Wednesday ATP Italian Open Odds, Picks & Best Bets: Laslo Djere & Tommy Paul Worthy Spots (May 11)
Clive Brusnkill/Getty. Pictured: Tommy Paul hits a forehand at the Caja Magica in Madrid.
- With the second round of the Italian Open continuing on Wednesday, our tennis analyst has two best bets.
- He has plays on one favorite and one underdog.
- Check out Avery Zimmerman's picks and analysis below.
The Italian Open has featured some thrilling matches and quality tennis through a few days of main-draw action, and the event will continue with over two dozen matches set for Wednesday.
As the second round marches on, there are a few solid markets to look at, including Stan Wawrinka’s second match at the event following his first win in a year.
Here’s where I see value in the latest installment of second-round matches at the Italian Open.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Alex de Minaur (-165) vs. Tommy Paul (+134)
7:30 a.m. ET
For Alex de Minaur, his first-round matchup against Dusan Lajovic presented an excellent stylistic matchup, but in his second match in Rome, he’s tasked with a completely different type of player.
Tommy Paul is a rare American who is confident and capable on red clay courts, and he even took home a Junior French Open title back in 2015. Paul earned two qualifying wins over clay-court specialists in Rome last year before falling to Roberto Bautista-Agut in the first round.
The pair have met once before, playing recently at the Indian Wells Masters a couple of months ago. The conditions there are oddly similar to the ones the duo will be playing on Wednesday, despite the surface difference. Movement on hard courts and clay are substantially different, but the pace of the court and its grittiness will be almost identical.
In that match, de Minaur won two tight sets to earn a 7-6, 6-4 victory, but the victory was earned through incredibly tight margins. Paul and de Minaur both amassed seven break points, they won the same number of points on return, and a bit of clutch play helped the Aussie over the line.
While de Minaur has elevated his clay-court game to a new level this year, this is a hefty price for him, particularly against a player who had match points against Jannik Sinner last week and excelled in his first-round match against clay-courter Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
At +134, Paul is worth a play, and at any number above +120, I would take a shot on him. Even at that price, the 46% implied probability that’s being assigned to him is below the more accurate 50% baseline.
Pick: Tommy Paul Moneyline (+134 via PointsBet)
Laslo Djere (-260) vs. Stan Wawrinka (+205)
8:50 a.m. ET
The former world No. 3 Wawrinka capitalized on a drop in form from Reilly Opelka to capture an electric comeback victory in the first round. Wawrinka looked set to drop his third straight match in his return to competitive play, but he stepped up in the second set to earn an important win.
Unfortunately for Stan the Man, Opelka was just about the best opponent that he could have faced to open up his campaign, and Laslo Djere represents one of the worst matchups for him. The big-serving Opelka actually did well in Rome last year, qualifying for the semifinals of the event. However, that came when he was playing some of his best tennis, and he hasn’t recorded a win since his Houston Open title on April 10th.
Opelka lacked the rally tolerance of an average tour ball striker, and he couldn’t punish Wawrinka’s tense play.
Djere fell to Pablo Carreno Busta in a three-set battle in Rome a year ago, but the conditions here are well-suited to his game. Djere prefers the slow clay in the Italian capital, and his career results reflect higher performances in similar conditions.
On this type of court, it’s going to be incredibly tough for Wawrinka to earn free points. Djere is more steady on both wings right now, and the explosiveness that would’ve aided Wawrinka years ago in this matchup isn’t quite there.
Add on that Wawrinka struggled with fitness a few weeks ago in Monte Carlo, and this is a very tough situation for the Swiss to excel in.
Pick: Laslo Djere -3.5 Games (-118 via FanDuel)