2022 RSM Classic Expert Picks, Odds & Preview: Matthew NeSmith, David Lipsky & Brendon Todd Among Top Outright Bets
Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew NeSmith.
Click arrow to expand 2022 RSM Classic odds via bet365
|Paul Haley II||+35000|
|Davis Love III||+125000|
Well, I didn't have Tony Finau on the card, so Houston was over for me after Friday. Now, we close out the 2022 PGA TOUR slate with an old favorite in the RSM Classic.
It's a course where similar styles tend to pop up every year, making it a good event for betting.
The RSM Classic will use a pair of courses at Sea Island Golf Club for the first two days — the Par 70 Seaside course and the Par 72 Plantation course. Both measure slightly over 7,000 yards.
Neither course is particularly difficult, and we’ll probably get a winner in the 20-under range unless the wind picks up. We usually see a similar type winner here as we do with other shorter, coastal tracks.
We’ll be targeting guys who can keep it in play off the tee, are good with the wedges and have a good track record putting on Bermuda.
With the two-course setup, it’s not a bad idea to target the Plantation course for first round leader bets if you can find them. The two extra par 5s will give you an edge here, although rounds of 61 or 62 are definitely in play on Seaside if the wind is down.
Many books won’t list FRL odds when the opening round is played on multiple courses, but if you dig around, you’ll probably find someone who offers it.
Tony Finau is the clear favorite this week at +750 after the win. He's made the most of these lesser fields, grabbing three wins over the past few months, and even though this place hasn't been a regular stop for him, he's someone who could wreck the card again this week.
Outside of Finau, no one else is below +2000. That range is made up of Brian Harman, Taylor Montgomery, Seamus Power, Jason Day and Tom Hoge. The results have been spotty for everyone here, so I really don't want to dive down here for players of this caliber at this price.
We'll go back to Matthew NeSmith again at +5000 on BetMGM. I played him last week in Houston, and he had a couple strong rounds. I'll try him again here as another course-fit guy. The irons are strong, and he's a fairly accurate driver who should be comfortable on these greens.
I also will play Brendon Todd here at +6000 on DraftKings in a good spot for him. He's super accurate off the tee and a great putter. He's also had a few good weeks with the irons during the fall. He came in fourth in 2019 here on the back of two wins earlier that season, so when the game is in good shape, it's carried over to this event.
I like David Lipsky here at +9000 on FanDuel. Lipsky has only played once here and missed the cut, but I think his style fits that of past winners. He's accurate off the tee and a good iron player. The putter could be better, especially on Bermuda, but he gained ground last week in Houston on that surface, so I'll try him here.
The triple-digit crowd has pulled off some nice wins in the past here, notably Mackenzie Hughes and Robert Streb in recent years. But the books have been far more dialed in of late, and the stronger players have just been playing better recently. So I'll limit my action here.
I do like Patton Kizzire at 170/1 on FanDuel. Kizzire is fresh off a 10th-place finish in Mexico two weeks ago and has been inside the top 15 in two of his last four starts here. I wish he were more accurate with the driver, but at this price, he's got a good enough short game to fit the course well.
The RSM Card
- Matthew NeSmith +5000 (.66 units)
- Brendon Todd +6000 (.55 units)
- David Lipsky +9000 (.37 units)
- Patton Kizzire +17000 (.19 units)
Total Stake: 1.77 units