2022 U.S. Open Sleeper Picks: 5 Longshot Targets, Including Tommy Fleetwood
Stuart Franklin/Getty Images. Pictured: Tommy Fleetwood.
- Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are the top four on odds boards for the 2022 U.S. Open.
- With a deep field in Brookline, Mass., this week, Shane McNichol has targeted five longshot picks.
- Check out his player breakdowns and best sleeper picks for the week below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 U.S. Open odds via BetMGM
2022 U.S. Open Odds
|Harold Varner III||+8000|
|Si Woo Kim||+15000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+25000|
|Min Woo Lee||+50000|
|Adrien Dumont de Chassart||+100000|
The U.S. Open at the Country Club in Brookline, Mass., marks a fascinating moment in golf history.
Just one week after the debut of the Saudi-backed LIV Golf series in London, which attracted a host of top-100 players, with more reportedly planning to join, the golf world reunites for a major. Players loyal to the PGA TOUR, those who have jumped ship and a host that seem to be tottering on the fence will all be teeing it up for one of the true gems of the golf landscape.
Despite the chatter about money and prestige of late, no one disagrees that the U.S. Open is, and will continue to be, a tentpole of the sport.
In recent years, that has shown itself on the tops of leaderboards. The always difficult test offered by the USGA has a way of weeding out the pretenders and rewarding the world’s best players. Of the last ten winners, only one closed at higher than +5000 (Gary Woodland in 2019) and none exceeded +8000.
For an unpredictable, wide-open sport like golf, that is a shock.
And yet, the door remains open for a dark horse to crash the party. If anything, the golf world is due for a shocking major champion. Perhaps this is the week we see a long shot nab a major, with these names standing out as golfers with a chance to reign supreme on Sunday.
2022 U.S. Open Picks
Tommy Fleetwood +6600
There’s a bit of a “Charlie Brown kicking the football” effect tied to betting on Tommy Fleetwood to win a major.
The Englishman has shown the ability to compete when the golf course asks a difficult question, earning eight finishes of T19 or better in his 27 major starts in his career. But Fleetwood has not collected a win in the United States, either in a major or on the PGA TOUR.
Fleetwood’s U.S. Open track record, however, is simply too good to ignore. He has two top-five finishes at this event and is playing well of late, with a finish of T16 or better in five of his last nine starts.
Fleetwood’s ball-striking and scrambling ability will both come into play at The Country Club, clearing a path for him to contend this weekend.
Adam Scott +13000
It just doesn’t feel right to see Adam Scott offered at odds this high. We’re talking about a major champion with nine top-five finishes at majors. His success is far from ancient history. He had two major-championship top-10s as recently as 2019.
Even this season, Scott has shown the ability to find his form and compete. He was top five at the Genesis Invitational in February and made the knockout stage with a good week at the Match Play in Austin.
Scott’s putting, once his fatal flaw after the USGA banned anchoring, is now a strength. Scott has been a top-20 putter in the world by strokes gained over the last two years, per DataGolf. That steadiness on the greens will be huge in Brookline, where he enters the week at 130-1 at DraftKings.
Russell Henley +15000
For the casual better, Russell Henley is your weekly reminder to shop odds between sportsbooks. If you simply bet him to win at DraftKings, you’d only get paid out at +6500. BetMGM is offering the same golfer at more than double the price.
I tend to think Henley’s chances fall somewhere between those numbers, but shade closer to the lower mark, making for tons of value on him at BetMGM.
Henley has finished T27 or better in each of his last three U.S. Open appearances. Across all four majors, he’s been incredibly solid, making 13 of his last 15 cuts. Somehow, he has totaled nine top-25 finishes at the majors without cracking the top 10.
Over the last 12 months, only Cameron Smith has gained more strokes per round on approach shots than Henley. His irons are dialed and should be a weapon this weekend, making him a value at 150-1 at BetMGM.
Brian Harman +18000
This number feels astronomical for a player with the combination of U.S. Open success and recent play that we’ve seen from Harman.
The lefty has been in the top 40 of each of his last four U.S. Opens, including a T2 back in 2017. Harman hasn’t missed a cut at a U.S. Open since 2015, and he’s been in the top 20 in three of his last six major starts.
Recently, his game has been in form, with a T18 at the Memorial and a T9 at the Wells Fargo. His chipping has been a weapon, with Harman ranking seventh in the world in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 24 months.
Success around the green will be crucial this week. According to metrics from DataGolf, the average U.S. Open winner gains 23% of his strokes on the field around the green. That compares to just 14.5% at the average PGA TOUR venue. If you’ve seen pictures or videos of the rough around the greens in Brookline this week, you already know that will be a key skill during this tournament.
Beau Hossler +40000
This one is more of a feeling than anything I can back up with stats and course knowledge. Hossler hasn’t played in a U.S. Open since 2015, hasn’t finished better than T29 in a major, and he has never won on the PGA TOUR. Not a lot to go off there!
Hossler has, however, played very strong golf this season and seems poised to break through eventually. He has two top fives on TOUR this year and has made four straight cuts, with finishes of T32 or better in three of those events.
At 400-1 at BetMGM, a hunch might be enough to back Hossler this week. I certainly like him to hang around through the weekend and even think he makes for a sneaky First Round Leader bet (+15000 at BetMGM). He was T7 after one round as an amateur at the 2012 U.S. Open and was within six of the lead again at the 2015 U.S. Open.
In his first U.S. Open since turning pro, he should outperform expectations.
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