2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets & Odds: Expert Picks Include Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose & More

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge odds board and found their favorite picks.

Scottie Scheffler sits atop any look at the odds for the tournament at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, but unlike two weeks ago, fellow hometown favorite Jordan Spieth is in the field after missing the AT&T Byron Nelson with a wrist injury. After 14 consecutive top-12 finishes including a T5 at TPC Craig Ranch and T2 at Oak Hill this past weekend, Scheffler looks to return to the winner's circle at Colonial.

Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers they're backing for big weeks at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews below.

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Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Jordan Spieth
• Chris Murphy: Justin Rose
• Matt Vincenzi: Jordan Spieth
• Spencer Aguiar: Russell Henley
• Nick Bretwisch: Tony Finau

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Emiliano Grillo
• Murphy: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
• Vincenzi: Andrew Putnam
• Aguiar: Brian Harman
• Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Viktor Hovland
• Murphy: Jordan Spieth
• Vincenzi: Cameron Davis
• Aguiar: Ryan Palmer
• Bretwisch: Cameron Davis

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Eric Cole
• Aguiar: Si Woo Kim
• Bretwisch: Billy Horschel

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: There are more approach shots from 100-125 yards, 125-150 yards and 150-175 yards annually at Colonial than the average PGA Tour venue – which is another way of saying there are a lot of wedge shots into these greens and not many long irons.

At 7,209 yards, Colonial isn’t just one of the shorter tracks, but it also has a few strong comps on the schedule in Waialae (Sony Open), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) and TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship). Course history at those venues should provide plenty of data and info toward trying to figure out the puzzle pieces for this one.

Aguiar: Colonial Country Club presents the feared answer of a venue that starts to morph into a pitch-and-putt contest as we see 6.2% more putts get made from 10-25 feet than average.

That explanation suggests irons won't be hit as close as we are used to on a given week. However, we also get a 4.1% increase in dispersion of scoring for strokes gained on an expected 8% increase from 125-175 yards.

My model believes that hitting a green in regulation is worth more than any aspect we are trying to weigh for the event, and the ability to make those opportunities at a higher frequency with the putter will be what decides who wins in Texas.

Bretwisch: It looks like the weather should be rather calm this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which should set this up for a tee-to-green slugfest with a nice field of ball-strikers.

As Sobel mentioned above, we’ll want to target quality short-to-mid iron ball-strikers who can succeed on Bentgrass greens.

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2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks

Sobel: Jordan Spieth +1400 (FanDuel)

There are several reasons why Colonial Country Club sets up ideally for Jordan Spieth to capture his long-awaited first victory of the year this week. Let’s start with last week, where he finished T29. Entering with a wrist injury that had forced him to miss the AT&T Byron Nelson, he not only gutted his way through the week, but he improved each day by posting descending scores of 73-72-71-69.

Spieth’s short game is always impressive, but his ability to consistently outdrive final-round playing partner Dustin Johnson was a testament to the length he’s gained over the past few years – not to mention a strong hint that the injury had subsided. If he was really still hurting, I have a feeling he’d skip this one rather than put the final two majors of the summer in jeopardy, so it’s a good sign just that he’s playing.

Of course, some of that rationale might have to do with host course Colonial, which has been Spieth's personal ATM over the years. In 10 career starts, he owns nine finishes of 14th or better, including a win and three runners-up.

I was on-air each day on PGA Championship Radio last week with (among others) Fred Albers, the great on-course commentator who might’ve watched more golf from Spieth in-person over the past decade than anyone not named Michael Greller. While Freddie doesn’t delve too deep into the prognostication game, he’s extremely optimistic about Spieth’s game moving forward. If it’s good enough for him, it’s good enough for me.

Pick: Jordan Spieth Outright

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Murphy: Justin Rose +2800 (FanDuel)

There’s going to be talk about whether players who were in contention at the PGA Championship are going to be drained mentally and physically after the grind at Oak Hill. Justin Rose is one of the guys who could be lumped into that thought process, but I try not to put too much into narratives.

Instead, I will focus on the great play from Rose — he gained nearly seven shots on the major championship field with his approach play. He dropped back from his starting position on Sunday, but it didn’t have anything to do with his irons as he put together his best day on approach, gaining 2.54 shots on the field.

It was a continuous trend for him as he improved on approach in every single round — if he can carry that positive momentum into the Charles Schwab, he could win the event for a second time. At +2800, his combination of form and course fit make Rose a top value for me.

Pick: Justin Rose Outright +2800

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Vincenzi: Collin Morikawa +1800 (BetMGM)

Collin Morikawa has gone winless on the PGA Tour since his improbable Open Championship victory in July of 2021. Although winning is hard, that’s come as a bit of a surprise considering the torrid pace in which he began his career. The now-26-year-old won four events in the span of roughly a year between 2020 and 2021.

Since then, Morikawa has been close to a victory on multiple occasions. He has four top-10 finishes in 2023 and seems to be knocking at the door for another win soon.

Colonial should be an ideal spot for Morikawa to contend once again. He’s had strong results at the course in his three trips including a second and a 14th-place finish prior to his disappointing 40th last year. As impressive as his first two finishes were, his statistics in those three starts were even stronger. He gained an average of 6.7 strokes on approach against the field at Colonial and was only held back by the putter in 2022.

In addition to the strong course form, Morikawa’s ball striking numbers are beginning to come around. They aren’t quite where they were when he was winning at an unconscious clip, but in his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 4.0 strokes on the field per event.

The putter has still been a major issue, but he’s putted well (+3.2 SG: Putting in 2020) at Colonial before, so perhaps something about the pure Bentgrass greens can spark a putting resurgence this week.

This is one of the better spots on the schedule for Morikawa to get back in the winner's circle.

Aguiar: Michael Block to Miss the Cut -210 (DraftKings)

I understand that I am a boring person and a killjoy. The Michael Block story at the PGA Championship was the ultimate feel-good story of the week, but that finish at Oak Hill Country Club has presented value on the board for us to take him on during this event at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Block ranked last in my model for weighted totals across tee-to-green, scoring and proximity. Laying the juice against Block is nonetheless quite valuable since books have presented an opening as I have this number around -400 for him to miss the cut.

If it weren't for last week's result, there is no world where a golfer of Block's stature would have been priced in this range. Value is value at the end of the day.

Bretwisch: Russell Henley Top-40 -137 (Barstool / BetRivers)

Yes, I am a Russell Henley fanboy, but this is an egregious pricing error from the Kambi shops that will likely disappear well before the tee times on Thursday morning.

My numbers are proper at -250, so I’ll take the price grab and move on.