2022 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks: Tony Finau, Rasmus Hojgaard Among 6 Best Outright Bets

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks: Tony Finau, Rasmus Hojgaard Among 6 Best Outright Bets article feature image

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Finau.

  • The PGA TOUR's last stop before Augusta National is the Valero Texas Open.
  • There's value away from the top of this week's odds board.
  • Joshua Perry lays out his six outright picks for this week at TPC San Antonio.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Valero Texas Open odds via PointsBet

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds

Rory McIlroy+900
Jordan Spieth+1600
Corey Conners+1800
Hideki Matsuyama+2000
Chris Kirk+2500
Gary Woodland+2500
Bryson DeChambeau+2800
Si Woo Kim+2800
Adam Hadwin+3300
Tony Finau+3300
Maverick McNealy+3500
Keegan Bradley+4000
Davis Riley+4000
Jason Day+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Kevin Streelman+5000
Luke List+5500
Mito Guillermo Pereira+6000
Patton Kizzire+6000
Rickie Fowler+6000
Russell Knox+6600
Brendan Steele+7000
Charley Hoffman+7000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+7000
Robert MacIntyre+7000
Ryan Palmer+7000
Sahith Theegala+7000
Doug Ghim+7500
Denny McCarthy+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Rasmus Højgaard+8000
Charles Howell III+9000
Ian Poulter+9000
Lanto Griffin+9000
Matthew NeSmith+9000
Alex Smalley+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Martin Laird+10000
Matt Jones+10000
Nick Taylor+10000
Pat Perez+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Takumi Kanaya+10000
Taylor Moore+10000
Troy Merritt+10000
Peter Uihlein+10000
Anirban Lahiri+12500
Beau Hossler+12500
Branden Grace+12500
Brian Stuard+12500
Chad Ramey+12500
Cheng-Tsung Pan+12500
David Lipsky+12500
J. J. Spaun+12500
Kramer Hickok+12500
Lee Westwood+12500
Lucas Glover+12500
Matthias Schwab+12500
Richard Bland+12500
Adam Long+15000
Andrew D. Putnam+15000
Brendon Todd+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
Joseph Bramlett+15000
Min Woo Lee+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Sam Ryder+15000
Vincent Whaley+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Cameron Champ+17500
Danny Lee+17500
Harry Higgs+17500
Aaron Rai+20000
Adam Schenk+20000
Adam Svensson+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brandon Hagy+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Hudson Swafford+20000
Jimmy Walker+20000
JT Poston+20000
Kevin Chappell+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Kyle Stanley+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Nick Hardy+20000
Patrick Rodgers+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Tyler Duncan+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Brandt Snedeker+25000
Garrick Higgo+25000
Graeme McDowell+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
John Huh+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Max McGreevy+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Ryan Brehm+25000
Stephan Jaeger+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Ben Kohles+30000
Ben Martin+30000
Bill Haas+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Camilo Villegas+30000
Logan McAllister+30000
Nick Watney+30000
Richy Werenski+30000
Roger Sloan+30000
Seung-yul Noh+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Jared Wolfe+30000
Chesson Hadley+35000
Dylan Wu+35000
Guido Migliozzi+35000
James Hahn+35000
Paul Barjon+35000
Aaron Baddeley+35000
Austin Cook+50000
Ben Kern+50000
Bronson Burgoon+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie van der Walt+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
Jim Herman+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Ludvig Aberg+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
William McGirt+50000
Shawn Stefani+50000
Jake Kevorkian+50000
Samuel Saunders+50000
Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the Valero Texas Open.

Not much to report out of match play last week. Will Zalatoris was our best chance, but he ran out of gas against Kevin Kisner in the quarterfinals.

Now, with the Masters looming, we'll take a look at the Valero Texas Open, which represents the final opportunity for players to punch their ticket to Augusta.

The Course

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio tends to be one of the tougher tests on TOUR, although the past few times, between 17- and 20-under won the event. It’s a 7,435-yard par-72 track where if we get some wind, the scoring tends to get much more difficult.

The course plays pretty long and is likely to favor strong drivers.

Corey Conners, Andrew Landry, Charley Hoffman, Kevin Chappell, Brendan Steele and Jimmy Walker have all won here. It’s not the strongest group of champions because of where the tournament has been placed on the schedule in recent years, but all would consider the tee-ball one of the strongest parts of their game at the time they won.

The Favorites

Rory McIlroy opens the top of the board at around +750. This should be a good course for him. He hasn't played here since 2013, when he was second to Martin Laird. With his strength off the tee and decent form of late, he could take down this event without many of the top names to contend with.

The defending champ, Jordan Spieth is next at +1400. Spieth isn't the ideal fit here, but he does scramble well enough to make up for the lack of prowess off the tee. He won as the favorite last year but was entering that week in much better form.

Corey Conners comes in at +1800. The past winner is fresh off a third-place finish in match play and with a field devoid of star power, he slots in here this week. As a top line ball-striker, he fits well here. He's never finished worse than 26th in three appearances.

Hideki Matsuyama and Abraham Ancer open up that next tier at +2000. Hideki has some injury concerns, otherwise this would be a great price in this field. He still might be worth a look anyway given he still made his only cut in the past month, finishing 20th at the API.

Ancer had a decent run at the Match Play. He got out of his group and blasted Collin Morikawa before losing a tight match to Conners. He's played fine in San Antonio in the past, making the cut in all four of his starts, but he doesn't have a top-20 finish so it's hard to back him at that price for me.

Bryson DeChambeau closes out this range at +2500. There wasn't anything to suggest from match play that he's ready to win this week, getting bounced in probably the softest group by Richard Bland. He's never made the cut here in two starts, but the most recent one was back in 2017 and his style has certainly changed since then.

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The Mid-Tier

It'll be a pretty light card for me here.

Basically, for the past decade, we've either seen favorites or longshots win here. This tournament has fallen around the Masters quite a bit on the schedule, so many players tend to skip, which might be way we either get someone at the top of the board who just shows up and plays well like Spieth did or the winner comes out of nowhere completely without having to get by as many of the highest level players.

Guys like Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley and Si Woo Kim all looked fine for me coming into the week, but I wanted more than the +3300 type prices that were out there.

I'll make one bet on Tony Finau, who is +4000 at a few places, including BetMGM. He played pretty well his last two matches and cruised past Xander Schauffele to finish the week. He has also contended here in 2017, finishing third. Overall, Finau's game has been out of sorts, but Florida has never really been a good spot for him. If his form is starting to come around, that price is fair in this field.

Outside of that, I'll look for live plays during the week. Otherwise, I'm just sticking with some longshots and if nothing pops up, we'll move on to Augusta.

Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet Perry's longshots.

The Longshots

This tournament has produced its fair share of surprise winners. Conners was a Monday qualifier the year he won. Steven Bowditch was well over 300-1 in many spots, and Ben Curtis and Andrew Landry were also triple digits.

There are a few guys I'm playing here, starting with Rasmus Hojgaard at 100/1 on DraftKings. Hojgaard came back from a month layoff to place sixth at Corales. He's been able to rack up a few wins in Europe the past couple of seasons so I don't mind trying him here at a big number without many of the top stars fresh off a good week.

I also like here starting with Austin Smotherman at 250-1 on PointsBet. Smotherman played well here at the Korn Ferry event two years ago, leading after 36 holes before winding up in fourth. He also gained five strokes on approach two weeks ago at the Valspar before struggling at Corales last week. Overall, this should be a comfortable spot for the Texas resident.

We'll also go to Paul Barjon who is 500-1 on PointsBet. The recent form is nowhere to be found with him. This just goes back to those two weeks in San Antonio on the KFT where he finished 2nd and 3rd. It's a spot where the TCU alum has been successful in the past.

I'll close here with a couple of international players in Min Woo Lee at 150-1 and Garrick Higgo at 250-1, both on PointsBet. Neither has been playing too well recently, but I think the shift away from Florida where precision tends to play a bigger role because of all the water may suit these two better. They're both very long off the tee and can get hot with the putter.

Min Woo didn't really do much wrong the last two days at Match Play after struggling in the opener against Billy Horschel. Higgo put up decent results in Dubai and Phoenix before the shift to Florida, as well. Both guys could finish well outside the cut, but also have the upside to contend in this kind of field if they play well.

For all of those longshots, we' tack on top 20s when they're available.

The Valero Card

  • Tony Finau +4000 (.83 units)
  • Rasmus Hojgaard +10000 (.33 units)
  • Min Woo Lee +15000 (.22 units)
  • Garrick Higgo +25000 (.13 units)
  • Austin Smotherman +28000 (.12 units)
  • Paul Barjon +50000 (.07 units)

Total Stake: 1.7 units

Bet the Valero Texas Open at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

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