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Best Supporting Actor Oscar Predictions, Picks: Troy Kotsur Favored Over Kodi Smit-McPhee, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees

Best Supporting Actor Oscar Predictions, Picks: Troy Kotsur Favored Over Kodi Smit-McPhee, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees article feature image

Eamonn M. McCormack/Getty Images for Critics Choice Association. Pictured: Best Supporting Actor nominee Troy Kotsur

  • Troy Kotsur is favored to take home the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his role in CODA.
  • Kotsur is favored over Kodi Smit-McPhee for Power of the Dog, but is there value on the underdogs?
  • Our experts break down the category with analysis and predictions below for the Academy Awards.

Updated Best Supporting Actor Nominees & Odds

NomineeOddsImplied Probability
Troy Kotsur (CODA)-48082.76%
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)+41019.61%
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)+25003.85%
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)+35002.78%
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)+35002.78%
Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actor nominees via FanDuel and as of March 26.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Collin Whitchurch: Yet another category that saw significant odds movement based on preceding awards, Troy Kotsur has surged ahead of Kodi Smit-McPhee and Ciaran Hinds after claiming both the SAG and BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor.

Those two awards shows have matched up for Best Supporting Actor in each of the last four years prior to 2022, and both times they correctly predicted the winner at the Oscars. In fact, the last time the Academy went to someone who didn't win either award was way back in 2005, when George Clooney bested Paul Giamatti (SAG) and Jake Gyllenhaal (BAFTA).

All of that makes Kotsur a seemingly slam-dunk winner in a category that has been devoid of drama for a while now, and I'm surprised Kotsur isn't a stronger favorite than the 77.78% implied probability his -350 odds suggest.

I would bet Kotsur to -500.

Pick: Troy Kotsur (CODA) -350
Deserves to win: Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

Collin Wilson:The pure definition of the word ‘buzz’ might be what has happened to the odds of anything on the betting board associated with the movie CODA. For this specific category, Troy Kotsur has swept numerous awards this season for his role as a deaf father. While the Academy is familiar with mother Marlee Matlin, winner of Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God’in 1986, Kotsur has taken massive steam over 25-year-old Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog.

Best Supporting Actor is generally won by older actors and can often be referred to as a lifetime achievement award. While Kotsur has a checkmark in the age department, 100% of Gold Derby critics make Kotsur the winner in this category.

While Smit-McPhee played a crucial role in The Power of the Dog, plenty of those scenes came in tandem with Benedict Cumberbatch. Kotsur’s performance is in a movie with no nominees for Best Actor or Actress, allowing his character as the backbone of the family to shine. This is one instance where the betting favorite is heavily underpriced.

More 2022 Oscar Predictions

  • A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
  • Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby's experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
  • 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.

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