2022 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks: Tony Finau, Rasmus Hojgaard Among 6 Best Outright Bets

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Not much to report out of match play last week. Will Zalatoris was our best chance, but he ran out of gas against Kevin Kisner in the quarterfinals.

Now, with the Masters looming, we'll take a look at the Valero Texas Open, which represents the final opportunity for players to punch their ticket to Augusta.

The Course

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio tends to be one of the tougher tests on TOUR, although the past few times, between 17- and 20-under won the event. It’s a 7,435-yard par-72 track where if we get some wind, the scoring tends to get much more difficult.

The course plays pretty long and is likely to favor strong drivers.

Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell, Brendan Steele and Jimmy Walker have all won here. It’s not the strongest group of champions because of where the tournament has been placed on the schedule in recent years, but all would consider the tee-ball one of the strongest parts of their game at the time they won.

The Favorites

Rory McIlroy opens the top of the board at around +750. This should be a good course for him. He hasn't played here since 2013, when he was second to Martin Laird. With his strength off the tee and decent form of late, he could take down this event without many of the top names to contend with.

The defending champ, Jordan Spieth is next at +1400. Spieth isn't the ideal fit here, but he does scramble well enough to make up for the lack of prowess off the tee. He won as the favorite last year but was entering that week in much better form.

Corey Conners comes in at +1800. The past winner is fresh off a third-place finish in match play and with a field devoid of star power, he slots in here this week. As a top line ball-striker, he fits well here. He's never finished worse than 26th in three appearances.

Hideki Matsuyama and Abraham Ancer open up that next tier at +2000. Hideki has some injury concerns, otherwise this would be a great price in this field. He still might be worth a look anyway given he still made his only cut in the past month, finishing 20th at the API.

Ancer had a decent run at the Match Play. He got out of his group and blasted Collin Morikawa before losing a tight match to Conners. He's played fine in San Antonio in the past, making the cut in all four of his starts, but he doesn't have a top-20 finish so it's hard to back him at that price for me.

Bryson DeChambeau closes out this range at +2500. There wasn't anything to suggest from match play that he's ready to win this week, getting bounced in probably the softest group by Richard Bland. He's never made the cut here in two starts, but the most recent one was back in 2017 and his style has certainly changed since then.

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The Mid-Tier

It'll be a pretty light card for me here.

Basically, for the past decade, we've either seen favorites or longshots win here. This tournament has fallen around the Masters quite a bit on the schedule, so many players tend to skip, which might be way we either get someone at the top of the board who just shows up and plays well like Spieth did or the winner comes out of nowhere completely without having to get by as many of the highest level players.

Guys like Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley and Si Woo Kim all looked fine for me coming into the week, but I wanted more than the +3300 type prices that were out there.

I'll make one bet on Tony Finau, who is +4000 at a few places, including BetMGM. He played pretty well his last two matches and cruised past Xander Schauffele to finish the week. He has also contended here in 2017, finishing third. Overall, Finau's game has been out of sorts, but Florida has never really been a good spot for him. If his form is starting to come around, that price is fair in this field.

Outside of that, I'll look for live plays during the week. Otherwise, I'm just sticking with some longshots and if nothing pops up, we'll move on to Augusta.

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The Longshots

This tournament has produced its fair share of surprise winners. Conners was a Monday qualifier the year he won. Steven Bowditch was well over 300-1 in many spots, and Ben Curtis and Andrew Landry were also triple digits.

There are a few guys I'm playing here, starting with Rasmus Hojgaard at 100/1 on DraftKings. Hojgaard came back from a month layoff to place sixth at Corales. He's been able to rack up a few wins in Europe the past couple of seasons so I don't mind trying him here at a big number without many of the top stars fresh off a good week.

I also like here starting with Austin Smotherman at 250-1 on PointsBet. Smotherman played well here at the Korn Ferry event two years ago, leading after 36 holes before winding up in fourth. He also gained five strokes on approach two weeks ago at the Valspar before struggling at Corales last week. Overall, this should be a comfortable spot for the Texas resident.

We'll also go to Paul Barjon who is 500-1 on PointsBet. The recent form is nowhere to be found with him. This just goes back to those two weeks in San Antonio on the KFT where he finished 2nd and 3rd. It's a spot where the TCU alum has been successful in the past.

I'll close here with a couple of international players in Min Woo Lee at 150-1 and Garrick Higgo at 250-1, both on PointsBet. Neither has been playing too well recently, but I think the shift away from Florida where precision tends to play a bigger role because of all the water may suit these two better. They're both very long off the tee and can get hot with the putter.

Min Woo didn't really do much wrong the last two days at Match Play after struggling in the opener against Billy Horschel. Higgo put up decent results in Dubai and Phoenix before the shift to Florida, as well. Both guys could finish well outside the cut, but also have the upside to contend in this kind of field if they play well.

For all of those longshots, we' tack on top 20s when they're available.

The Valero Card

• Tony Finau +4000 (.83 units)
• Rasmus Hojgaard +10000 (.33 units)
• Min Woo Lee +15000 (.22 units)
• Garrick Higgo +25000 (.13 units)
• Austin Smotherman +28000 (.12 units)
• Paul Barjon +50000 (.07 units)

Total Stake: 1.7 units

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