2022 3M Open Odds, Expert Picks: Wyndham Clark, 5 More Longshots To Bet

2022 3M Open Odds, Expert Picks: Wyndham Clark, 5 More Longshots To Bet article feature image

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Wyndham Clark.

Click arrow to expand 2022 3M Open odds via bet365.

2022 3M Open Odds

Tony Finau+1200
Hideki Matsuyama+1600
Sungjae Im+1800
Adam Hadwin+2000
Cameron Davis+2200
Davis Riley+2200
Sahith Theegala+2200
Maverick McNealy+2500
Cameron Tringale+2800
Joohyung Kim+2800
Adam Long+3300
J.T. Poston+3500
Martin Laird+3500
Chez Reavie+3500
Brendan Steele+3500
Nick Hardy+4000
Brendon Todd+4500
Adam Svensson+4500
Christopher Gotterup+5000
Ryan Palmer+5000
Rickie Fowler+5000
Jason Day+5500
Wyndham Clark+5500
Emiliano Grillo+5500
Cameron Champ+6000
Dylan Frittelli+6600
C.T. Pan+6600
Matthew Nesmith+7000
Michael Thompson+8000
Lucas Glover+8000
Doug Ghim+8000
Nick Taylor+8000
Austin Smotherman+8000
Matthias Schwab+8000
Troy Merritt+8000
Tyler Duncan+9000
John Huh+9000
Greyson Sigg+9000
Stewart Cink+9000
Patton Kizzire+10000
Danny Willett+10000
Hayden Buckley+10000
Beau Hossler+10000
Stephan Jaeger+10000
Tom Hoge+10000
Adam Schenk+11000
Nate Lashley+11000
Danny Lee+11000
Michael Gligic+11000
Garrick Higgo+11000
Kramer Hickok+12500
Justin Lower+12500
Lee Hodges+12500
Chesson Hadley+12500
Callum Tarren+12500
Andrew Putnam+12500
Hank Lebioda+14000
Joseph Bramlett+14000
Sam Ryder+14000
James Hahn+14000
Brice Garnett+14000
Andrew Novak+15000
Ryan Moore+15000
Ryan Armour+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Brandon Matthews+15000
Peter Malnati+15000
Kelly Kraft+15000
Matt Wallace+15000
Austin Cook+17500
Bo Hoag+20000
Harry Higgs+20000
Dylan Menante+20000
Bill Haas+22500
Robert Streb+22500
Sean O'Hair+22500
Chase Seiffert+22500
Kevin Tway+22500
Doc Redman+22500
Kevin Chappell+22500
Henrik Norlander+22500
Brandon Hagy+22500
Dylan Wu+22500
Vaughn Taylor+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Scott Gutschewski+25000
Jonathan Byrd+25000
Andres Romero+25000
Rick Lamb+25000
Ben Martin+27500
Brian Stuard+30000
Chris Stroud+30000
Scott Brown+30000
David Lingmerth+30000
Camilo Villegas+30000
Richy Werenski+30000
Cole Hammer+30000
Cameron Percy+30000
Ben Kohles+30000
Chris Naegel+30000
Jason Dufner+35000
Grayson Murray+35000
Paul Barjon+35000
Joshua Creel+35000
Roger Sloan+35000
Aaron Baddeley+35000
Andrew Landry+35000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+40000
Bo Van Pelt+40000
Seung-Yul Noh+40000
Seth Reeves+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Jeff Overton+50000
Jim Knous+60000
Brian Gay+60000
David Hearn+60000
Curtis Thompson+60000
Sung Kang+60000
Greg Chalmers+60000
Wesley Bryan+60000
David Skinns+60000
Martin Trainer+60000
Daniel Gale+60000
Jared Wolfe+75000
Ryan Brehm+75000
Robert Garrigus+75000
Tommy Gainey+75000
Mark Hensby+75000
Andre Metzger+75000
Ben Crane+100000
K.J. Choi+100000
Jonas Blixt+100000
Brett Drewitt+100000
Dawie van der Walt+100000
Arjun Atwal+100000
D.J. Trahan+100000
John Huston+100000
Derek Ernst+125000
Ricky Barnes+125000
George McNeill+125000
Matt Every+125000
Ted Potter Jr+150000
John Merrick+150000
Derek Lamely+150000
Paul Goydos+150000
Kevin Stadler+200000
D.A. Points+200000
J.J. Henry+200000
Mo Lim+200000
Jeff Sorenson+200000
Charlie Beljan+200000
Brian Davis+250000
Mardy Fish+250000
Jason Bohn+250000
Parker McLachlin+250000
Eric Axley+250000
Duffy Waldorf+250000
Bet the 3M Open, Win $200 (No Matter What!)

Overall, it was a pretty good week. Cam Smith cashed at The Open, and we snuck out a top 20 from our 500/1 longshot Joshua Creel at the Barracuda to come out ahead there as well.

Now we head into a three-week lull in the schedule, starting with the 3M Open, where we won't see too many big names leading into the playoffs.

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The Course

TPC Twin Cities comes in at 7,431 yards for a par 71.

The main defense is water, which is in play on about half of the holes, but if players stay dry, they can go really low. I’d expect the winner to be in the 20-under par range, as that’s right where we’ve been the first two years with Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson. Last year, it played a little more difficult with Cameron Champ winning at 15-under.

In the end, it will likely come down to whoever brings a hot putter to the Twin Cities, with an edge to the bombers who can take advantage of the longer par 5s.

The Favorites

Tony Finau opens at the top here at +1200, which basically says all we need to know about this week. Finau is a good fit and could win here — he was third in 2020 — but he's never shown the ability to win at a rate that makes this number tempting.

Hideki Matsuyama and Sungjae Im are next at around +1600. Both were inside the top 15 in 2019 in their only appearances. The form isn't where you'd like, but two weeks in Scotland really have nothing to do with what we'll see this week in Minnesota. Of the two, I'd lean toward Matsuyama just because he's shown the ability to pile up more wins in his career so far. Given the lack of quality, he's probably the best player here, but neither are really on my radar at the prices.

In the +2000s, we have a handful of guys including Maverick McNealy, Adam Hadwin, Cameron Davis, Davis Riley and Sahith Theegala. This seems like a spot where Riley or Theegala might pop up. They've been backed at huge numbers throughout the year and had their fair share of near misses. Now the prices have crashed to the point where it's tough to be interested, so those previous Sunday struggles may fade away, and they could break through.

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The Mid-Tier

We'll go with Wyndham Clark here at +6600 on BetMGM. Clark is coming off a couple decent weeks in Scotland. He finished inside the top 20 at the Scottish Open and made the cut at The Open. He's also played well here in 2019, finishing fifth that year. He's missed the last two cuts at this event, which will turn some away.

But he also wasn't playing well either of those years leading into the event. He's a good course fit with his length and putting ability, but that can't overcome bad form. This year, the form is in much better shape, making five of his last six cuts with a couple top 20s mixed in there.

I'm staying in this range with Emiliano Grillo at +6500 on DraftKings, as well. Grillo was second at the John Deere in his last start in the U.S. and finished third here in 2020. Grillo has shown signs of putting better the last few weeks as well, which has always been his issue. Bentgrass greens have been his preferred surface based on the numbers through his career, so that's something going his way this week. The driver has also been in really good shape outside of last week at The Open.

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The Longshots

So far, this event is 3-for-3 in this range with Wolff, Thompson and Champ all available at triple digits. It makes sense with many of the big names away that we can get someone out of nowhere.

I'll go back to Callum Tarren here at 130-1 on DraftKings. Tarren is in a decent run of play, finishing 22nd at the Barracuda last week and was sixth at the John Deere a few weeks earlier. Tarren fits the Wolff and Champ bomber mold and has shown he's at least an average putter most weeks.

I'm also going with Garrick Higgo at 125-1 on BetMGM. He's another from the bomber who can putt profile. Form is extremely volatile with him. We see a lot of missed cuts with his style, but he made the cut at The Open and was inside the top 20 at Memorial in strong fields. He also held his own in the Zurich to take fourth with his partner Branden Grace.

I'll also take a chance on Cole Hammer at 350-1 on BetRivers. I'm usually not the guy to go to for betting the new college crop. I feel like books tend to undercut their numbers knowing there is a group of bettors who will be drawn to the shiny new toy regardless.

But Wolff proved that experience isn't needed here. Meanwhile, Hammer is coming off a seventh on the KFT last week, so he's showing signs of life. In this price range, I'll take a chance he can play well and maybe find a way to place in the top 20.

My last play here will be Seung-Yul Noh at 400-1 on bet365. Another shot in the dark this week where a top 20 finish will cover the week. He's coming off four straight made cuts, so the game is in decent shape. The short game has been solid for a few months now, and he's shown the capability with the irons, gaining over five strokes on approach at the Barbasol and Mexico.

It will come down to the driver this week. Noh is usually above average in length but just hasn't been keeping it in play much. The accuracy was only a touch below the field average last week at Barracuda, so I'll take a chance at this price that the tee ball stays in play.

With this many longshots, it's left the card more open than usual for some live adds. With players traveling from overseas, especially the favorites, it's tough to tell how jet lag will affect them, so this gives us the option to circle back after the opening round and see where things stand, and if anyone playing well slipped through the cracks.

The 3M Open Card

  • Wyndham Clark +6600 (.5 units)
  • Emiliano Grillo  +6500 (.5 units)
  • Callum Tarren +13000 (.25 units)
  • Garrick Higgo +15000 (.22 units)
  • Cole Hammer +35000 (.09 units)
  • Seung-Yul Noh +40000 (.08 units)

Total Stake: 1.64 units

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