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WTA Hamburg Tennis Picks & Predictions: Trust Aleksandra Krunic to Keep Momentum Going

WTA Hamburg Tennis Picks & Predictions: Trust Aleksandra Krunic to Keep Momentum Going article feature image
Credit:

Via Robert Prange/Getty Images. Pictured: Aleksandra Krunic.

  • WTA Hamburg continues on Tuesday, and our tennis analyst has a pair of best bets.
  • He's backing one underdog and one favorite on his card.
  • Check out David Gertler's picks and analysis below.

WTA Hamburg is off to an incredible start, and there are plenty of fun matches on Tuesday’s order of play.

I’ve found betting value in two of Tuesday’s matches, and you can find my best bets and previews below.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Katerina Siniakova (-500) vs. Laura Pigossi (+340)

5 a.m. ET

Katerina Siniakova got her Hamburg campaign off to a strong start, beating Daria Kasatkina 6-2, 2-6, 6-4. Siniakova won 68% of her second-serve return points and 49% of her return points overall. This allowed the Czech to break Kasatkina’s serve six times. However, Siniakova struggled on her serve, winning just 54% of her service points.

Siniakova is 116-66 on clay in her career but just 4-3 this season. Recently, she’s been very hit-or-miss with her game. Even in the second set of her win against Kasatkina, the Czech only won 44% of her service points and was broken three times.

However, Siniakova’s groundstrokes do cut through the court when she reins them in, and she’s very good at the net, as evidenced by her five Slam doubles titles, including most recently at Wimbledon this season.

Laura Pigossi came from a set down to defeat Reka Luca Jani 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 to advance to the second round of Hamburg. Pigossi effectively defused Jani’s first serve, winning 46% of her first-serve return points and breaking on four occasions. However, Pigossi’s own first serve will need to improve, as she only won 59% of her first serves against Jani.

Pigossi is a good clay-court player, with a 217-167 record as a professional. While Pigossi doesn’t have a big serve or a huge weapon from the baseline, she has a heavy forehand and a high rally tolerance. This allows the Brazilian to effectively take advantage of opponents’ dips in level.

Siniakova will be encouraged by her win over Kasatkina, but she hasn’t been at her best in recent matches and has struggled to maintain a high level for the vast majority of the season.

Pigossi is a tough opponent to face for a player as erratic as Siniakova has been. Pigossi will hit with depth and limit her unforced errors, forcing Siniakova to lower the margins on her groundstrokes to hit through the Brazilian.

Pick: Pigossi +5.5 Games (-125 via PointsBet)

Aleksandra Krunic (-350) vs. Sabine Lisicki (+240)

6:30 a.m. ET

Aleksandra Krunic made the final of Budapest last week, but she fell 3-6, 3-6 in the final to an on-fire Bernarda Pera. The defeat to Pera was the first time all week that Krunic had lost more than seven games in a match. The final was also Krunic’s first time in Budapest where an opponent won at least 65% of her first serves and at least 50% of her second serves against Krunic’s return game.

Krunic has a 175-104 record on clay in her career. She has a high rally tolerance and is very fast around the court, making it difficult for opponents to hit through her. While Krunic’s variety is best on lower-bouncing surfaces, her slices, drop shots and angles are tough to play regardless. The Serb also moves the ball around the court effectively.

Sabine Lisicki qualified for Hamburg, defeating Kateryna Baindl in a third-set tiebreaker to qualify. Lisicki was aggressive on return against both Baindl and Stefanie Voegele in the first qualifying round, winning 45% of her return points overall, including over 50% of her second-serve return points in both matches.

Lisicki is 72-65 on clay as a professional but has only played seven matches on the surface this year. Lisicki’s aggressive game, with her huge first serve, doesn’t suit clay particularly well, but she can hit through any surface at her best. Thus, it’s concerning for the German that she faced 20 break points and was broken seven times by Baindl.

Lisicki is playing in her home country of Germany, and Krunic might be slightly fatigued from Budapest, but that’s all Lisicki has going for her in this one. Krunic’s return game in Budapest was excellent, and she should neutralize Lisicki’s serve game.

In addition, Lisicki doesn’t move particularly well, and Krunic has done an excellent job recently of moving her opponents around the court and not allowing them to get comfortable from the baseline. Lisicki will struggle to get power from Krunic’s slices, as well.

Pick: Lisicki to Not Win a Set (-110 via FanDuel)

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