2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open Odds & Expert Picks: Matthew NeSmith, Dean Burmester & Will Gordon Among Top Plays
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew NeSmith
- The PGA TOUR returns to Texas for the Cadence Bank Houston Open.
- With Memorial Park Golf Course playing long this week, Joshua Perry is emphasizing distance and short game.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Cadence Bank Houston Open odds via BetMGM
|Si Woo Kim||+5000|
|Byeong Hun An||+15000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+15000|
|Paul Haley II||+30000|
We weren’t really close at Mayakoba, but unless you had Russell Henley, it never felt like your bet was alive on the weekend. Henley finally had that week where his solid iron play lined up with a hot putting week as he won comfortably in Mexico.
Now we set out sights on the Cadence Bank Houston Open, where we get a decent field for a fall event as the 2022 portion of the schedule begins to wind down.
Memorial Park Golf Course was newly renovated a couple years ago with the help of Brooks Koepka, so it should come as no surprise that it figures to favor the longer hitters this week.
The par 70 measures 7,432 yards and features three par 5s to give the bombers plenty of scoring opportunities. It also boasts three par 3s measuring over 200 yards, giving solid long-iron players a bit of an edge there.
It looks like the long hitters will have the advantage, so I’ll be looking at bombers in some decent form with good Bermudagrass putting numbers to take advantage of the birdie opportunities that await.
Scottie Scheffler is the clear guy at the top this week at around +600. Scheffler was the runner-up here last year and closed well in Mexico last week to finish third. He’s going to be a tough favorite for a longshot to sneak past on a course that clearly sets up for him.
Sam Burns is next at +1200 and has finished seventh both times here. He’s another guy who fits quite well here and was seventh in his last start as well, so the form is dialed in.
Tony Finau and Aaron Wise come in next at +1600. They haven’t finished inside the top 10 here yet, but both have played well here at times, so they can’t be written off. Finau hasn’t played much in the fall, missing the cut last week in his first official start of 2022-23.
Wise has four top-15 finishes in his last five starts, so the form is getting where you’d like for a win, but unfortunately, his price is that of someone who is far more prolific at reaching the winner’s circle than he has shown so far.
Hideki Matsuyama, Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy and Russell Henley make up the +2000s. Matsuyama is the name that sticks out of the bunch in a field of this level. His form has been mediocre for a player of his skill, but he was second in his only appearance two years ago, so the course fits his game.
We’ll go with Matthew NeSmith here at +5000 on BetRivers. NeSmith has been playing well this fall, finishing in the top 10 in three straight events. The course should fit his game from tee to green, even though he hasn’t shown that thus far in two appearances.
NeSmith had a great ball striking week two years ago here but missed the cut when he lost nearly 11 strokes with the short game in two rounds. That area is much improved recently, so if he calls on that tee to green play from a couple years ago, he could threaten to win the tournament.
I like Dean Burmester at +8000 on bet365 and expect he’ll be fairly popular this week at that price. He’s a great driver of the ball with an above average short game. The approach game has been inconsistent, but this is a spot where his length can overcome some of that shortcoming.
This +8000 price has my attention this week as I’ll tack on both Wyndham Clark and Will Gordon at that number on DraftKings as well. These are two more long hitters who can get rolling with the short game. Gordon has been playing well for quite a while now.
He won during the KFT finals to lock up a card, has made every cut so far this season and finished third in Mexico last week. Clark is fairly similar to Burmester with his play. He’s got elite distance that can be useful here and is an above average putter.
I’m going to try Callum Tarren one more time here at 210/1 on FanDuel. Tarren’s form has fallen off, but I like his distance and short game combo, so I’ll try him one more time. It really comes down to the skillset here, but if it doesn’t work this week, it’ll be the last time until I see some form again in 2023.
The Houston Card
- Matthew NeSmith +5000 (.66 units)
- Dean Burmester +8000 (.41 units)
- Will Gordon +8000 (.41 units)
- Wyndham Clark +8000 (.41 units)
- Callum Tarren +21000 (.16 units)
Total Stake: 2.05 units