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Oscar Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions, Odds: CODA Favored Over Power of the Dog In Tight Race, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees

Oscar Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions, Odds: CODA Favored Over Power of the Dog In Tight Race, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees article feature image
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FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Cast and filmmakers of CODA, nominee for Best Adapted Screenplay

  • CODA is the Best Adapted Screenplay favorite at the 2022 Oscars.
  • It's a tight race between the favorite and Power of the Dog in what could be a precursor to Best Picture.
  • Our experts debate the category and make their predictions below.

Updated Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees & Odds

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
CODA -230 69.70%
The Power of the Dog +220 31.25%
The Lost Daughter +500 16.67%
Drive My Car +1600 5.88%
Dune +2400 4%
Oscar odds for Best Adapted Screenplay nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26.

Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions

Collin Whitchurch: The WGAs and BAFTAs were in agreement here, both awarding their top prizes to CODA. Thus, it’s a little surprising to see that film with only a slim lead in the betting odds.

The WGAs and BAFTAs have agreed on Best Adapted Screenplay nine times since 2000, and the only time they incorrectly predicted the Academy Award was in 2009, when Precious beat out Up In The Air (considered one of the bigger Academy Awards upsets in recent history).

You could bet on another upset here, but I don’t see the value in any of the films trailing CODA. I would bet that win to -250.

Pick: CODA -140
Deserves to win: Drive My Car

Collin Wilson: There are no long-term trends for this category, which does not always win the award for Best Picture. Last year, The Father defeated Nomadland while previous winners such as Jojo Rabbit and BlackKkKlansman were not close to winning Best Picture. The trend over recent years is more and more non-fiction films being nominated and winning.

The leaders on the odds board are two movies that are also fighting for Best Picture. With odds flipping between CODA and The Power of the Dog, the Netflix-produced The Lost Daughter has captured plenty of critics attention with first- and second-place votes.

With over 11% of those critics choosing The Lost Daughter, the correct odds are closer to +770. As the top two movies duke it out, consider throwing a low-sized bet on the movie that has captured the attention of the voting base.

Pick: The Lost Daughter +800


More 2022 Oscar Predictions

  • A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
  • Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby’s experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
  • 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.

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