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2022 3M Open Final Round Odds and Picks: Emiliano Grillo, Tony Finau Ready to Battle for the Win

2022 3M Open Final Round Odds and Picks: Emiliano Grillo, Tony Finau Ready to Battle for the Win article feature image
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(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) Pictured: Tony Finau.

Saturday at the 3M Open turned into a bit of a marathon as an extended weather delay put the players in limbo for much of the afternoon. They finally got back on the course after 5:30 p.m. local time and were able to get the full round in heading to Sunday.

Scott Piercy has been nothing short of remarkable with his game this week as he carried a six-shot lead into the final hole on Saturday night. He was able to overcome a water ball on the last hole of the day to take a four-shot lead into Sunday over Emiliano Grillo, who also had to grind his way to a four-under round.

Only four players are within six shots of the lead going into the final round at TPC Twin Cities as Piercy has dominated through the first three days. I’ll be hesitant to get beyond those guys going into Sunday as they’ll need a lot of help from the top to become relevant in the outcome.

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Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4

I started this week beating the drum for Emiliano Grillo as he was a clear, easy play for me ahead of Adam Svensson. I will now go down with the ship as he looks to close out his first win on TOUR since the 2015 fall swing. He has been impeccable with his play throughout the bag this week and the only thing holding him back has been remarkable play from Scott Piercy. I refuse to believe we will continue to see the same leader going into Sunday and for that reason I’m riding right along with Grillo through the final round.

The best player in the field this week tee-to-green has been Tony Finau and it’s not particularly close as he has gained nearly a shot per round on the next best player in that metric. His issue has been a troublesome putter that was somehow even worse on Saturday than in the first two rounds. He has now lost shots to the field on the greens in each of the first three rounds and gotten worse with each passing day. Maybe I’m putting a little too much faith in the big man, but it seems crazy to think he can continue to fall apart on the greens for four straight days. I’m in on him making a run at the top on Sunday and he’ll be part of my core buys going into the final round.

Greyson Sigg was a guy I bought at triple digits going into the second round and he really didn’t disappoint Friday. He missed a few opportunities to get further into the mix, but really put it all together in the third round. I’m going to keep riding Sigg, who ranks fifth this week both off the tee and on approach, to round himself into a great ball striker. It’s hard to see a route to a win for the former Georgia Bulldog, but a top-five type finish is certainly in play.

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3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4

I tweeted on Saturday about how remarkable this three-round run has been for Scott Piercy. He hasn’t found a top-20 finish since April and lost nearly eight strokes on approach across his past two tournaments. There are reports he changed swings, coaches, caddies and more leading into this week and while it would be an incredible story, I can’t ride it through the end. Piercy just isn’t a guy I see running away with a win and I expect his water ball on Saturday at 18 may be a sign of things to come in the final round of the 3M Open.

Chesson Hadley was a player I was a buyer on heading into the third round, but he now flips to the fade section. Bojangles — as I affectionately call him due to his sponsorship from one of my favorite fast food spots — has been mostly smoke and mirrors this week. He is gaining less than a stroke per round tee-to-green this week and is doing most of his damage with the short game. Hadley added to that with a chip in eagle on Saturday, but I expect it all comes to a halt as the pressure rises in the final round.

One player who has consistently regressed this week is James Hahn. He started at the peak and has fallen back in both aspects of his ball striking. The play off the tee has to be the biggest concern as he has lost strokes to the field in consecutive rounds. He’s the guy in the outskirts of the top 20 of the field who I am fading going into Sunday.

Strokes Gained Data for All Players in Round 2

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