2022 3M Open Odds, Expert Picks: Wyndham Clark, 5 More Longshots To Bet
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Wyndham Clark.
Click arrow to expand 2022 3M Open odds via bet365.
2022 3M Open Odds
|Bo Van Pelt||+40000|
|Dawie van der Walt||+100000|
|Ted Potter Jr||+150000|
Overall, it was a pretty good week. Cam Smith cashed at The Open, and we snuck out a top 20 from our 500/1 longshot Joshua Creel at the Barracuda to come out ahead there as well.
Now we head into a three-week lull in the schedule, starting with the 3M Open, where we won’t see too many big names leading into the playoffs.
TPC Twin Cities comes in at 7,431 yards for a par 71.
The main defense is water, which is in play on about half of the holes, but if players stay dry, they can go really low. I’d expect the winner to be in the 20-under par range, as that’s right where we’ve been the first two years with Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson. Last year, it played a little more difficult with Cameron Champ winning at 15-under.
In the end, it will likely come down to whoever brings a hot putter to the Twin Cities, with an edge to the bombers who can take advantage of the longer par 5s.
Tony Finau opens at the top here at +1200, which basically says all we need to know about this week. Finau is a good fit and could win here — he was third in 2020 — but he’s never shown the ability to win at a rate that makes this number tempting.
Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im are next at around +1600. Both were inside the top 15 in 2019 in their only appearances. The form isn’t where you’d like, but two weeks in Scotland really have nothing to do with what we’ll see this week in Minnesota. Of the two, I’d lean toward Matsuyama just because he’s shown the ability to pile up more wins in his career so far. Given the lack of quality, he’s probably the best player here, but neither are really on my radar at the prices.
In the +2000s, we have a handful of guys including Maverick McNealy, Adam Hadwin, Cameron Davis, Davis Riley and Sahith Theegala. This seems like a spot where Riley or Theegala might pop up. They’ve been backed at huge numbers throughout the year and had their fair share of near misses. Now the prices have crashed to the point where it’s tough to be interested, so those previous Sunday struggles may fade away, and they could break through.
We’ll go with Wyndham Clark here at +6600 on BetMGM. Clark is coming off a couple decent weeks in Scotland. He finished inside the top 20 at the Scottish Open and made the cut at The Open. He’s also played well here in 2019, finishing fifth that year. He’s missed the last two cuts at this event, which will turn some away.
But he also wasn’t playing well either of those years leading into the event. He’s a good course fit with his length and putting ability, but that can’t overcome bad form. This year, the form is in much better shape, making five of his last six cuts with a couple top 20s mixed in there.
I’m staying in this range with Emiliano Grillo at +6500 on DraftKings, as well. Grillo was second at the John Deere in his last start in the U.S. and finished third here in 2020. Grillo has shown signs of putting better the last few weeks as well, which has always been his issue. Bentgrass greens have been his preferred surface based on the numbers through his career, so that’s something going his way this week. The driver has also been in really good shape outside of last week at The Open.
So far, this event is 3-for-3 in this range with Wolff, Thompson and Champ all available at triple digits. It makes sense with many of the big names away that we can get someone out of nowhere.
I’ll go back to Callum Tarren here at 130-1 on DraftKings. Tarren is in a decent run of play, finishing 22nd at the Barracuda last week and was sixth at the John Deere a few weeks earlier. Tarren fits the Wolff and Champ bomber mold and has shown he’s at least an average putter most weeks.
I’m also going with Garrick Higgo at 125-1 on BetMGM. He’s another from the bomber who can putt profile. Form is extremely volatile with him. We see a lot of missed cuts with his style, but he made the cut at The Open and was inside the top 20 at Memorial in strong fields. He also held his own in the Zurich to take fourth with his partner Branden Grace.
I’ll also take a chance on Cole Hammer at 350-1 on BetRivers. I’m usually not the guy to go to for betting the new college crop. I feel like books tend to undercut their numbers knowing there is a group of bettors who will be drawn to the shiny new toy regardless.
But Wolff proved that experience isn’t needed here. Meanwhile, Hammer is coming off a seventh on the KFT last week, so he’s showing signs of life. In this price range, I’ll take a chance he can play well and maybe find a way to place in the top 20.
My last play here will be Seung-Yul Noh at 400-1 on bet365. Another shot in the dark this week where a top 20 finish will cover the week. He’s coming off four straight made cuts, so the game is in decent shape. The short game has been solid for a few months now, and he’s shown the capability with the irons, gaining over five strokes on approach at the Barbasol and Mexico.
It will come down to the driver this week. Noh is usually above average in length but just hasn’t been keeping it in play much. The accuracy was only a touch below the field average last week at Barracuda, so I’ll take a chance at this price that the tee ball stays in play.
With this many longshots, it’s left the card more open than usual for some live adds. With players traveling from overseas, especially the favorites, it’s tough to tell how jet lag will affect them, so this gives us the option to circle back after the opening round and see where things stand, and if anyone playing well slipped through the cracks.
The 3M Open Card
- Wyndham Clark +6600 (.5 units)
- Emiliano Grillo +6500 (.5 units)
- Callum Tarren +13000 (.25 units)
- Garrick Higgo +15000 (.22 units)
- Cole Hammer +35000 (.09 units)
- Seung-Yul Noh +40000 (.08 units)
Total Stake: 1.64 units
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