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2022 RSM Classic Expert Picks, Odds & Preview: Matthew NeSmith, David Lipsky & Brendon Todd Among Top Outright Bets

2022 RSM Classic Expert Picks, Odds & Preview: Matthew NeSmith, David Lipsky & Brendon Todd Among Top Outright Bets article feature image
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Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew NeSmith.

Click arrow to expand 2022 RSM Classic odds via bet365
Player Name Odds
Brian Harman +2000
Seamus Power +2500
Tom Hoge +2500
Jason Day +2500
Taylor Montgomery +2800
Keith Mitchell +3100
Denny McCarthy +3300
Joel Dahmen +3300
Mackenzie Hughes +3600
Matthew Nesmith +3600
Andrew Putnam +4000
Sahith Theegala +4500
Davis Riley +4500
Patrick Rodgers +4500
Harris English +4500
Matt Kuchar +4500
Justin Rose +4500
Wyndham Clark +5500
Webb Simpson +5500
Alex Smalley +5500
Aaron Rai +5500
Taylor Pendrith +5500
Kevin Kisner +5500
J.J. Spaun +6000
Nick Hardy +6500
Scott Stallings +6500
Brendon Todd +6500
Will Gordon +6500
Lee Hodges +6500
Chris Kirk +7500
Hayden Buckley +8000
Troy Merritt +8000
David Lipsky +8000
Greyson Sigg +8000
Taylor Moore +8500
Dean Burmester +8500
Davis Thompson +9000
J.T. Poston +9000
Trey Mullinax +9000
Sepp Straka +10000
Luke List +10000
Francesco Molinari +10000
Stephan Jaeger +10000
Ben Griffin +10000
Russell Knox +11000
Justin Suh +11000
Adam Schenk +11000
Patton Kizzire +11000
Adam Long +12000
Cameron Champ +12000
Sam Ryder +12000
Justin Lower +12000
Robert Streb +12000
Brandon Wu +14000
S.H. Kim +14000
Robby Shelton +14000
Scott Piercy +14000
Beau Hossler +14000
Danny Willett +14000
Adam Svensson +14000
Christopher Gotterup +16000
Zach Johnson +17500
Austin Cook +17500
Kevin Yu +17500
Ben Taylor +17500
Ryan Armour +17500
Henrik Norlander +18500
Kevin Streelman +18500
Dylan Frittelli +18500
Tyson Alexander +18500
John Huh +20000
Byeong-Hun An +20000
Matthias Schwab +20000
Matt Wallace +20000
Chesson Hadley +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Carl Yuan +20000
Callum Tarren +20000
David Lingmerth +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Stewart Cink +20000
Cameron Percy +22500
Charley Hoffman +22500
Tyler Duncan +22500
Garrick Higgo +25000
Austin Smotherman +25000
Zecheng Dou +25000
Rory Sabbatini +30000
MJ Daffue +30000
Harry Higgs +30000
Matti Schmid +30000
Brian Stuard +30000
Brian Gay +30000
Nate Lashley +30000
Aaron Baddeley +30000
Akshay Bhatia +30000
Harrison Endycott +32500
Harry Hall +35000
Vincent Norrman +35000
Eric Cole +35000
Andrew Novak +35000
Sam Stevens +35000
Max McGreevy +35000
Sean O’Hair +35000
Paul Haley II +35000
Andrew Landry +35000
Michael Gligic +35000
Jonathan Byrd +35000
Brice Garnett +35000
Vaughn Taylor +40000
Doc Redman +40000
Ben Martin +40000
Peter Malnati +40000
Kelly Kraft +40000
Nick Watney +45000
Kevin Tway +45000
Chad Ramey +45000
Camilo Villegas +45000
Zac Blair +45000
Danny Lee +45000
Hank Lebioda +45000
Cole Hammer +45000
Michael Kim +45000
Sung Kang +45000
Kevin Chappell +45000
Dylan Wu +50000
Richy Werenski +60000
Philip Knowles +60000
Kyle Westmoreland +60000
Nicolas Echavarria +60000
Brent Grant +60000
Scott Harrington +60000
Tano Goya +60000
Kevin Roy +60000
Chris Stroud +60000
Spencer Ralston +60000
Augusto Nunez +60000
Erik Barnes +60000
Trevor Cone +75000
Brandon Matthews +75000
Palmer Jackson +75000
Bill Haas +75000
Jason Dufner +100000
Carson Young +100000
Jim Herman +100000
Brett Drewitt +105000
Trevor Werbylo +125000
Jacob Bridgeman +125000
Martin Trainer +125000
Davis Love III +125000
Bryson Nimmer +125000
Conner Godsey +125000
Anders Albertson +175000
Ryan Brehm +175000
Tim Weinhart +250000

Well, I didn’t have Tony Finau on the card, so Houston was over for me after Friday. Now, we close out the 2022 PGA TOUR slate with an old favorite in the RSM Classic.

It’s a course where similar styles tend to pop up every year, making it a good event for betting.

The Courses

The RSM Classic will use a pair of courses at Sea Island Golf Club for the first two days — the Par 70 Seaside course and the Par 72 Plantation course. Both measure slightly over 7,000 yards.

Neither course is particularly difficult, and we’ll probably get a winner in the 20-under range unless the wind picks up. We usually see a similar type winner here as we do with other shorter, coastal tracks.

We’ll be targeting guys who can keep it in play off the tee, are good with the wedges and have a good track record putting on Bermuda.

With the two-course setup, it’s not a bad idea to target the Plantation course for first round leader bets if you can find them. The two extra par 5s will give you an edge here, although rounds of 61 or 62 are definitely in play on Seaside if the wind is down.

Many books won’t list FRL odds when the opening round is played on multiple courses, but if you dig around, you’ll probably find someone who offers it.

The Favorites

Tony Finau is the clear favorite this week at +750 after the win. He’s made the most of these lesser fields, grabbing three wins over the past few months, and even though this place hasn’t been a regular stop for him, he’s someone who could wreck the card again this week.

Outside of Finau, no one else is below +2000. That range is made up of Brian Harman, Taylor Montgomery, Seamus Power, Jason Day and Tom Hoge. The results have been spotty for everyone here, so I really don’t want to dive down here for players of this caliber at this price.

The Midtier

We’ll go back to Matthew NeSmith again at +5000 on BetMGM. I played him last week in Houston, and he had a couple strong rounds. I’ll try him again here as another course-fit guy. The irons are strong, and he’s a fairly accurate driver who should be comfortable on these greens.

I also will play Brendon Todd here at +6000 on DraftKings in a good spot for him. He’s super accurate off the tee and a great putter. He’s also had a few good weeks with the irons during the fall. He came in fourth in 2019 here on the back of two wins earlier that season, so when the game is in good shape, it’s carried over to this event.

I like David Lipsky here at +9000 on FanDuel. Lipsky has only played once here and missed the cut, but I think his style fits that of past winners. He’s accurate off the tee and a good iron player. The putter could be better, especially on Bermuda, but he gained ground last week in Houston on that surface, so I’ll try him here.

The Longshots

The triple-digit crowd has pulled off some nice wins in the past here, notably Mackenzie Hughes and Robert Streb in recent years. But the books have been far more dialed in of late, and the stronger players have just been playing better recently. So I’ll limit my action here.

I do like Patton Kizzire at 170/1 on FanDuel. Kizzire is fresh off a 10th-place finish in Mexico two weeks ago and has been inside the top 15 in two of his last four starts here. I wish he were more accurate with the driver, but at this price, he’s got a good enough short game to fit the course well.

The RSM Card

  • Matthew NeSmith +5000 (.66 units)
  • Brendon Todd +6000 (.55 units)
  • David Lipsky +9000 (.37 units)
  • Patton Kizzire +17000 (.19 units)

Total Stake: 1.77 units

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