WNBA Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Lynx vs Dream, Sun vs Mercury (Tuesday, July 18)
Erica Denhoff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: DeWanna Bonner
Action Network contributor and WNBA betting expert Jim Turvey joined host Maria Marino on the BUCKETS Podcast on Tuesday to break down the WNBA betting slate, including best bets from both games.
Be sure to subscribe to the BUCKETS Podcast wherever you find your podcasts to get all the latest episodes throughout the WNBA season. You can also read about Tuesday's best bets below.
Lynx vs. Dream Odds
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 170.5 -110 / -110 | +215 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 170.5 -110 / -110 | -255 |
Jim Turvey: I think this is a night for favorites. The Atlanta Dream are favored, in part, because they are home. They opened up at -3.5, which kind of implies that the books see them as a very small favorite over the Lynx. I see them as a much bigger favorite. I have this number at -7.5, almost -8.
I think part of what the number has baked in is that the Dream aren't always at the top of their game this season. They started 5-7 and had some frustrating losses to teams that you wouldn't expect them to lose to. However, they have now rattled off six straight, and Rhyne Howard looks like she is a completely different player. It looked for a second that she may have been in that sophomore slump, but she has broken out of that. Maybe it was that All-Star snub, but whatever it was, it's working.
I think the bigger reason why I'm going to be heavily on the Dream is because the Lynx have been really streaky. A second ago, they were 9-9, above the Dream in the standings, and looking great. However, if you dug deeper, you could see it was a lot of fool's gold. They started 1-7, beat a shorthanded Sparks team three times, beat the Storm twice, who are arguably the worst team in the league, beat the Mercury twice, who are at the bottom of the standings, and beat the Fever, who are not a playoff team. There is not a single impressive win on the Lynx resume from that stretch. They did beat the Mystics early in the season for their first win, which was probably their most impressive.
This Lynx team is a team that can take care of the other bottom-feeders in the league, which makes sense with a coach like Cheryl Reeve, and they'll probably be right around the eight seed when it comes to the end-of-season standings. However, in terms of this matchup, the Dream are just a much better team.
The Dream have beaten solid teams, they've taken care of business against bad teams, and they are playing a lot better right now. This is a team that I had pegged as one of my favorites to go over their win total and really surprise some folks before the season. At the start of the season, that did not appear to be the case at all, but in the last couple of weeks, they have really turned it around.
Sometimes momentum can be thrown off after the break, but I don't see this team losing it to the extent that they really have to worry about this Lynx team today. I would play them up to -6.5, even though I have the spread a little bit higher, because I want to have that edge.
Pick: Dream -5.5 (Bet to -6.5) |
Sun vs. Mercury Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 162.5 -106 / -114 | -350 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 162.5 -106 / -114 | +265 |
Jim Turvey: If you're on WNBA Twitter whatsoever, you know the running joke of the disrespeCT, because the Connecticut Sun are always saying they are disrespected. This line opened at 4.5, and has already moved a little bit, and I think it will keep moving. I make this number Sun -12, so I really have this game as a big, big edge for the Sun.
They did lose Bri Jones, but it seems like the books keep thinking that matters more than it actually does. It did seem to hurt them in their losses against the Aces and the Liberty, since those are the two teams where you really need to have that star-level ability. However, the Sun are as good at "next person up" as any team in the league. They have really not missed a step without Jones in the lineup against every team that is not in the upper-echelon. Those are their only two losses since Jones went out, and Alyssa Thomas is playing like an MVP since Jones went out.
I think this is about as mispriced an opening line as we've seen in a while. We got a bunch of those at the beginning of the season, and they disappeared, so it's nice to see one of these again where I have this made much differently than the books. I'm going to be all over the Sun with a lot of leeway here.
Pick: Sun -7.5 |
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