server, but it’s clear as day he’s not home on hard courts. His legs are also stronger than Martinez’s, but the Spainard is the better mover of the two and can hit with depth to create issues.

Martinez vs. Garin Betting Analysis

It’s not very surprising, given we have a match on a hardcourt between two clay-courters which won’t be a very popular one to bet, but the wrong player is favored in this match.

I’d set Martinez as a slight -125 or -130 favorite here and see tremendous value in taking the plus money still available at Caesars. He’s more accomplished on hard courts and is a terrible matchup for Garin. His consistent depth should eliminate the Chilean’s ability to move forward and control points.

Pick: Martinez +110

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