2020 Northern Trust Betting Preview: What Stats Matter the Most to Bettors at TPC Boston?

Credit:

Christian Petersen/PGA of America/PGA of America via Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Berger

The 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs begins with The Northern Trust at TPC Boston in Norton, MA. The Arnold Palmer-designed course checks in at 7,342 yards for a Par 71 and features bentgrass greens. This is a long track with wider-than-average fairways.

While this is the first rendition of TPC Boston hosting The Northern Trust, it has been a staple on the PGA TOUR since 2003.


Past winners at TPC Boston:

  • 2018: Bryson Dechambeau -16
  • 2017: Justin Thomas -17
  • 2016: Rory McIlroy -15
  • 2015: Rickie Fowler – 15
  • 2014: Chris Kirk -15
  • 2013: Henrik Stenson -22
  • 2012: Rory McIlroy -20
  • 2011:Webb Simpson -15

Let’s take a look at some key metric for TPC Boston and which golfers boast the best numbers in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

SG:Approach is always going to be one of the most important statistics in a golf tournament but this week it holds even more value.

This statistic gives an indication of how dialed in these golfers have been with their approaches to the green. With wide fairways, TPC Boston is a second-shot golf course.

1) Russell Henley (+10000)

2) Justin Thomas (+1300)

3) Daniel Berger (+3000)

4) Lucas Glover (+17500)

5) Henrik Norlander (+17500)


Proximity 175+

Over half of the approach shots at TPC Boston come from at least 175 yards, so proximity to the hole from 175 yards and further will be a key metric this week.

Past winners here have been excellent long iron players (Stenson, Thomas, Simpson, Woods). Expect this week to be more of the same.

1) Emiliano Grillo (+17500)

2) Brendan Steele (+17500)

3) Sepp Straka (+30000)

4) Taylor Gooch (+17500)

5) Richy Werenski (+22500)


Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Even though the fairways at TPC Boston are wide, that doesn’t mean driving the ball long and straight isn’t an important factor this week. SG:OTT incorporates both distance and accuracy, and both will be a recipe for success this week.

Driving distance gives the players a big advantage this week as the course is quite long. It is also important to be on the correct side of the fairway at TPC Boston to create the best angle for approach shots.

1) Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)

2) Cameron Champ (+1000)

3) Rory McIlroy (+1500)

4) Jason Kokrak (+11000)

5) Xander Schauffele (+1700)


Birdie or Better Gained

Birdies and Eagles are always important. This week, the winning score will likely come in the -16 to -18 range with some potentially driveable par 4’s and three par 5’s so picking golfers who have been making a lot of birdies and eagles in their past 24 rounds will be paramount.

1) Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)

2) Tyrrell Hatton (+5000)

3) Daniel Berger (+3000)

4) Billy Horschel (+5500)

5) Matthew Wolff (+7000)


Strokes Gained: Putting (on bentgrass greens)

PGA TOUR players will be the first to tell you that the type of putting surface absolutely plays a factor in their success on the greens from week to week.

While putting is a hard statistic to predict, catching a hot putter is inarguably part of the recipe for winning on the PGA TOUR.

Analyzing who putts the ball well on bentgrass greens should be a useful tool in accurately predicting the winner for this week’s Northern Trust.

1) Kevin Na (+10000)

2) Denny McCarthy (+17500)

3) Harris English (+9000)

4) Jordan Spieth (+9000)

5) Billy Horschel (+5500)


Statistical Model

(rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed)

1)  Daniel Berger (+3000)

2) Justin Thomas (+1300)

3) Collin Morikawa (+2500)

4) Matthew Wolff (+7000)

5) Abraham Ancer (+5500)

6) Viktor Hovland (+5500)

7) Joaquin Niemann (+17500)

8) Brooks Koepka (+3500)

9) Jason Day (+2600)

10) Patrick Cantlay (+3500)

While all of these statistics are important this week, it is important to note that the cream usually rises to the top in FedEx Cup Playoff events. The past 15 FedEx Cup playoff event winners have been: Patrick Reed, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Bryson DeChambeau, Keegan Bradley, Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Marc Leishman, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Reed, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy.

If past event winners give any indication to this week’s winner, it may be wise to bet the big names at The Northern Trust.

Odds via DraftKings. Stats provided by PGA TOUR and Fantasy National.

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