2022 Honda Classic Odds & Matchup Picks: Find Value With Joaquin Niemann and Russell Knox

2022 Honda Classic Odds & Matchup Picks: Find Value With Joaquin Niemann and Russell Knox article feature image

Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Joaquin Niemann.

Click for updated Honda Classic odds via PointsBet
Sungjae Im+1200
Daniel Berger+1400
Tommy Fleetwood+1600
Joaquin Niemann+1900
Billy Horschel+2100
Brooks Koepka+2200
Louis Oosthuizen+2200
Shane Lowry+3300
Alexander Noren+3500
Keith Mitchell+3500
Jhonattan Vegas+4000
Mackenzie Hughes+4000
Matthew Wolff+4000
Aaron Wise+5000
Brian Harman+5000
Cameron Young+5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+5000
Matt Jones+5000
Mito Guillermo Pereira+5000
Taylor Moore+5000
Denny McCarthy+5000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+6000
Patrick Reed+6000
Ryan Palmer+6000
Gary Woodland+6600
Lucas Glover+6600
Russell Knox+6600
Charles Howell III+7000
Cheng-Tsung Pan+7000
Chris Kirk+7000
Lee Westwood+7000
Nicolai Hoejgaard+7000
Rickie Fowler+7000
Ian Poulter+8000
Michael Thompson+8000
Lucas Herbert+9000
Aaron Rai+10000
Brendan Steele+10000
Brendon Todd+10000
Garrick Higgo+10000
Hudson Swafford+10000
Martin Kaymer+10000
Stewart Cink+10000
Taylor Pendrith+10000
Zach Johnson+10000
Adam Svensson+12500
Beau Hossler+12500
Chad Ramey+12500
Dylan Frittelli+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
Kevin Streelman+12500
Mark Hubbard+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Padraig Harrington+12500
Patrick Rodgers+12500
Sam Ryder+12500
Sepp Straka+12500
Alex Smalley+14000
Austin Smotherman+15000
Camilo Villegas+15000
Danny Willett+15000
Davis Riley+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Doug Ghim+15000
Hayden Buckley+15000
Henrik Stenson+15000
J. J. Spaun+15000
John Huh+15000
JT Poston+15000
Kramer Hickok+15000
Matthew NeSmith+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Rory Sabbatini+15000
Vincent Whaley+15000
Vaughn Taylor+15000
Harry Higgs+17500
Adam Schenk+20000
Charl Schwartzel+20000
David Lipsky+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Nate Lashley+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Satoshi Kodaira+20000
Chase Seiffert+20000
Brandon Hagy+25000
Brian Stuard+25000
Brice Garnett+25000
Bronson Burgoon+25000
Dylan Wu+25000
Hank Lebioda+25000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+25000
Nick Hardy+25000
Roger Sloan+25000
Stephan Jaeger+25000
Andrew Kozan+25000
Sam Stevens+25000
Andrew Novak+30000
Anirban Lahiri+30000
Jason Dufner+30000
Jimmy Walker+30000
Kevin Tway+30000
Kyle Stanley+30000
Luke Donald+30000
Nick Watney+30000
Paul Barjon+30000
Peter Uihlein+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Brian Gay+35000
Austin Cook+40000
Bill Haas+40000
Brandon Wu+40000
Jim Herman+40000
Justin Lower+40000
Kurt Kitayama+40000
Seth Reeves+40000
Wesley Bryan+40000
Alan Morin+50000
Ben Kohles+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
Callum Tarren+50000
Chase Koepka+50000
Chris Stroud+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Erik Compton+50000
Grayson Murray+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Jim Knous+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Kyle Westmoreland+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Seung-yul Noh+50000
Tyler McCumber+50000
William McGirt+50000
Martin Contini+50000
Fabian Gomez+50000
Rick Lamb+50000

Those who were brave enough to hop on the Luke List rollercoaster with me last week paid the price. His three-putt from 2 feet eventually led to a missed cut by one shot, and a few extra beers for me on Friday night. Our opponent in that matchup again struggled on the weekend, and finished 48th. It’s been a tough start to the year, but I am confident in my approach.

We’re back at it again for this week’s Honda Classic with two matchups I feel great about.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined a couple matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Honda Classic. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it!

Bet the Honda Classic at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

Joaquin Niemann (-110) over Billy Horschel (DraftKings)

My line: -135

Niemann has started 2022 scorching hot, with a sixth-place finish at the Farmers and then winning the Genesis last week. Niemann has gained more than 10 strokes on approach and 21.7 from tee-to-green during that stretch.
The Chilean has always been an excellent ball-striker on TOUR, but he always struggles with his short game. Over those two Southern California events, Niemann showed it might be coming together with 9.5 Strokes Gained: Around the Green.

On the other side, I’ve been fading Horschel a lot of late and will continue to do so until I see more consistent ball-striking numbers. Though his finishes have been good in his first four starts of 2022, he’s lost 12.4 strokes on approach. He has been carried by unsustainable putting and around-the-green numbers.
As always, I’m betting on the ball striker over the putter here, especially at even money.

Russell Knox (+100) over K.H. Lee (DraftKings)

My line: -120

Knox has started the year on fire with his irons to start 2022, gaining 16.5 strokes on approach in his five starts so far this year. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks second in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach.

Lee, meanwhile, is 77th in approach during that same timeframe, and he’s lost 9.2 strokes on approach in his last two starts. His T26 at the Genesis was buoyed by one of the best putting performances of his career that saw him gain more than five strokes.

On a course that will punish wayward approach shots with bunkers and water hazards all over, I’m betting on Knox’s ball-striking numbers to win out over Lee’s sporadic play.

Bet Niemann and Knox at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.

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