Which British Open Golfers Are Seeing Sharp Head-to-Head Betting Movement?
Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Rose
- Odds for the British Open have now been posted for a quite a while, so we can take a look at movement to see which golfers bettors are buying or selling.
- Below I hit on the golfers seeing an increase or decrease in their head-to-head odds, as well as which studs are getting bets.
- At the bottom of the article, I have a table with line movement on every head-to-head prop.
Whether in betting or DFS, it’s wise to follow the markets and see which golfers are getting heavily bet throughout the week. Particularly in DFS, prices are fixed, which means if a player moves from 50-1 to win the tournament to 30-1, his DraftKings salary won’t budge, leading to potential value.
On that note, let’s walk through the head-to-head matchups this week and see which golfers have seen positive and negative line movement. At the bottom of this piece, I’ll post a table with line movement on all posted matchup props this week.
British Open Golfers with Negative Line Movement
The 20-year-old Chilean golfer will play in his first Open Championship, and head-to-head bettors have been fading him so far.
He was essentially a pick’em to begin the week against Bubba Watson, but he’s moved to +107 as of Wednesday morning. He’s also become a bigger dog against Byeong-Hun An. Niemann has seen the sharpest dip in implied probability so far, and he’s fallen in the to-win markets from 150-1 to 200-1.
Xander has seen his odds fall in every head-to-head matchup he’s in, including vs. Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott, Henrik Stenson, Tommy Fleetwood and Francesco Molinari.
Schauffele’s implied probability has dropped 4.8% against Fowler, who hasn’t seen a ton of movement in his other matchups, suggesting its bettors fading Xander vs. buying these other guys. Xander has also seen his to-win odds fall from 20-1 to 25-1 as of Wednesday morning.
We might have a trend here, as Im, another young guy like Niemann and Schauffele, has seen negative line movement. He moved from a +109 dog to Branden Grace on Monday evening to +130 as of Wednesday morning. He has held relatively firm in other matchups, however, so it could be bettors buying Grace, who has seen slight positive movement in other matchups.
Im has held firm at 150-1 to win, so he’s a player to monitor as the day progresses.
Ancer started the week with negative odds against both Emiliano Grillo and Andy Sullivan, but he’s now a firm dog against both of them. He missed the cut at his first Open Championship last year, but he’s coming into the event in solid form, making each of his last seven cuts. He finished 19th at the Irish Open and eighth at the Travelers, so it seems bettors are fading that form.
He was 150-1 last week but has since moved to 200-1.
Wallace has seen negative movement in all of his head-to-head matchups, including vs. Hideki Matsuyama, Louis Oosthuizen and Bryson DeChambeau. Wallace has been excellent in the last two majors this year, finishing 12th at the U.S. Open and third at the PGA Championship, but it seems bettors are fading him against guys in his range for the British.
He has held firm at 50-1 to win the tournament over the last week, however, so he’s another player to monitor today.
Golfers with Positive Line Movement
Aphibarnrat has missed his last three cuts and four of his past five. And yet, he’s seen some of the biggest positive line movement in his matchups vs. Justin Harding and Andrew Putnam.
Aphibarnrat has yet to be inside the top 75 in any of his five Open events, and he’s missed four of the cuts. He’s getting almost no buzz as a DFS play, and interestingly he’s moved from about 300-1 or higher to win at most books, even 500-1. Perhaps that means bettors are selling Harding and Putnam rather than buying Aphibarnrat, but he’s a guy to monitor this evening.
Rose has either held firm or seen positive line movement in all of his head-to-head matchups this week, including vs. Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm. Rose has been about as steady as they come, finishing inside the top 20 in all four majors in 2018 and placing a T-3 in the U.S. Open last month. He’s held firm in the to-win market at 20-1.
Fleetwood has held firm against Rickie Fowler, but he’s seen positive line movement against Francesco Molinari, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson. Fleetwood had an awesome 2018 campaign in majors, placing inside the top 35 in each event, including a solo second at the U.S. Open.
He’s been down in 2019, but bettors seem to like his chances in the Open, especially against the guys listed above. He’s held firm at 25-1 in the to-win market.
Brooks has seen positive line movement against Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm and mostly held firm in his others against Rory McIlroy, DJ and others. Fade him in majors at your own risk; here’s his last nine finishes at majors: 1st, T-6, T-13, 1st, T-39, 1st, T-2, 1st, T-2. He hasn’t been outside the top-two in a major yet this year, and he’s been inside the top 10 in two of the last three Opens. He’s held firm at 10-1 to win.
Rory has held firm against Jon Rahm and Justin Rose, but he’s seen positive movement against Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson and a bit against Brooks. He’s been inside the top five in each of his last four Opens, including a win back in 2014.
Bettors seem to have no problem paying the high price for the Irishman playing on his home turf.
Notes on the Studs of the Field
As mentioned above, Rory has high prices this week. He’s the outright favorite at 8-1 to win the tournament, and he’s a huge favorite in head-to-head matchups: He’s over -200 in his head-to-head against Tiger Woods, for reference. He’s no smaller than -150 in any matchup against the fellow studs of the field — Brooks, Rahm, DJ and others — and bettors don’t seem to be buying the high plus odds on his competition.
Let’s talk about Tiger: He’s seen negative line movement against Brooks, Rory and Rose, but he’s held firm vs. Rahm and DJ. Overall, it seems like bettors are buying Brooks, Rory, Rose and Fleetwood especially, while fading guys like Tiger and Xander.
Rahm is another guy to watch, as he’s seen negative movement against Brooks and Rose. The latter is closer to a pick’em now, but Rahm still has higher to-win odds and is getting more DFS buzz.
Another guy to mention is Rafa Cabrera-Bello, who has held firm or seen positive line movement in his matchups, which are against some big-name guys in Tony Finau, Sergio Garcia and Shane Lowry. He’s at least a -135 favorite in all of those matchups and could provide DFS value at his DraftKings price of $7,500 — lower than all of those golfers.