Sentry Tournament of Champions Best Bets: Our Picks to Win at Kapalua
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryson DeChambeau
- The Sentry Tournament of Champions kicks of the 2021 portion of the PGA TOUR schedule. With a 42-man field and no cut, the TOC has been a happy hunting ground for favorites in the past.
- With that in mind, our GolfBet analysts have picked out their four favorite bets for the Tournament of Champions at Kapalua.
The PGA TOUR’s long, cold offseason has finally concluded.
Normally, the TOC is the TOUR’s winners-only event, where players qualify for the field through a victory during the previous calendar year. But because of the hiatus, the TOUR expanded the field to also include players inside the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings who advanced to the 2020 TOUR Championship.
Needless to say, the 42-man field at Kapalua is loaded with talent and that means it could be a week to back the fellas at the top of the board.
Here are our favorite bets to win the 2021 Tournament of Champions.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800, $10 bet wins $180)
If there’s one player in the field who we can bank on treating this as a no-nonsense, super-serious business trip, Cantlay should be the one.
He offers an opportunity to make a smart play that isn’t too chalky, having only competed at this event twice previously — a T-15 in his first trip here and solo fourth last year.
I’m not suggesting he won’t go on an early-week whale-watch, but nobody will less embody the just-happy-to-be-here attitude than Cantlay.
This should be an interesting year for the soon-to-be 29-year-old. He’s already proven he’s a top-10 player and world-class ball-striker. He’s proven he can contend for major titles. He’s proven he can stare down some of the game’s best on a Sunday back-nine and beat ’em, as he did at the recent Zozo Championship, coming from behind to beat Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas.
If you want to convince me that he’s ready to take the next step, moving from ninth in the OWGR to top-five for the first time and claiming his first major, I’d have a difficult time arguing any rationale that would lead you there.
If this is going to be a big year for him, then it very well could start this week, where the only sure thing is that Cantlay will be treating Kapalua with as much intensity as any of his fellow competitors
Patrick Reed (+1800)
I feel like I start off every year by betting on Patrick Reed to win the TOC. He was on the card in 2020 and came up just short, losing in a playoff to Justin Thomas. That was Reed’s second runner-up finish at Kapalua, where he also has a win, so he ticks the course history box.
This trophy usually gets hoisted by one of the stars, but I’m never really going to bet guys under 10/1, so I’ll go to Reed at a bit of a bigger number in a tournament where he’s had success.
Tony Finau (+2500)
Nothing would be more 2020 than to start 2021 with a guy who rarely wins, coming through with a victory in a tournament whose field is typically only made up of champions from the prior year’s events. Tony Finau didn’t win anything last year as he continues a four-year cold streak of breaking through, but we all know the talent is in there and this is a perfect course fit for him.
Finau closed the fall swing with a run of six Top-25 finishes in his last seven events, including three Top-10s. He will look to carry that momentum into the new year, and maybe just catch a couple of breaks for his first win since 2016.
I love the way his distance will benefit him this week with wide fairways, and a course that requires great Par 5 Scoring which has always been an elite part of his game.
I know it’s a new year, but not much has changed, so I’ll go in expecting the unexpected and Tony Finau fits that mold at a solid price.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1200)
After a long season, many of the golfers in the field will show up in Maui this week looking for an extended vacation. Bryson DeChambeau isn’t one of them. After a poor performance at Augusta, there is little doubt that Bryson has been working on his game while his competitors enjoyed some time off.
Fairways at Kapalua are very wide and easy to hit, with little trouble off the tee. With a handful of short Par 4’s on the course, I expect DeChambeau to let it rip. The elevation changes at the Plantation Course also create a lot of downhill tee shots that will allow the big hitting Bryson to get very close to greens and set up short approach shots.
Another factor that DeChambeau has in his favor is his putting ability. An underrated putter, he ranks 8th in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Velcro bermudagrass greens.
Surprisingly, Bryson is the 5th on the oddsboard this week which provides a lot of value. I’ll gladly bet on the mis-priced “super elite” with a chip on his shoulder.