The Phoenix Mercury (8-15) and Las Vegas Aces (16-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 6:00 p.m. EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on Peacock.
The Aces are favored by -9.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 169.5 (-110o / -110u). The Aces are a -470 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +360 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | +360 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | -470 |
- Mercury vs. Aces Spread: Mercury +9.5 (-105), Aces -9.5 (-115)
- Mercury vs. Aces Over/Under: 169.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Aces Moneyline: Mercury +360, Aces -470
- Mercury vs. Aces Best Bet: Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 Points (-124; Play to Over 12.5)
Mercury vs. Aces Preview
The Las Vegas Aces are set to host the Phoenix Mercury looking to build on their strong momentum following a stellar 32-point performance from A'ja Wilson in their recent 88-80 victory over the Portland Fire.
Las Vegas currently commands the Western Conference with a 16-6 overall record and an impressive 11-4 mark in conference play.
A major catalyst for their success has been their league-leading ball movement, as the Aces average 22.3 assists per game, heavily anchored by point guard Chelsea Gray, who dishes out 7.3 assists per contest.
Offensively, Las Vegas is highly efficient, knocking down 48.7% of their shots from the field, which poses a significant challenge for a Phoenix defense that allows opponents to shoot 46.0%.
The Mercury enter this matchup with an 8-15 record, struggling particularly against high-caliber opponents with a 5-11 showing against teams above .500.
Phoenix relies on their outside shooting, netting 8.1 three-pointers per game, though that is slightly below the 9.0 triples Las Vegas typically surrenders.
This marks the third meeting between the two rivals this season, with the Aces claiming the most recent battle 86-76 back on June 18 behind a dominant 33-point game from Wilson.
Both teams are managing a few injuries heading into Saturday night, as the Aces will be without Janiah Barker due to a leg injury, while Dana Evans remains questionable.
The Mercury are missing Natasha Mack because of a foot injury, and Sami Whitcomb is currently a game-time decision with a knee issue.
Mercury vs. Aces Prediction
When evaluating the player prop market for this Western Conference showdown, the best value on the board lies with Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 Points.
Action PRO projects Gray for 13.47 Points in her matchup against the Mercury, giving us a nice 13.9% edge against the market when compared to her current prop line of over/under 11.5, which is good enough to mark the under with an A grade in our system.
While Gray has stayed under this mark in her last two outings, scoring eight and ten points respectively, those lower scores have artificially deflated her prop line for this game.
Looking at her broader trend, she has actually cleared this point total in four of her last eight games, and her season average sits comfortably higher than the current line.
Savvy bettors will want to lock this in early, as some sportsbooks have already begun adjusting to the sharp action and are pushing the line up to 12.5 points.
Best Bet: Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 Points (-124; Play to Over 12.5)
