2023 the Memorial Tournament Best Bets & PGA Tour Odds: Expert Picks for Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala, Viktor Hovland & Harris English

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Memorial Tournament presented by Workday odds board and found their favorite picks.

Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm once again have the shortest odds to win this week at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Scheffler enters with 15 consecutive top-12 finishes in PGA Tour events after most recently tying for third at last weekend's Charles Schwab Challenge. Rahm is coming off of a tie for 50th at the PGA Championship, but he already has a win at Jack's place and likely would have a second win had he not been forced to withdraw in 2021 when he held a six-stroke lead with 18 holes to play.

Which golfers have a chance at taking on Scheffler and Rahm this week at the Memorial? Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets. Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews below.

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Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Patrick Cantlay
• Chris Murphy: Patrick Cantlay
• Matt Vincenzi: Viktor Hovland
• Spencer Aguiar: Rickie Fowler
• Nick Bretwisch: Collin Morikawa

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Sahith Theegala
• Murphy: Sahith Theegala
• Vincenzi: Shane Lowry
• Aguiar: Si Woo Kim
• Bretwisch: Shane Lowry

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton
• Murphy: Xander Schauffele
• Vincenzi: Sahith Theegala
• Aguiar: Viktor Hovland
• Bretwisch: Viktor Hovland

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Kurt Kitayama
• Murphy: Si Woo Kim
• Vincenzi: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
• Aguiar: Keegan Bradley
• Bretwisch: Keegan Bradley

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Using the archives at golfodds.com, last week Emiliano Grillo tied Wyndham Clark (at the Wells Fargo Championship) by becoming the PGA Tour winners with the longest pre-tournament odds since Kurt Kitayama (200/1 at the API) and Nico Echavarria (100/1 at the Puerto Rico Open) nearly three months earlier.

Now we head to a course which was once the domain of favorites (Tiger Woods won five times) and for a couple of years the place for longshots (David Lingmerth in 2015; Will McGirt in 2016). However, more recently Muirfield Village has become a haven for big-name players whose prices looked just a few points too big prior to the start of the tournament.

From Bryson DeChambeau (40/1) in 2018 to Jon Rahm (20/1) in 2020 to Patrick Cantlay’s second victory (20/1) in 2021 and even Billy Horschel (60/1) last year, there’s a common theme in that none of these Memorial Tournament winners had shown great form entering the week. Those four had combined for exactly zero top-20 finishes in their previous two starts, pushing them further down the odds board.

That’s not to suggest that we shouldn’t bet an in-form player (my pick below certainly is), only that we shouldn’t cross anyone off our list just because he has struggled a bit lately.

Aguiar: The 150 yards added to this course in 2021 changed the landscape and complexion of the event. The expected answer would be the need for distance, but the four-inch thick rough altered the tournament and emphasized finding fairways. We can see that with a 71.3% driving accuracy total in 2022 but 59.2% GIR rate.

That tells me a concerted effort was made to reward driving accuracy and punish wayward drives in today's distance-heavy essence of golf.

Bretwisch: It’s Jack’s place. I’ll be prioritizing five-tool golfers who are in elite ball-striking form but can also scramble around these extremely small Bentgrass greens when missed in regulation.

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2023 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Picks

Sobel: Viktor Hovland +2000 (FanDuel)

This is a selection two weeks in the making. Following his close call at the PGA Championship, I liked Hovland to bounce back for a victory soon enough, but not at Colonial last week – in fact, I was hoping he’d be an early withdrawal or perhaps miss the cut just to leave some juice in the tank for this one.

Instead, he finished a humdrum T16 thanks to a final-round three-over 73 and ball-striking numbers which were fairly ordinary against a somewhat inferior field (per Datagolf, Hovland lost 0.56 strokes ball striking at the Charles Schwab Challenge).

All of that might’ve been the worst possible scenario if we wanted to portend success at Muirfield Village, but I’m willing to overlook some things for Vik, including a record that includes nothing better than a 47th-place finish in three previous starts at the Memorial.

However, Hovland does have a T3 at Muirfield Village from the 2020 Workday Charity Open.
Much of Hovland’s recent struggles at the Memorial likely have to do with the fact that the field hits fewer greens in regulation here than at the average PGA Tour venue, and Hovland, of course, has struggled with his short game in previous years.

Case in point: Last year, he lost 1.42 strokes to field around the greens at this event. He’s been much better recently, though, gaining strokes with his wedges in three of his previous six starts and barely losing them in the other three. This tells us that Hovland is extremely dangerous because of his long- and mid-iron game when, instead of being one of the worst short game players in the field, he’s simply neutral in that area.

In his third-place finish at the 2020 Workday Charity Open, he gained 0.63 strokes per round around the greens at Muirfield Village, so he has already experienced success here with his wedges before.

I’ll have him for DFS lineups and OAD pools – anywhere we can get a little edge on those who might fade him based on prior results and last week’s stats – but I think he makes for a smart outright option to top your card this week.

Pick: Viktor Hovland Outright +2000

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Murphy: Sahith Theegala +6000 (FanDuel)

There are a bunch of names at the very top of the board that will be in the mix for the win this weekend, but as Billy Horschel showed us last year, there is still room for the longer shots to contend at the Memorial.

Sahith Theegala is my favorite of that bunch, and his number fits the bill as his ball-striking ability when he is on can vault him to the top of any leaderboard. His game actually compares well to that of Horschel as they both have a premier shot making ability and ball-striking rhythm when they are in the flow of the event.

If he can channel what Billy did last year and make some putts of his own, I like his chances to be in the hunt down the back stretch of the tournament over the weekend. If he can put himself in that position again, we know it’s just a matter of time before things bounce his way for that first win.

Pick: Sahith Theegala +6000

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Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (FanDuel)

If you could build the perfect player (besides Tiger Woods) to compete at Muirfield Village, it might be Hideki Matsuyama. He is a fantastic iron player who is spectacular around the greens and does his best work on Bentgrass. We also have a good deal of evidence to back up his course fit. Hideki got his first career win at Muirfield Village back in 2014 and has been great there ever since. After the victory, Matsuyama has posted finishes of fifth, 13th and sixth among seven starts at the course.

Matsuyama’s health has been a concern all year long, but it seems as if he’s finally turned a corner. Recently, his approach numbers are more consistent with what we’ve grown accustomed to with the Japanese star. In his two starts this month, he’s gained 5.1 strokes (AT&T Byron Nelson) and 4.1 strokes (PGA Championship) on the field on approach. Matsuyama struck it fantastically at Oak Hill, gaining 10.6 strokes from tee to green, which ranked eighth in the field.

Matusyama’s strong play at the PGA Championship combined with a week of rest following the major makes me confident he’ll be healthy and ready to go at one of his favorite courses on Tour in Muirfield Village.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright +4000

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Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama -110 Over Sam Burns -110 (DraftKings)

Calling anything a "best bet" on this board might be giving the event too much respect. However, I am extremely intrigued by Hideki Matsuyama in all sectors this week, including in the head-to-head market against an opponent with some red flags to his profile.

Burns ranked a paltry 88th in my recalculated GIR + total driving category, and the weighted tee-to-green numbers were not much better, as he failed to crack the top 50 golfers in this field.

It is not often that you see me in these star-versus-star battles, but Burns's 35th-place overall rank in my sheet landed him 20 positions below consensus in the outright market when comparing him to other names on the board. That should present enough value to take one of my favorite golfers in this field against him.

Bretwisch: Harris English Top-40 +120 (Barstool / BetRivers)

I’ll be going back to the well on what my numbers believe is another pricing error from the Kambi shops. It’s a bit uncomfortable for me to buy-in to Harris English’s recent form, but his iron play has been lights out throughout May, and we know he has an elite short game to stick around for the weekend.

I have this priced closer to -150.