2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & Matchup Picks: Chris Kirk & Patton Kizzire Provide Value This Week

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Welcome back to the matchup article after a brief hiatus. In our last time out at THE PLAYERS Championship, we split our picks going 1-1. This week, we’ll look to build some momentum ahead of golf’s biggest event of the year.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Valero Texas Open. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Both of this week's picks are at FanDuel. Let’s get to them.

Bet Kirk & Kizzire at FanDuel, get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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Chirs Kirk (+102) over Abraham Ancer

My line: -129

I have Kirk favored in this matchup. His streak of top-15 finishes ended at THE PLAYERS, but he gained 2.8 strokes on approach over the field, which is a sign that his game is still in great shape. He also has three top-10 finishes at the Valero Texas Open in seven starts.

Ancer, meanwhile, has struggled so far in 2022. He has two missed cuts in seven starts this year, and his best finish is 33rd.

Ancer has remained consistent off the tee, but his approach game has been hindering him. He ranks 72nd in this field in greens in regulation over his last 24 rounds.

The plus-money line offers great value here, since Kirk has the edge in this matchup.

*Editor's note: Ancer withdrew on Wednesday evening.

Patton Kizzire (-108) over Brendan Steele

My line: -131

The data suggests Kizzire is on the verge of a breakout performance in the coming weeks, and I really like him in this sport against Steele. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total.

Kizzire’s putter has been inconsistent and holding him back of late, which is ironic because it’s typically the strongest part of his game. He averages 0.8 strokes gained per tournament on Bermuda grass greens, which ranks 16th in this field. The data suggests his putter will return to form, which would be great for him given his current iron play.

This is also a great chance to take advantage of some recency bias associated with Steele’s last two finishes. Prior to his start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he had missed five straight cuts and was losing strokes to the field in nearly every statistical category.

While it’s possible Steele has figured something out of late, I’ll be betting on the larger sample of data that highlights his struggles over the last calendar year. Fire up Kizzire in this matchup.

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