Mercury vs. Aces Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2025
Mercury at Aces
12:00 am • ESPN
Phoenix Mercury
16-2886
86 - 89
Las Vegas Aces
2-489
Mercury at Aces Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mercury 16-28 | +3 | +3-112 | o163.5-108 | +135 |
Aces 2-4 | u158.5 | -3-108 | u163.5-110 | -160 |
Michelob ULTRA ArenaParadise
Mercury vs. Aces Expert Picks
Tyler Shoemaker
Last 30d: 35-40-0 (-1.1u)
LVA +145 (Live)
5u
Joe Dellera
Last 30d: 17-30-0 (+2.7u)
S.Sabally o16.5 Pts+100
1u
The WNBA Finals start today and this has been a tougher matchup for Alyssa Thomas against A'ja Wilson. Sabally has really stepped up for Phoenix during this Playoff run and I expect that again tonight.
Sabally is averaging 17.9 ppg during the Playoffs and is coming off three straight 20+ point games against the Lynx. Now she's got a few extra days of rest before this Aces matchup. She's 2/4 on this line against the Aces this season but maxed at 30 minutes. She has seen about a 4 minute uptick to her averages during the Playoffs which helps as well.
Jim Turvey
Last 30d: 39-39-0 (+5.2u)
Over 159-114
0.35u
S.Sabally To Score 20+ Points Yes+220
0.3u
I CANT STOP BETTING ON SATOU
Daniel Mataya
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
PHX +3.5-115
1u
Buckets
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 42-31-1 (+1.3u)
A.Thomas u18.5 Rebs+Ast-115
0.58u
Just half a unit as I hate betting against AT, but RotoGrinders projections have her closer to 17.2 RA which I’m aligned with.
She averaged 18 RA per game this season over 31.3 minutes per game and it’s likely she gets closer to 35 minutes here, but I also expect her to defend A’ja a lot so it’s a tougher individual matchup.
Also worth noting this is a 7-game series so if there also happens to be a blowout (which I’m not predicting there will be), she’s not going to get full minutes so they can save her for Game 2. Just also something minor worth factoring in.
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 87-91-4 (-13.8u)
Under 161.5-112
1u
New Owner
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
PHX PK (Live)+142
1u
@KidPoker04
Brian Condon
Last 30d: 0-0-0 (+0.0u)
A.Wilson u26.5 Pts-115
1.59u
Mercury vs. Aces Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Mercury vs. Aces Public Betting Percentages
Mercury
Public
Aces
63%
Bets%
37%Money%
Betting Trends
- Aces are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Aces are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Aces are 12-11 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Aces' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 9 of Aces' 22 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24-21 | 12-10 | 12-11 | 22-17 | 2-4 |
| 21-23 | 12-10 | 9-13 | 13-17 | 7-6 |
Over/Under History
| overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23-22 | 9-13 | 14-9 | 19-20 | 4-2 |
| 18-25-1 | 9-13 | 9-12-1 | 15-15 | 3-9-1 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | N/A | N/A | 29-10 | 2-4 |
| 5-6 | N/A | N/A | 20-10 | 6-7 |
Last 5 Matchups
Mercury vs. Aces Injury Updates
Mercury Injuries
- Kelsey PlumG
Plum is out with leg
Out
- Natasha MackF/C
Mack is day-to-day with foot
Day-to-Day
- Marta SuarezF
Suarez is day-to-day with concussion
Day-to-Day
Aces Injuries
- NaLyssa SmithF
Smith is out for season with leg
Out for Season
- Janiah BarkerF
Barker is out for season with leg
Out for Season
Team Stats
Mercury
Aces
31-66 (47%)
Field Goals
33-72 (46%)
10-13 (77%)
Free Throws
14-20 (70%)
14-36 (39%)
3P
9-27 (33%)
35
Rebounds
33
20
Assists
24
Turnovers
4
Steals
9
4
Blocks
3
17
Fouls
12
Mercury vs. Aces Odds Comparison
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Mercury at Aces Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Mercury 16-28 | N/A | N/A |
Aces 2-4 | N/A | N/A |