The Connecticut Sun (3-17) and Los Angeles Sparks (6-14) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 6:00 p.m. EDT at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on NBCS-BOS.
The Sparks are favored by -11.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 161.5 (-110o / -110u). The Sparks are a -650 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +475 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sun vs. Sparks prediction and WNBA picks.
Sun vs. Sparks Odds, Pick
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -114 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | +475 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -106 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
- Sun vs. Sparks Spread: Sparks -11.5 (-106 ), Sun +11.5 (-114)
- Sun vs. Sparks Over/Under: 161.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Sun vs. Sparks Moneyline: Sun +475, Sparks -650
- Sun vs. Sparks Best Bet: Sun +11.5
Sun vs. Sparks Preview
The Sun are struggling, there's simply no other way to put it. They did recently beat the Storm, but they've lost 11 of their past 12 and are losing by an average of 16 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Sparks are looking to get on track. Los Angeles has lost three of four and is just 3-7 over its past 10. Strangely, the Sparks are 5-6 on the road, but just 1-8 at home — a trend they'll look to start fixing tonight.
Sun vs. Sparks Prediction
This system focuses only on games after a non-close loss — defined as a margin of defeat worse than seven points. These situations heighten market negativity and inflate the next spread, but this system suggests that WNBA teams — even those with poor records — can respond competitively, especially when lines cross a key value threshold like 11.5 or more.
This system captures max line inflation, which has driven by poor optics, not predictive fundamentals.
Backing bad teams is scary, but this system is 10-8 (56%) with a 6% ROI on the season. Lifetime, it is 147-94-4 (61%) and has generated an 18% ROI.
Best Bet: Sun +11.5
