2022 Honda Classic Odds & Matchup Picks: Find Value With Joaquin Niemann and Russell Knox
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann.
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|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+5000|
|Charles Howell III||+7000|
|J. J. Spaun||+15000|
|Dawie Van Der Walt||+50000|
Those who were brave enough to hop on the Luke List rollercoaster with me last week paid the price. His three-putt from 2 feet eventually led to a missed cut by one shot, and a few extra beers for me on Friday night. Our opponent in that matchup again struggled on the weekend, and finished 48th. It’s been a tough start to the year, but I am confident in my approach.
We’re back at it again for this week’s Honda Classic with two matchups I feel great about.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined a couple matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Honda Classic. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it!
Joaquin Niemann (-110) over Billy Horschel (DraftKings)
My line: -135
Niemann has started 2022 scorching hot, with a sixth-place finish at the Farmers and then winning the Genesis last week. Niemann has gained more than 10 strokes on approach and 21.7 from tee-to-green during that stretch.
The Chilean has always been an excellent ball-striker on TOUR, but he always struggles with his short game. Over those two Southern California events, Niemann showed it might be coming together with 9.5 Strokes Gained: Around the Green.
On the other side, I’ve been fading Horschel a lot of late and will continue to do so until I see more consistent ball-striking numbers. Though his finishes have been good in his first four starts of 2022, he’s lost 12.4 strokes on approach. He has been carried by unsustainable putting and around-the-green numbers.
As always, I’m betting on the ball striker over the putter here, especially at even money.
Russell Knox (+100) over K.H. Lee (DraftKings)
My line: -120
Knox has started the year on fire with his irons to start 2022, gaining 16.5 strokes on approach in his five starts so far this year. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Lee, meanwhile, is 77th in approach during that same timeframe, and he’s lost 9.2 strokes on approach in his last two starts. His T26 at the Genesis was buoyed by one of the best putting performances of his career that saw him gain more than five strokes.
On a course that will punish wayward approach shots with bunkers and water hazards all over, I’m betting on Knox’s ball-striking numbers to win out over Lee’s sporadic play.