The Phoenix Mercury (1-0) and Golden State Valkyries (1-0) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. EDT at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on KPIX+.
The Valkyries are favored by -2.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 158.5 (-110o / -110u). The Valkyries are a -144 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Valkyries predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Valkyries Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -144 |
- Mercury vs. Valkyries Spread: Valkyries -2.5 (-110 ), Mercury +2.5 (-110)
- Mercury vs. Valkyries Over/Under: 158.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Valkyries Moneyline: Mercury +120, Valkyries -144
- Mercury vs. Valkyries Best Bet: Kayla Thornton Over 11.5 Points
Mercury vs. Valkyries Preview
The Mercury entered the 2026 season with plenty of questions following the departure of Satou Sabally and the injury to Kathryn Westbeld. However, they answered those concerns emphatically in their opener, a 99-66 statement win over Las Vegas.
Alyssa Thomas remains the engine of this team, nearly notching a triple-double (20 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds) in the opener. Alongside her, the addition of Natasha Mack has provided a massive boost to the interior; Mack hauled in 15 rebounds and chipped in 10 points in her debut.
The Mercury's perimeter remains dangerous with Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner, both of whom scored 13 points in the first game. Phoenix plays with a chip on its shoulder, looking to prove it belongs in the title-contender tier despite a preseason ranking that sat outside the top five.
The Valkyries started their 2026 campaign exactly where they left off last year: winning. Their 91-80 victory over the Seattle Storm showcased a balanced attack and a stifling veteran presence.
Kayla Thornton, the franchise's first-ever All-Star, continues to be the heart of the Golden State rotation. Thornton logged 30 minutes in the opener, finishing with 13 points and 8 rebounds.
The Valkyries also bolstered their frontcourt this offseason by signing three-time champion Kiah Stokes, who provides the defensive anchor they lacked at times last season. With Veronica Burton facilitating and Thornton acting as the primary wing threat, Golden State’s offense looks more polished and deliberate than it did in its expansion year.
Mercury vs. Valkyries Prediction
This projection from the PRO system looks particularly sharp, given Thornton’s role and recent history.
Thornton averaged 14.0 points per game last season and scored in double figures in 18 of her 22 appearances. In the 2026 opener, she picked up right where she left off, putting up 13 points on healthy volume.
She is a virtual lock for 30+ minutes in competitive games. In a matchup against a Phoenix team that just put up 99 points, the Valkyries will need Thornton’s scoring on the floor for the duration to keep pace.
Thornton’s versatility allows her to operate as a stretch forward. By pulling one of Alyssa Thomas or Natasha Mack out to the perimeter, Thornton creates her own lanes or finds open looks from deep—a facet of the game where Phoenix struggled to rotate effectively in the preseason.
PRO Projections identify a clear edge here because the market is still pricing Thornton based on her career utility-player role rather than her current reality as the Valkyries' primary scoring wing.
Best Bet: Kayla Thornton Over 11.5 Points
