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Serena Williams vs. Harmony Tan Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Prediction (June 28)

Serena Williams vs. Harmony Tan Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Prediction (June 28) article feature image
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Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Serena Williams.

  • Serena Williams returns to the singles court with a Wimbledon match against Harmony Tan.
  • She's a solid favorite to pick up a victory.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down his thoughts and best bet for the match.

Williams vs. Tan Odds

Williams Odds -345
Tan Odds +270
Over/Under 21.5
Time | How to Watch 11:45 am ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

It’s been a year since Serena Williams last stepped on a tennis court and played singles, but she’s returned in a place she’s very familiar with.

Her first round opponent, Harmony Tan, will look to play spoiler on Williams’ return to Wimbledon.

Let’s look at where the value lies in this intriguing first round match.

Williams Facing Tough Singles Adjustment

While it’s not easy playing tennis at any professional level after a year layover, there is a significant gap in physicality between singles and doubles.

Williams made a good choice to play the doubles draw in Eastbourne last week alongside Ons Jabeur, but that doubles play won’t replicate the difficulty and intensity of singles.

Though Williams did play very well – particularly in her second match – she now faces a more challenging task. She’ll have to cover the whole court and endure longer rallies with greater variation.

This has been a great place for Williams to thrive throughout her career. The surface is perfect for her aggressive, first-strike tennis, and she’s been comfortable with less time and lower bounces.

After a year off of the tour, however? This won’t be a particularly pleasant place to play.

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Tan Solid On Grass Courts

The 24-year old Tan hasn’t played many professional matches on grass, but she’s found some success on the surface already.

Tan split her qualifying matches at Wimbledon last year and won three matches in Gaiba last week. Additionally, her Elo rating on the surface is a respectable 1440, better than her clay-court number.

The Frenchwoman isn’t the biggest hitter, nor the most gifted player, but she is crafty and is comfortable being patient. That’ll work to her advantage against a player that could very well struggle with rally tolerance early on.

A commitment to making Williams keep the ball in the court would be a solid strategy, at least until the American proves she’s ready to play extended rallies.

Even then, fitness could favor Tan as she’s been playing full matches in the past year while Williams has been recovering.

Betting Value

If anyone can come back from a year away from the sport and thrive it’s Williams, particularly in a tournament where she has found so much success.

However, this is going to be an uphill battle for her. Williams faces an incredibly difficult task in playing singles after a year away from the sport, and she’ll likely step right on center court, where the pressure is immense.

Tan possesses the calm mentality required to go about breaking down Williams, and by playing a very steady and stable game she’ll force Williams to dig deep from the beginning of the match.

That creates a few problems for Williams, who is almost certainly going to be lacking match fitness.

Only by playing competitive matches at the highest level can you replicate the conditions that you’ll face, and Williams hasn’t been able to do that.

Side with Tan to keep this competitive and contend to pull off a stunner.

Pick: 0.75u Tan +4.5 games | 0.25u Tan ML (+270)

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