The Dallas Wings (11-8) and Connecticut Sun (4-15) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at PeoplesBank Arena in Hartford, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Wings are favored by -7.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 171.5 (-115o / -108u). The Wings are a -325 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +260 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Wings vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks.
Wings vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -113 | 171.5 -115o / -108u | -325 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -107 | 171.5 -115o / -108u | +260 |
- Wings vs. Sun Spread: Wings -7.5 (-113), Sun +7.5 (-107)
- Wings vs. Sun Over/Under: 171.5 (-115o / -108u)
- Wings vs. Sun Moneyline: Wings -325, Sun +260
- Wings vs. Sun Best Bet: Connecticut +4.5 in the First Half
Wings vs. Sun Preview
Dallas is obviously a much better team than Connecticut right now. The Sun have only won four games, but I do think they are a completely different team since Leila Lacan joined this squad. Even looking back at her arrival, the Sun have consistently been a much better team in the first half than they are in the second half of full games.
When you look at the full-season data, Dallas’s first-half net rating sits at -3.4, while Connecticut is at -6.2. However, if we narrow the sample size down to the last ten games — the stretch where Lacan has been active — Connecticut boasts a +6 net rating in the first half.
Dallas, on the other hand, has been one of the worst early-game teams in the league over that identical ten-game stretch, limping out to a miserable -10.5 first-half net rating.
The craziest part about Dallas is that they completely flip the script after halftime. Over those same ten games, their second-half net rating skyrockets to a +10.2. They always feel like they are safely in the game because of those late surges, meaning they rarely let games turn into massive first-half blowouts against us.
Wings vs. Sun Prediction
Because of this stark discrepancy, I think Connecticut is well-positioned to keep things close early on. I love Connecticut +4.5 in the First Half as a full one-unit play. Their ATS records back this up nicely: they are 11-8 overall, 6-4 at home, and an outstanding 8-2 in the first half since Lacan joined the rotation.
Additionally, the data sets up a perfect environment to mess around with one of my absolute favorite specialty bets: the first half/full game angle. You can bet Connecticut to win the first half outright, but for Dallas to come back and win the full game at +500 odds.
It perfectly encapsulates Dallas's habit of starting slow and dominating the second half. I highly recommend throwing a smaller 0.15-unit sprinkle on that tail outcome for a fun, high-value return.
Best Bet: Connecticut +4.5 in the First Half
