2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & Matchup Picks: Chris Kirk & Patton Kizzire Provide Value This Week

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds & Matchup Picks: Chris Kirk & Patton Kizzire Provide Value This Week article feature image

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Kirk.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Valero Texas Open odds via PointsBet

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds

Rory McIlroy+900
Jordan Spieth+1600
Corey Conners+1800
Hideki Matsuyama+2000
Chris Kirk+2500
Gary Woodland+2500
Bryson DeChambeau+2800
Si Woo Kim+2800
Adam Hadwin+3300
Tony Finau+3300
Maverick McNealy+3500
Keegan Bradley+4000
Davis Riley+4000
Jason Day+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Kevin Streelman+5000
Luke List+5500
Mito Guillermo Pereira+6000
Patton Kizzire+6000
Rickie Fowler+6000
Russell Knox+6600
Brendan Steele+7000
Charley Hoffman+7000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+7000
Robert MacIntyre+7000
Ryan Palmer+7000
Sahith Theegala+7000
Doug Ghim+7500
Denny McCarthy+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Rasmus Højgaard+8000
Charles Howell III+9000
Ian Poulter+9000
Lanto Griffin+9000
Matthew NeSmith+9000
Alex Smalley+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Martin Laird+10000
Matt Jones+10000
Nick Taylor+10000
Pat Perez+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Takumi Kanaya+10000
Taylor Moore+10000
Troy Merritt+10000
Peter Uihlein+10000
Anirban Lahiri+12500
Beau Hossler+12500
Branden Grace+12500
Brian Stuard+12500
Chad Ramey+12500
Cheng-Tsung Pan+12500
David Lipsky+12500
J. J. Spaun+12500
Kramer Hickok+12500
Lee Westwood+12500
Lucas Glover+12500
Matthias Schwab+12500
Richard Bland+12500
Adam Long+15000
Andrew D. Putnam+15000
Brendon Todd+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
Joseph Bramlett+15000
Min Woo Lee+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Sam Ryder+15000
Vincent Whaley+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Cameron Champ+17500
Danny Lee+17500
Harry Higgs+17500
Aaron Rai+20000
Adam Schenk+20000
Adam Svensson+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brandon Hagy+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Hudson Swafford+20000
Jimmy Walker+20000
JT Poston+20000
Kevin Chappell+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Kyle Stanley+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Nick Hardy+20000
Patrick Rodgers+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Tyler Duncan+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Brandt Snedeker+25000
Garrick Higgo+25000
Graeme McDowell+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
John Huh+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Max McGreevy+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Ryan Brehm+25000
Stephan Jaeger+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Ben Kohles+30000
Ben Martin+30000
Bill Haas+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Camilo Villegas+30000
Logan McAllister+30000
Nick Watney+30000
Richy Werenski+30000
Roger Sloan+30000
Seung-yul Noh+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Jared Wolfe+30000
Chesson Hadley+35000
Dylan Wu+35000
Guido Migliozzi+35000
James Hahn+35000
Paul Barjon+35000
Aaron Baddeley+35000
Austin Cook+50000
Ben Kern+50000
Bronson Burgoon+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie van der Walt+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
Jim Herman+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Ludvig Aberg+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
William McGirt+50000
Shawn Stefani+50000
Jake Kevorkian+50000
Samuel Saunders+50000
Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the Valero Texas Open.

Welcome back to the matchup article after a brief hiatus. In our last time out at THE PLAYERS Championship, we split our picks going 1-1. This week, we’ll look to build some momentum ahead of golf’s biggest event of the year.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Valero Texas Open. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Both of this week's picks are at FanDuel. Let’s get to them.

Bet Kirk & Kizzire at FanDuel, get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

Chirs Kirk (+102) over Abraham Ancer

My line: -129

I have Kirk favored in this matchup. His streak of top-15 finishes ended at THE PLAYERS, but he gained 2.8 strokes on approach over the field, which is a sign that his game is still in great shape. He also has three top-10 finishes at the Valero Texas Open in seven starts.

Ancer, meanwhile, has struggled so far in 2022. He has two missed cuts in seven starts this year, and his best finish is 33rd.

Ancer has remained consistent off the tee, but his approach game has been hindering him. He ranks 72nd in this field in greens in regulation over his last 24 rounds.

The plus-money line offers great value here, since Kirk has the edge in this matchup.

*Editor's note: Ancer withdrew on Wednesday evening.

Patton Kizzire (-108) over Brendan Steele

My line: -131

The data suggests Kizzire is on the verge of a breakout performance in the coming weeks, and I really like him in this sport against Steele. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in Strokes Gained: Total.

Kizzire’s putter has been inconsistent and holding him back of late, which is ironic because it’s typically the strongest part of his game. He averages 0.8 strokes gained per tournament on Bermuda grass greens, which ranks 16th in this field. The data suggests his putter will return to form, which would be great for him given his current iron play.

This is also a great chance to take advantage of some recency bias associated with Steele’s last two finishes. Prior to his start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he had missed five straight cuts and was losing strokes to the field in nearly every statistical category.

While it’s possible Steele has figured something out of late, I’ll be betting on the larger sample of data that highlights his struggles over the last calendar year. Fire up Kizzire in this matchup.

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