Qinwen Zheng vs Dayana Yastremska Odds, Prediction, Pick | Australian Open Semifinal Preview

Qinwen Zheng vs Dayana Yastremska Odds, Prediction, Pick | Australian Open Semifinal Preview article feature image

Andy Cheung, Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska.

Zheng vs Yastremska Odds

Zheng Odds-210
Yastremska Odds+165
Over/Under22.5 (+100 / -125)
Time | How to WatchWednesday, 4:45 a.m. ET | ESPN
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch Australian Open, click here.

What a juxtaposition between the two semifinals we have overnight from Melbourne Park in the women's singles draw.

Down in the bottom half, you have last year's hard-court slam winners and a rematch from the US Open final just a few months ago. In the top half? Two women who are making their Grand Slam semifinals debuts. It's great to see both Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska finally break through like this on the biggest stage, but it's not all that surprising, considering we have two of the bigger baseline hitters in the women's game involved.

Let's look more into Qinwen Zheng vs Dayana Yastremska in my Australian Open semifinal preview.

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Zheng Firing on All Cylinders

We expected a match last time around that could prove tricky for Zheng against a player in Anna Kalinskaya that could hit a flat ball, work angles well and play with sneaky pace, and we got just that, as Zheng dropped the first set.

We also knew that her power was far more potent and that if she locked in and hit her spots, she'd be the better player. We saw that as well in the final two sets as the 21-year old looked to be the far better player down the stretch.

This time around, the big-serving world No. 15 – who is set to join the top-10 for the first time in her career on Monday – is going to take on someone who won't be deterred by the big hitting and will likely look to stand firm on the baseline and try to hit with her in Yastremska.

The market has valued Zheng as a rather large favorite, and it's hard to disagree with that assessment.

She has the easier power and for my money, her biggest advantage comes on serve, where I do think she's a tad less vulnerable. That said, in the past she has struggled with landing her first delivery. Should that be the case the rest of the way in this event, be it in the semis or in a potential final, all three players remaining are more than capable of punishing second serves.

Yastremska Back From The Wilderness

Just a few years after Emma Raducanu stunned the world in New York by winning the US Open as a qualifier, Yastremska is looking to repeat that feat at Melbourne Park.

She'll be an underdog in both this match and the next (regardless of who she plays), but that hasn't stopped the Ukrainian up to this point. Yastremska was once No. 21 in the world and in recent seasons has seemingly fallen from grace, but her style of bludgeoning the ball from the baseline, for better or worse, has worked so far the last 10 days or so.

After needing three sets in each of her qualifying matches, Yastremska has managed four straight sets wins in her main draw run, including against Marketa Vondrousova, Victoria Azarenka and Linda Noskova.

Her reward is a return to the top-30 when the new rankings are released – a jump of 64 spots for now – and the ability to play the biggest events on tour for the rest of the 2024 campaign.

The question marks still remain regarding the sustainability of her game, and in this matchup I struggle find much she does more effectively than Zheng, who can match her power, but probably doesn't have to swing as hard from the baseline and who has more power behind her serve.

Yastremska will have to do some problem solving on court if she hopes to pull off yet another upset on Rod Laver Arena.

Zheng vs Yastremska Pick

It's tough to like much in this match the way everything is priced. The over 21.5 is juiced and feels expensive, and a 3.5-game spread seems just about right by my numbers.

I'm going to go ahead and suggest passing on this matchup at the current odds.

If Zheng were to somehow get down to -2.5, I'd get involved, but that isn't a move all that likely to happen.

Pick: Bet Zheng -2.5 games or better if possible

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