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Best Director Oscar Predictions, Odds: Jane Campion A Heavy Favorite For Power of the Dog, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees

Best Director Oscar Predictions, Odds: Jane Campion A Heavy Favorite For Power of the Dog, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees article feature image
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Frazer Harrison/Getty Images. Pictured: Best Director nominee Jane Campion (Power of the Dog)

  • Jane Campion seems like a slam-dunk winner for Best Director at the 2022 Oscars.
  • Campion is a -2400 favorite, far ahead of Steven Spielberg or any of the other nominees.
  • Will the Power of the Dog director take home the top prize tonight? Our experts discuss below.

Updated Best Director Nominees & Odds

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) -2400 96%
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) +2300 4.17%
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) +2300 4.17%
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) +2300 4.17%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) +2900 3.33%
Odds for Best Director nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26.

Best Director Predictions

Collin Whitchurch: A category that usually gives us at least a little bit of unpredictability is anything but this year.

Jane Campion’s -2400 odds for Best Director are right in line with everything we’ve seen from the awards leading up to the Academy Awards.

The DGA and BAFTAs have given their Best Director awards to the same nominee every single year since 2015, and in each instance except one (Bong Joon-ho over Sam Mendes in 2019), the Academy has agreed.

There’s no intrigue here, nor is there any betting value.

Pick, but no bet: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) -2400

Chris Raybon: After winning the top prize for directors at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critics Choice and DGA, Campion is predicted to win by 100% of editors and 96.4% at Gold Derby, meaning her odds should be closer to -5450!

I’m not saying you should bet this category (you really shouldn’t), I’m just saying there’s no value on anyone else.

Pick, but no bet: Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) -2400


More 2022 Oscar Predictions

  • A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
  • Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby’s experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
  • 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.

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