The Phoenix Mercury (8-16) and Minnesota Lynx (17-6) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. EDT at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on Peacock.
The Lynx are favored by -13.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 169.5 (-114o / -106u). The Lynx are a -800 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +520 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -118 | 169.5 -114o / -106u | +520 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -104 | 169.5 -114o / -106u | -800 |
- Mercury vs. Lynx Spread: Mercury +13.5 (-118), Lynx -13.5 (-104)
- Mercury vs. Lynx Over/Under: 169.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Mercury vs. Lynx Moneyline: Mercury +520, Lynx -800
- Mercury vs. Lynx Best Bet: Mercury +13.5
Mercury vs. Lynx Preview
The Phoenix Mercury are coming off one of the most brutal outings in league history, absorbing a 106-58 blowout loss against the Las Vegas Aces on Saturday.
However, looking past that single extreme outlier reveals a team that has been significantly more competitive on the road than their overall record implies.
Setting aside the Aces game, the Mercury have actually proven to be a tough road out since June 1. Outside of that Saturday disaster, Phoenix’s road contests during this stretch have been settled by an average margin of just 8.25 points, with multiple outright victories mixed in.
With a massive 12.5-point cushion in hand tonight, Phoenix is primed for a classic bounce-back performance as the betting market severely overreacts to their recent blowout loss.
The Minnesota Lynx sit atop the WNBA standings with a dominant 17-6 record, and they hold a prior 111-77 blowout victory over Phoenix on their resume.
On surface power ratings, laying double digits with Minnesota looks like a slam dunk. However, a closer look at Minnesota's venue splits reveals a surprising trend: the Lynx have actually been far less dominant at home than on the road this season.
- Road Record: 10-2 (.833)
- Home Record: 7-4 (.636)
Target Center hasn't provided the flawless cover environment casual bettors expect, as the Lynx have frequently allowed inferior opponents to hang around and cover late spreads in Minneapolis.
Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction
Public money is understandably lining up to lay the points with Minnesota following Phoenix's 48-point loss to Las Vegas.
However, our "Big Dogs on Road Trip" system highlights this exact situation as an optimal spot to fade the noise and grab the inflated points.
With Minnesota sporting a noticeably lower cover rate at home (7-4 overall record) and Phoenix historically staying within single digits on the road prior to Saturday's anomaly, 13.5 points is simply too much padding to pass up.
Expect a focused, proud effort from Phoenix to keep this game within striking distance.
Best Bet: Phoenix Mercury +13.5 (-118, FanDuel)
