Tuesday ATP Estoril & Munich Betting Odds, Predictions: Dominic Thiem a Fade Until Proven Otherwise (April 25)
Nikola Krstic/Getty. Pictured: Dominic Thiem
The ATP calendar continues with 250-level stops in Estoril and Munich this week, and while the fields won’t be particularly strong, there will still be some solid opportunities to take advantage of mispriced matchups.
With over a dozen matches to chose from on Tuesday, there are a couple of spots that fit that billing.
Let’s dive into the Tuesday matches that present great value.
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Egor Gerasimov (-140) vs. John Millman (+110)
Match delayed to Wednesday due to rain
John Millman recovered in Serbia to get his clay-court footing after a disappointing tournament in Monte Carlo.
The Aussie got past a rusty Dominic Thiem before putting up a great fight against the in-form Miomir Kecmanovic, who went on to take a set off of Novak Djokovic before ultimately falling to the world No. 1.
Over the two weeks, Millman has amassed an 84% hold rate — which is very solid — but he’s only totaled a 16% break rate, a touch disappointing on the surface.
With that being said, his opponent Egor Gerasimov has only garnered an 80% hold rate and 17% break rate over this clay swing. The Belarusian has garnered solid qualifying wins over the two weeks, but I’m not entirely sure why he’s being priced as a favorite like this.
Millman looked equal in level to Gerasimov, and the two have never met before. Millman has a clay Elo Rating of 1602 — over 100 points better than his counterpart — and he has the consistent ball-striking ability to deal with Gerasimov’s aggression and force errors out of him.
Gerasimov did find access against a similar player in style in Cameron Norrie, but the Brit is coming back from a bit of an injury and hasn’t been at his best recently.
A fully fit Millman presents a different challenge, and it’s hard to understand why Gerasimov is getting this credit.
I’ll take Millman at plus-money.
Pick: John Millman +110 via PointsBet
Dominic Thiem (-230) vs. Benjamin Bonzi (+175)
12:30 p.m. ET, ATP Estoril
The reality is that Thiem remains a valuable person to bet against until he displays that he’s fully fit and ready to compete at the level that he was once playing at.
Thiem, who is a US Open champion and Roland Garros/Australian Open finalist, is still recovering from a 2021 wrist injury that kept him out for about a year. He’s trying to make his way back to being a high-level tour player, but it still seems Thiem is a ways away from doing that.
The Austrian competed well against Millman last week, but his timing is off, and playing at the ATP level is brutal when you aren’t comfortable with your own game. We’ve seen him struggle in his Estoril preparations, and there aren’t many indications of optimism surrounding his play.
While Benjamin Bonzi tends to struggle on clay (it’s his worst surface to play on per Elo Ratings), the Frenchman is a capable player on the surface and will have the confidence of knowing he’s dealing with a low-confidence opponent.
Making an extra ball or extending pressure inside the court will be useful and an easy to understand strategy for Bonzi. The only way that he’ll be blown off the court is if he struggles to make shots. It’s really as simple as that.
I’m going to put my faith behind him, but it’s more of a belief that Thiem has to be faded until he shows a consistent level.
Pick: Benjamin Bonzi +3.5 games (-115 via DraftKings)
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