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2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Odds & Expert Picks: Matthew NeSmith, Dean Burmester & Will Gordon Among Top Plays

2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Odds & Expert Picks: Matthew NeSmith, Dean Burmester & Will Gordon Among Top Plays article feature image
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Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew NeSmith

  • The PGA TOUR returns to Texas for the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
  • With Memorial Park Golf Course playing long this week, Joshua Perry is emphasizing distance and short game.
  • Check out his picks and analysis below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open odds via BetMGM
Player Name Odds
Scottie Scheffler +600
Sam Burns +1400
Aaron Wise +1800
Tony Finau +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Maverick McNealy +2500
Russell Henley +2500
Taylor Montgomery +2500
Jason Day +2800
Davis Riley +4000
Denny McCarthy +4000
Joel Dahmen +4000
Sahith Theegala +4000
Alex Noren +5000
Dean Burmester +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Keith Mitchell +5000
Mackenzie Hughes +5000
Matthew NeSmith +5000
Patrick Rodgers +5000
Si Woo Kim +5000
Taylor Pendrith +5000
Andrew Putnam +6000
Adam Hadwin +6600
Adam Long +6600
Brandon Wu +6600
Taylor Moore +6600
Will Gordon +6600
Aaron Rai +6600
Harris English +6600
Lee Hodges +6600
Sebastian Munoz +6600
Sepp Straka +6600
Wyndham Clark +6600
Adam Schenk +8000
Alex Smalley +8000
Brendan Steele +8000
Justin Lower +8000
Luke List +8000
Danny Willett +9000
David Lipsky +9000
Davis Thompson +9000
Martin Laird +9000
Cameron Champ +10000
Charley Hoffman +10000
Francesco Molinari +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Justin Rose +10000
Justin Suh +10000
Mark Hubbard +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Russell Knox +10000
Ryan Palmer +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Beau Hossler +12500
David Lingmerth +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Henrik Norlander +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Ryan Armour +12500
S.H. Kim +12500
Adam Svensson +15000
Ben Griffin +15000
Byeong Hun An +15000
Chesson Hadley +15000
Erik van Rooyen +15000
John Huh +15000
Kevin Streelman +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Matthias Schwab +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Trey Mullinax +15000
Zecheng Dou +15000
Austin Smotherman +17500
Robert Streb +17500
Stewart Cink +17500
Austin Cook +20000
Austin Eckroat +20000
Ben Taylor +20000
Callum Tarren +20000
Carl Yuan +20000
Garrick Higgo +20000
James Hahn +20000
Johannes Veerman +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Kramer Hickok +20000
Michael Gligic +20000
MJ Daffue +20000
Doc Redman +25000
Harry Hall +25000
Peter Malnati +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Zach Johnson +25000
Ben Martin +30000
Danny Lee +30000
Eric Cole +30000
Kevin Tway +30000
Paul Haley II +30000
Philip Knowles +30000
Chad Ramey +35000
Chris Stroud +35000
Erik Barnes +35000
Kelly Kraft +35000
Nick Watney +35000
Zac Blair +35000
Carson Young +40000
Jimmy Walker +40000
Max McGreevy +40000
Nico Echavarria +40000
Travis Vick +40000
Augusto Nunez +50000
Brandon Matthews +50000
Brent Grant +50000
Cole Hammer +50000
Jim Herman +50000
Kyle Westmoreland +50000
Michael Kim +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Tyson Alexander +50000
Scott Harrington +50000
Kevin Roy +50000
Seung-Yul Noh +50000
Zack Fischer +50000
Jason Dufner +75000
Ryan Brehm +75000
Tano Goya +75000
Anders Albertson +75000
Ben Kern +100000
Walker Lee +100000
Trevor Werbylo +100000
Lukas Euler +100000
Sean Jacklin +100000

We weren’t really close at Mayakoba, but unless you had Russell Henley, it never felt like your bet was alive on the weekend. Henley finally had that week where his solid iron play lined up with a hot putting week as he won comfortably in Mexico.

Now we set out sights on the Cadence Bank Houston Open, where we get a decent field for a fall event as the 2022 portion of the schedule begins to wind down.

The Course

Memorial Park Golf Course was newly renovated a couple years ago with the help of Brooks Koepka, so it should come as no surprise that it figures to favor the longer hitters this week.

The par 70 measures 7,432 yards and features three par 5s to give the bombers plenty of scoring opportunities. It also boasts three par 3s measuring over 200 yards, giving solid long-iron players a bit of an edge there.

It looks like the long hitters will have the advantage, so I’ll be looking at bombers in some decent form with good Bermudagrass putting numbers to take advantage of the birdie opportunities that await.

The Favorites

Scottie Scheffler is the clear guy at the top this week at around +600. Scheffler was the runner-up here last year and closed well in Mexico last week to finish third. He’s going to be a tough favorite for a longshot to sneak past on a course that clearly sets up for him.

Sam Burns is next at +1200 and has finished seventh both times here. He’s another guy who fits quite well here and was seventh in his last start as well, so the form is dialed in.

Tony Finau and Aaron Wise come in next at +1600. They haven’t finished inside the top 10 here yet, but both have played well here at times, so they can’t be written off. Finau hasn’t played much in the fall, missing the cut last week in his first official start of 2022-23.

Wise has four top-15 finishes in his last five starts, so the form is getting where you’d like for a win, but unfortunately, his price is that of someone who is far more prolific at reaching the winner’s circle than he has shown so far.

Hideki Matsuyama, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy and Russell Henley make up the +2000s. Matsuyama is the name that sticks out of the bunch in a field of this level. His form has been mediocre for a player of his skill, but he was second in his only appearance two years ago, so the course fits his game.

The Midtier

We’ll go with Matthew NeSmith here at +5000 on BetRivers. NeSmith has been playing well this fall, finishing in the top 10 in three straight events. The course should fit his game from tee to green, even though he hasn’t shown that thus far in two appearances.

NeSmith had a great ball striking week two years ago here but missed the cut when he lost nearly 11 strokes with the short game in two rounds. That area is much improved recently, so if he calls on that tee to green play from a couple years ago, he could threaten to win the tournament.

I like Dean Burmester at +8000 on bet365 and expect he’ll be fairly popular this week at that price. He’s a great driver of the ball with an above average short game. The approach game has been inconsistent, but this is a spot where his length can overcome some of that shortcoming.

This +8000 price has my attention this week as I’ll tack on both Wyndham Clark and Will Gordon at that number on DraftKings as well. These are two more long hitters who can get rolling with the short game. Gordon has been playing well for quite a while now.

He won during the KFT finals to lock up a card, has made every cut so far this season and finished third in Mexico last week. Clark is fairly similar to Burmester with his play. He’s got elite distance that can be useful here and is an above average putter.

The Longshots

I’m going to try Callum Tarren one more time here at 210/1 on FanDuel. Tarren’s form has fallen off, but I like his distance and short game combo, so I’ll try him one more time. It really comes down to the skillset here, but if it doesn’t work this week, it’ll be the last time until I see some form again in 2023.

The Houston Card

  • Matthew NeSmith +5000 (.66 units)
  • Dean Burmester +8000 (.41 units)
  • Will Gordon +8000 (.41 units)
  • Wyndham Clark +8000 (.41 units)
  • Callum Tarren +21000 (.16 units)

Total Stake: 2.05 units

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