The Phoenix Mercury (12-22) and Los Angeles Sparks (12-19) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Galen Center in Los Angeles, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Sparks are favored by -1.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 178.5 (-110o / -110u). The Sparks are a -130 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Sparks predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Sparks Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 178.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 178.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Mercury vs. Sparks Spread: Sparks -1.5 (-115 ), Mercury +1.5 (-105)
- Mercury vs. Sparks Over/Under: 178.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Sparks Moneyline: Mercury +110, Sparks -130
- Mercury vs. Sparks Best Bet: Sparks -130
Mercury vs. Sparks Preview
This one is tough for Phoenix after losing Kelsey Plum again. The Mercury are 12-22 and coming off a loss to the Mystics, but the bigger concern is Plum’s injury, as she’ll miss her first game against her former team with a lower left leg injury.
Plum had been making an immediate impact since arriving in Phoenix, averaging 22.3 points this season and scoring 20, 19 and 25 points in her first three games with the Mercury. She played just 14 minutes against Washington before being pulled, so replacing that production will be a major challenge.
The Sparks, meanwhile, are 12-19 and sit sixth in the Western Conference. Los Angeles nearly erased a 19-point deficit against the Valkyries, but ultimately came up short despite a balanced scoring effort led by Nneka Ogwumike's 16 points and Erica Wheeler's 15.
With Plum out, the offensive burden shifts heavily toward Phoenix's remaining scorers. The Sparks have shown they can generate enough offense to make this competitive, and without Plum's scoring punch, I wouldn't be surprised if Los Angeles has the edge here.
Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction
Evan Abrams' Short Bad Favorites Bet Lab System targets situational opportunities where modest favorites with subpar win records are severely undervalued.
While casual bettors often hesitate to lay a price on an inconsistent team, oddsmakers set these lines based on immediate, isolated matchups rather than surface-level records. When a short favorite holds a distinct health or lineup advantage, backing them exploits market hesitation and uncovers clear betting value.
Tonight’s Phoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks matchup perfectly fits this system profile. The Mercury suffer a massive blow with star Kelsey Plum ruled out after suffering a leg injury against Washington. Plum had been carrying Phoenix’s offense, averaging 22.3 points. Replacing her elite scoring output will be an overwhelming task for a thin Mercury roster. Meanwhile, Los Angeles enters well-positioned to capitalize behind a balanced offensive rotation led by Nneka Ogwumike and Erica Wheeler.
With Plum sidelined, Phoenix loses its primary engine, handing Los Angeles a decisive situational edge. Trust the short-favorite system and back Sparks Moneyline.
Best Bet: Sparks -130
