The eternal Group Stage of the World Cup is finally nearing its wrap-up, and tiny Cape Verde has been one of the stories of the tournament.
And the story might not be done just yet.
On Friday night, Cape Verde plays Saudi Arabia in the Group H finale, knowing a win or even a draw is almost certain to see the team through the knockout rounds in their first World Cup, a remarkable feat.
And sure, that would be awesome — but I'm dreaming bigger.
What if Cape Verde didn't just advance forward? What if it won its entire group, a group featuring Uruguay and World Cup favorite Spain?
It sounds crazy, but it can still happen for this tiny Cinderella island nation if you truly believe.
Cape Verde Parlay Picks
Most books are pricing Cape Verde around +2500 to win Group H, but you can build one of the long-shot scenarios for a Cape Verde group win as a parlay at a much juicier number, so let's do that and sprinkle a little magic dust on a fairy tale carpet ride.
Cape Verde sits on two points right now, and Spain (four) and Uruguay (two) play each other. Cape Verde gets to five with a win, so we need to start with either a draw or a Uruguay win, which puts one of those two at five points.
Spain is the favorite for a reason, and though Uruguay could always win, a draw is a pretty good result for both teams as Spain would likely win the group and Uruguay almost certainly goes through. It's a very reasonable outcome expectation, so we'll start there.
That draw puts Spain at five points, so a Cape Verde win ties them at five — but the tiny island would still be four goals behind on goal differential, the next tiebreaker.
Now look, just advancing would be pretty sweet for Cape Verde, but if they get up a couple goals early and start feeling themselves, they could decide to let it rip and go for it all against a Saudi side that's already allowed five goals!
A Spain-Uruguay draw is priced at +330 at FanDuel. Cape Verde scoring at least four goals (Home Team Over 3.5 Goals) is +2200.
We can parlay those two outcomes together at +9790 at FanDuel and dream a little dream on Friday night — and the best part is, we haven't even locked ourselves into Cape Verde having to win the group!
Pushing forward for goals could leave the defense open, and maybe it ends something like 4-2 Cape Verde. That's still a dream win for the team and through to the next round without winning the group, but it hits both legs of our parlay if the draw comes true.
You can also juice this one further pretty easily.
Add Cape Verde to score the first goal, and we're up to 102-1, and it makes sense since we want the team on the front foot and aggressive early. Add "goal scored in both halves" instead, since we need four, and that gets to +8650.
Team or player shots overs make sense for Cape Verde, too, or perhaps an anytime goal scorer if one catches your eye. Now you're getting some wild numbers by limiting outs, but even Cinderella is allowed to dream a little sometimes.
Let's have some fun on Friday night and watch history happen.
Bet Spain-Uruguay draw and Cape Verde 4+ goals as a parlay at +9790, and may the odds be ever in our favor.
