Shakur Stevenson vs. Felix Caraballo Odds, Picks & Prediction: The Smart Way to Bet Boxing’s Return

Credit:

Steve Marcus/Getty Images. Pictured: Shakur Stevenson waits in a neutral corner at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Jun 09, 2020, 07:30 PM EDT
  • The updated betting odds for Tuesday's Top Rank Boxing main event list Shakur Stevenson as a -500 favorite to win by KO/TKO over Felix Caraballo (+1600 moneyline underdog).
  • Stevenson makes his return to the ring after his last fight was canceled when the COVID-19 pandemic began.
  • Check out the best way to get value on Stevenson in tonight's matchup.

Fans of the sweet science have had to wait a bit longer than MMA fans for fights to fights materialize in the ring since COVID-19 shut down the sport, but Boxing is officially back on Tuesday night.

WBO featherweight titlist and 2016 Olympic silver medalist Shakur Stevenson (13-0, 7 KO) will headline Top Rank Boxing’s first card since the start of the pandemic on ESPN (7 p.m. ET) against Felix Caraballo (13-1-2, 9 KO). The 10-round bout will be the last of a five-fight card that will take place without fans inside the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.


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Stevenson vs. Caraballo Odds

Odds via DraftKings

Prop Stevenson Caraballo
Win by KO/TKO -500 +2500
Win by Decision +350 +4000
Draw +3300 +3300
Win in Rounds 1-2 +425 +8000
Win in Rounds 3-4 +333 +8000
Win in Rounds 5-6 +350 +8000
Win in Rounds 7-8 +500 +8000
Win in Rounds 9-10 +850 +8000

Clearly there is a massive divide here in skill and the odds reflect that. Stevenson is  such a massive favorite in this fight at DraftKings (-10000), there’s not much value in betting hime to win on the moneyline.

The odds are shaded heavily toward Stevenson by knockout, with the most likely round grouping for him winning at 5-6 — the over/under is set at 5.5 rounds as well.

Stevenson vs. Caraballo Betting

There are so many unknown variables in this fight. Stevenson’s trainer, Kay Koroma, won’t be in the corner because another fighter he trains tested positive for COVID-19 recently. Due to the contact tracing regulations set by the Nevada State Athletic Commission, Koroma won’t be able to stay in the bubble site set up for Top Rank fighters taking part in this event.

There’s also the unknown surrounding the impact of testing and the extended layoff for Stevenson. The featherweight champ was scheduled to defend his belt in a fight against Miguel Marriaga on March 14, but it was canceled two days prior out of an abundance of caution due to the virus.

That might lead one to believe that Stevenson is coming into this bout closer to being in top shape, but the uncertainty surrounding sports back in March could have pushed the 22-year old in the other direction in terms of training.

Lastly, there isn’t a ton of film on Caraballo. He has never fought outside of his native Puerto Rico and Stevenson himself said he has only watched one round on his opponent.

All of those things combined don’t give me a ton of confidence that tonight will be an easy night for the young phenom. With that said, I don’t see a fighter of Stevenson’s caliber losing unless he gets extremely reckless.

I’m leaning toward taking the over 5.5 rounds (-112) as the level of conditioning and nerves will have some impact early in the fight. If you’re looking to bet Stevenson to win inside the distance, I think there’s some value on Stevenson in Rounds 7-8.

Pick: Over 5.5 Rounds (-112)

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