Mercury vs. Aces Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2025
Mercury at Aces
12:00 am • ESPN
Phoenix Mercury
5-486
86 - 89
Las Vegas Aces
7-389
Mercury at Aces Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mercury 5-4 | +3 | +3-112 | o163.5-108 | +135 |
Aces 7-3 | u158.5 | -3-108 | u163.5-110 | -160 |
Michelob ULTRA ArenaParadise
Mercury vs. Aces Expert Picks
Boomer Betz
Last 30d: 131-112-2 (+31.5u)
PHX PK (Live)+142
1u
@KidPoker04
Brian Condon
Last 30d: 4-7-0 (+1.2u)
A.Wilson u26.5 Pts-115
1.59u
Jim Turvey
Last 30d: 34-50-0 (-15.3u)
S.Sabally To Score 20+ Points Yes+220
0.3u
I CANT STOP BETTING ON SATOU
Allan Lem
Last 30d: 117-99-6 (+5.1u)
A.Thomas u18.5 Rebs+Ast-115
0.58u
Just half a unit as I hate betting against AT, but RotoGrinders projections have her closer to 17.2 RA which I’m aligned with.
She averaged 18 RA per game this season over 31.3 minutes per game and it’s likely she gets closer to 35 minutes here, but I also expect her to defend A’ja a lot so it’s a tougher individual matchup.
Also worth noting this is a 7-game series so if there also happens to be a blowout (which I’m not predicting there will be), she’s not going to get full minutes so they can save her for Game 2. Just also something minor worth factoring in.
Joe Dellera
Last 30d: 18-34-0 (-5.3u)
S.Sabally o16.5 Pts+100
1u
The WNBA Finals start today and this has been a tougher matchup for Alyssa Thomas against A'ja Wilson. Sabally has really stepped up for Phoenix during this Playoff run and I expect that again tonight.
Sabally is averaging 17.9 ppg during the Playoffs and is coming off three straight 20+ point games against the Lynx. Now she's got a few extra days of rest before this Aces matchup. She's 2/4 on this line against the Aces this season but maxed at 30 minutes. She has seen about a 4 minute uptick to her averages during the Playoffs which helps as well.
Scott Rickenbach
Last 30d: 70-72-2 (-11.8u)
Under 161.5-112
1u
Jim Turvey
Last 30d: 34-50-0 (-15.3u)
Over 159-114
0.35u
Moneyline Hacks
Last 30d: 113-125-4 (+30.7u)
Under 160-110
1u
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Daniel Mataya
Last 30d: 15-18-0 (-1.2u)
PHX +3.5-115
1u
Buckets
Mercury vs. Aces Previews & Analysis
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Mercury vs. Aces Public Betting Percentages
Mercury
Public
Aces
63%
Bets%
37%Money%
Betting Trends
- Aces are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Aces are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Aces are 12-10 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Aces' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 12 of Aces' 22 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23-21 | 11-11 | 12-10 | 18-15 | 5-6 |
| 21-23 | 12-10 | 9-13 | 13-17 | 7-6 |
Over/Under History
| overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21-23 | 12-10 | 9-13 | 16-17 | 5-6 |
| 18-25-1 | 9-13 | 9-12-1 | 15-15 | 3-9-1 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
| overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | N/A | N/A | 26-7 | 4-7 |
| 5-4 | N/A | N/A | 20-10 | 6-7 |
Last 5 Matchups
Aces vs. Mercury Injury Updates
Aces Injuries
- Chelsea GrayG
Gray is out with leg
Out
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusF
Parker-Tyus is out with personal
Out
- A'ja WilsonC
Wilson is out with wrist
Out
Mercury Injuries
Team Stats
Mercury
Aces
31-66 (47%)
Field Goals
33-72 (46%)
10-13 (77%)
Free Throws
14-20 (70%)
14-36 (39%)
3P
9-27 (33%)
35
Rebounds
33
20
Assists
24
Turnovers
4
Steals
9
4
Blocks
3
17
Fouls
12
Mercury vs. Aces Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Mercury at Aces Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
|---|---|---|
Mercury 5-4 | o80.5-114 | u80.5-114 |
Aces 7-3 | o82.5-120 | u82.5-105 |