U.S. Open Prop Bets: A Top 20, Top Amateur & More
Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images. Pictured: Takumi Kanaya
With another major championship upon us, let’s take a look at the expanded prop board and see if we can find a few places with some value.
I’ve found four bets I’ll target this week from those prop markets.
Tony Finau Top 20
I’ll start out with my Finau top 20 play. I like this anytime we’re getting plus money.
His length and approach game will give him an advantage on almost every set up. And he’s been in great form recently, finishing inside the top 20 in five of his previous seven starts.
He’s been a little more volatile in the U.S. Open compared to other majors, missing cuts in two of his four starts. But the other two results were a 5th and a 14th.
Thomas Detry Top Belgian
This is basically a head-to-head against Thomas Pieters. I’ll take a chance Detry as the dog in his first U.S. Open. Pieters has played well in his two European Tour starts this season, but the U.S. Open hasn’t been a good spot yet for him.
He’s missed the cut in both appearances, including by eight shots at Pebble Beach last year. Detry has been in a good run of form in Europe with a couple second place finishes since the restart.
Michael Lorenzo-Vera to Miss the Cut
- +110 at DraftKings
- Bet Now
With only the top 60 and ties making the cut this week, we’re likely to see at least half the field miss out on the weekend. So I’ll take the plus money on Lorenzo-Vera to MC.
He was notably near the top of the leaderboard at the PGA Championship for a little while, but completely faded over the final two rounds. With no other starts in the past four months, I’m guessing this number is based around that one result.
We’re getting him at a better number than some much stronger European Tour players like Bernd Wiesberger, Lee Westwood, Eric Van Rooyen, Matt Wallace and Rasmus Hojgaard.
I’d have MLV more likely to miss the cut than any of them, so I think there’s some value here that he won’t be able to duplicate his earlier PGA success.
Takumi Kanaya Top Amateur
- +400 at Bet365
- Bet Now (NJ Only)
I don’t usually bet favorites in any market, but I’ll make an exception here for Kanaya. The world’s No. 1 amateur already has a win on the Japanese Tour and was third in the Australian Open near the end of 2019. He was also fifth a few weeks back in Japan when that tour made its full return from the pandemic hiatus.
In his limited run of pro events, he’s already climbed inside the top 250 in the world. The courses they face in Japan tend to be tight off the tee with difficult tree trouble and rough, although they’re usually not stretched out to 7,500 yards.
With a good run in pro events overseas, the U.S. Open set up may not be as big of a shock to his system as some his collegiate counterparts.