The Portland Fire (14-20) and Phoenix Mercury (13-22) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Mercury are favored by -5,5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 178.5 (-110o / -110u). The Mercury are a -218 favorite to win outright, while the Fire are +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into our Fire vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks.
Fire vs. Mercury Odds, Pick
| Fire Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 178.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 178.5 -110o / -110u | -218 |
- Fire vs. Mercury Spread: Mercury -5.5 (-105), Fire +5.5 (-115)
- Fire vs. Mercury Over/Under: 178.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Fire vs. Mercury Moneyline: Fire +180, Mercury -218
- Fire vs. Mercury Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points
Fire vs. Mercury Preview
The Phoenix Mercury host the Portland Fire looking to defend their home court in a Western Conference clash.
Portland enters the matchup following a narrow 84-82 victory over the Seattle Storm, fueled by a strong 20-point performance from Holly Winterburn.
Sitting at 14-20 overall and 5-11 within conference play, the Fire have shown real grit in tight contests this season, holding a impressive 4-2 mark in one-possession games.
Phoenix comes in at 13-22 on the year and holds an 8-10 record against Western Conference opponents. A key factor to watch will be perimeter shooting, as Portland averages 10.2 made 3-pointers per game, which is slightly above the 9.9 triples Phoenix allows on average.
Meanwhile, the Mercury connect on 7.8 attempts from deep per night against a Portland defense that surrenders 9.1 per game.
This is the second meeting between the two clubs this season, following Phoenix's 78-72 victory on June 6, where DeWanna Bonner poured in 19 points for the Mercury to top Sarah Ashlee Barker's 15-point outing for the Fire.
Injury-wise, Portland remains without Sania Feagin due to a left knee issue, while Phoenix continues to miss guard Kelsey Plum with a lower left leg injury.
Fire vs. Mercury Prediction
For this matchup, the strongest betting angle points toward Phoenix Mercury star Alyssa Thomas clearing her points threshold.
Current lines sit at Over 15.5 Points, but analytical tracking from Action PRO projects her to hit around 17.85 points. That dynamic gap provides roughly an 18% edge against the market.
Thomas has been a steady foundation for the Mercury all season, averaging 14.8 points alongside 7.4 rebounds per contest.
While bettors might pause after seeing her go under this line in her last three outings, it is worth noting she still delivered a 16-point performance against Los Angeles on August 11.
That temporary dip came immediately after an impressive hot streak where she smashed the over in five straight games.
Considering the current injury dynamic with Kelsey Plum sidelined, Thomas should see plenty of volume and efficiency against Portland's defense, making the Over 15.5 Points a high-value play.
Best Bet: Alyssa Thomas Over 15.5 Points
