2023 Honda Classic Best Bets: Odds & Picks for Yuan, Im & Vegas

2023 Honda Classic Best Bets: Odds & Picks for Yuan, Im & Vegas article feature image

Via James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Carl Yuan of China plays his shot from the 18th tee during the third round of the Korn Ferry Tour Championship presented by United Leasing and Financing at Victoria National Golf Club on September 03, 2022 in Newburgh, Indiana.

Click arrow to expand The Honda Classic odds via PointsBet
Player NameOdds
Sungjae Im+1000
Shane Lowry+1600
Aaron Wise+2200
Billy Horschel+2500
Matt Kuchar+2800
Adam Svensson+2800
Denny Mccarthy+3000
Min Woo Lee+3000
Chris Kirk+3300
J.T. Poston+3500
Taylor Pendrith+3500
Jhonattan Vegas+3500
Harris English+3500
Thomas Detry+3500
Adrian Meronk+4000
Byeong Hun An+4500
Cam Davis+4500
Robby Shelton+4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+4500
Hayden Buckley+4500
Stephan Jaeger+4500
Will Gordon+4500
Lee Hodges+5000
Sepp Straka+5000
S.H. Kim+5000
Joseph Bramlett+5000
Ben Griffin+5000
Aaron Rai+6000
Brandon Wu+6000
Danny Willett+6000
Davis Riley+6600
Ryan Palmer+6600
Padraig Harrington+6600
Nick Hardy+6600
Garrick Higgo+7500
Justin Suh+7500
Adam Schenk+8000
Dylan Frittelli+9000
Sam Stevens+9000
Charley Hoffman+9000
Webb Simpson+9000
Erik Van Rooyen+9000
Mark Hubbard+9000
Callum Tarren+10000
Carl Yuan+10000
Harry Hall+10000
Peter Malnati+10000
Eric Cole+10000
Russell Knox+11000
Matt Wallace+11000
Ben Taylor+11000
Michael Kim+12500
Matti Schmid+12500
Mj Daffue+12500
Adam Long+12500
Ben Martin+12500
Aaron Baddeley+12500
Kevin Tway+12500
Tyler Duncan+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
Erik Barnes+12500
Harry Higgs+15000
Andrew Novak+15000
Austin Eckroat+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Vincent Norrman+17500
Chesson Hadley+17500
Kramer Hickok+17500
Zecheng Dou+17500
Dylan Wu+17500
Satoshi Kodaira+17500
Luke Donald+17500
Akshay Bhatia+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Austin Cook+20000
Henrik Norlander+20000
Augusto Núñez+20000
Brent Grant+25000
Kyle Westmoreland+25000
Chris Stroud+25000
Ryan Moore+25000
Doc Redman+25000
Tyson Alexander+25000
Ryan Armour+25000
Pierceson Coody+25000
David Lingmerth+25000
Sean O'hair+25000
Harrison Endycott+30000
S.Y. Noh+30000
Martin Trainer+30000
Nico Echavarria+30000
Tano Goya+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Jonas Blixt+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Jason Dufner+35000
Paul Haley Ii+35000
Rory Sabbatini+35000
Brice Garnett+35000
Zac Blair+35000
Richy Werenski+35000
Ben Silverman+35000
Cameron Percy+40000
Jimmy Walker+40000
Jonathan Byrd+40000
Brian Stuard+40000
Fabián Gómez+40000
Kevin Roy+40000
Michael Gligic+40000
Curtis Thompson+40000
Kevin Chappell+40000
Grayson Murray+40000
Andrew Kozan+50000
Trevor Cone+50000
Chad Ramey+50000
Andrew Landry+50000
Cody Gribble+50000
Trevor Werbylo+50000
Scott Harrington+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Scott Brown+50000
Trace Crowe+50000
William Mcgirt+60000
Jim Herman+60000
Bill Haas+60000
Anders Albertson+60000
Carson Young+60000
J.B. Holmes+60000
Brandon Matthews+60000
Brian Gay+60000
Brett Drewitt+60000
Ryan Gerard+60000
Max Mcgreevy+70000
Kyle Stanley+70000
Parker Coody+70000
Tyler Collet+100000
Marcus Byrd+100000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Ben Crane+100000
Arjun Atwal+100000
Geoff Ogilvy+100000

The PGA TOUR heads down to Florida for The Honda Classic after concluding the West Coast swing, and our Action Network golf experts are ready with a handful of angles to attack PGA National. Find which favorites they're backing, their top long shot picks, their favorite fades and, of course, their best bets for The Honda Classic.

Favorite We’re Backing

Pick: Taylor Pendrith Outright +4000

Best Long Shot

  • Jason Sobel: Robby Shelton
  • Chris Murphy: S.H. Kim
  • Matt Vincenzi: Danny Willett
  • Spencer Aguiar: Carl Yuan
  • Nick Bretwisch: Ryan Palmer

Biggest Bust

  • Jason Sobel: Sepp Straka
  • Chris Murphy: Billy Horschel
  • Matt Vincenzi: Min Woo Lee
  • Spencer Aguiar: Garrick Higgo
  • Nick Bretwisch: Min Woo Lee

Contrarian Player to Target

  • Jason Sobel: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Chris Murphy: Joseph Bramlett
  • Matt Vincenzi: Andrew Novak
  • Spencer Aguiar: Sam Stevens
  • Nick Bretwisch: Ryan Palmer

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: I’m combining a recent trend and a tournament trend, which have some contrasting characteristics. So far this year, pre-tourney favorites have won three of seven PGA TOUR events, which can be referred to as the Jon Rahm trend, since he won ‘em all. Makes sense, right? Best player is favored, and the best player wins because the best player is – get this – the best player.

That doesn’t often happen at the Honda, though, where players with triple-digit odds have won five of the last 10 titles. Hence the strategy: Play some Sungjae Im, who’s this week’s favorite and (by far) the most talented player in the field, then complement that play with a small sprinkling of longshots, trying to hit a lottery ticket if the proverbial sure thing doesn’t come through.

Murphy: I’m trending away from the course history reliance that has supported the last few weeks and focusing more on recent form. PGA National and the Bear Trap create a lot of volatility year after year leading players to have a large variance in results with several having top-10 finishes along with multiple missed cuts.

The one trend that has stuck is that each of the last six winners have posted a T16 or better during their play to start the year on the West Coast. I’ll be looking for an in-form ball striker, who is playing well throughout the bag coming into the week.

Aguiar: Water is the great equalizer when it comes to volatility and potential combustibility. It is not something we can accurately depict when running a model, but there is something cathartic and beautiful about building totals that analyze who will be less likely to generate mistakes versus the redundant aspect of trying to find birdie makers. We do that every week, so adding a change to the structure might help those that dive a little deeper into the numbers.

Bretwisch: Recent form for quality ball-strikers will be my focus this week. We all know about the water hazards littered around this course, so we’ll need to rely on players who are striking the ball well and with confidence. My expected path to success is focused on those gaining strokes off the tee and are overall strong iron players from 125-200 yards.

Your Best Bet

Sobel: Sungjae Im Top 10 +105

Are the odds great? Of course not, nor should they be. But if I have the option between, say, a small underdog in a H2H matchup and Im finishing in the top 10, I’m taking the latter. He owns top-10 finishes in two of four previous Honda starts (including a win) and two of his last three starts this season. In what should be a weird week with so many top players staying home, I like going after the best in the field and hoping to hit some longer odds elsewhere.

Murphy: Danny Willett +7000 (BetRivers)

I’m going to have to stretch my trend from above just a bit as Danny Willett posted a T18 finish last week at the Genesis, falling just short of the T16 that the past six winners have had. Still, he comes into the week in great form after gaining three shots with his ball striking and 5.8 strokes tee to green. He did all of that in an elite elevated field and will now carry great form throughout his bag across to this week at the Honda where he made his tournament debut last year. Willett also has winning upside and experience that is hard to come by in this field, making him for an easy play in my eyes at such a strong number this week.

Vincenzi: Jhonattan Vegas +3500 (FanDuel)

Jhonattan Vegas returned in January from a five-month hiatus and has been playing solid golf since. In his four starts, Vegas has two top-25 finishes and has been really impressive with his ball striking.

He's gained an average of 3.3 strokes off the tee and 1.6 strokes on approach in the four outings. Last week at Riviera in a loaded field, Vegas gained 5.9 strokes ball striking. In his past 24 rounds in this field, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, fourth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and second in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

The Venezuelan has struggled with the putter a bit this year. Last week was especially horrific, as he lost 6.9 strokes putting. Going to Florida should help as PGA National features Bermudagrass greens, where he's been much more consistent over the course of his career. He's also played the Honda Classic really well, with finishes of fourth (2017), 12th (2014), 27th (2019) and 16th (2019). With the field even weaker than usual this week, Vegas should be able to contend for a victory.

Aguiar: Carl Yuan Top 20 +850 (Bet365)

There are various routes to consider if you want to back Carl Yuan with a head-to-head wager, but let's embrace the volatility of this course and take a swing on him to land a top 20 at 8.5 with our friends at Bet365.

While I would consider the early stages of Yuan's career on the PGA Tour as anything but steady, it is essential to remember that we are only a few months removed from him being a sub-100/1 golfer in fields much better than the one he will take on this week. Part of that intrigue from bettors came from his immaculate ball striking that often got undone by his inconsistent short game.

However, the main factor we should highlight at PGA National is that an errant approach shot will mostly find the bottom of the water or the 100+ bunkers present. That means his overall enhancement in quality with that sector of his game should receive a boost, and his 47th-place rank in sand save rate only adds to that intrigue that this could be the week he finally realizes his potential.

Bretwisch: Ryan Palmer +7000 (DraftKings)

It appears as if Ryan Palmer is turning back the clock a bit and finding some quality form. I don’t love his recent finishes (nothing better than T32 in Hawaii), but what I do love is that he’s gained strokes off the tee in three out of his last four events and gained strokes with his approach play in each of his last four. In this weak field and his recent form, I would price Palmer in that 50/1 – 60/1 range.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.