2023 the Memorial Tournament Best Bets & PGA Tour Odds: Expert Picks for Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala, Viktor Hovland & Harris English

2023 the Memorial Tournament Best Bets & PGA Tour Odds: Expert Picks for Hideki Matsuyama, Sahith Theegala, Viktor Hovland & Harris English article feature image

Via David Cannon/Getty Images. Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama of Japan plays his tee shot on the fourth hole during the second round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 19, 2023 in Rochester, New York.

Click arrow to expand the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday odds via bet365
Scottie Scheffler+700
Jon Rahm+750
Patrick Cantlay+1100
Xander Schauffele+1500
Rory McIlroy+1500
Viktor Hovland+2000

Collin Morikawa+2700
Justin Thomas+2700
Jason Day+2700
Tyrrell Hatton+2700
Sungjae Im+3500
Cameron Young+3500
Jordan Spieth+3800
Matt Fitzpatrick+3800
Hideki Matsuyama+3800
Rickie Fowler+3800
Sam Burns+4500
Corey Conners+5000
Shane Lowry+5500
Sahith Theegala+5500
Adam Scott+5500
Si Woo Kim+5500
Wyndham Clark+6000
Russell Henley+6000
Tom Kim+6500
Keegan Bradley+7500

Keith Mitchell+11000
Emiliano Grillo+11000
Matt Kuchar+11000
Gary Woodland+11000
Cameron Davis+11000
Denny McCarthy+11000
Harris English+11000
Kurt Kitayama+12000
Brian Harman+14000
Chris Kirk+14000
Billy Horschel+14000
Byeong-Hun An+14000
Ryan Fox+14000
Adam Hadwin+14000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+14000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+14000
Lucas Herbert+14000
Tom Hoge+14000
Seamus Power+16500
Taylor Montgomery+17500
Stephan Jaeger+17500
Patrick Rodgers+17500
Kevin Streelman+17500
J.J. Spaun+17500
Hayden Buckley+17500
Sepp Straka+18500
Thomas Detry+20000
Adam Schenk+20000

Nicolai Hojgaard+22500
Davis Riley+22500
Beau Hossler+22500
Alex Smalley+22500
Eric Cole+22500
Adam Svensson+22500
Justin Suh+22500
J.T. Poston+25000
Brendon Todd+25000
Brandon Wu+25000
Will Gordon+25000
Andrew Putnam+25000
Joseph Bramlett+30000
Alex Noren+30000
S.H. Kim+30000
Luke List+30000
Taylor Pendrith+30000
Austin Eckroat+30000
Sam Bennett+32500
Akshay Bhatia+32500
Ben Griffin+32500
Sam Stevens+32500
Mackenzie Hughes+32500
Mark Hubbard+35000
Robby Shelton+35000
Joel Dahmen+35000
Sam Ryder+35000
Matthew Nesmith+35000
Matt Wallace+40000
Garrick Higgo+45000
Davis Thompson+45000
Lee Hodges+45000
Danny Willett+45000
Scott Stallings+45000
Stewart Cink+45000
Nick Hardy+45000
Francesco Molinari+45000

David Lipsky+50000
Chez Reavie+60000
Christopher Gotterup+60000
Lanto Griffin+60000
Brandt Snedeker+60000
MJ Daffue+75000
Lucas Glover+75000
David Micheluzzi+75000
Adam Long+75000
Chad Ramey+75000
Justin Lower+100000
Kevin Kisner+100000
Zach Johnson+100000
Peter Malnati+100000
Aldrich Potgieter+100000
Ben Taylor+100000
Thriston Lawrence+100000
Trey Mullinax+100000
Nicolas Echavarria+125000
David Lingmerth+125000
Luke Donald+125000
Kazuki Higa+125000
Troy Merritt+200000
Dylan Frittelli+200000
K.J. Choi+300000
William McGirt+300000
Jason Dufner+300000
Bo Hoag+300000

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Memorial Tournament presented by Workday odds board and found their favorite picks.

Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm once again have the shortest odds to win this week at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Scheffler enters with 15 consecutive top-12 finishes in PGA Tour events after most recently tying for third at last weekend's Charles Schwab Challenge. Rahm is coming off of a tie for 50th at the PGA Championship, but he already has a win at Jack's place and likely would have a second win had he not been forced to withdraw in 2021 when he held a six-stroke lead with 18 holes to play.

Which golfers have a chance at taking on Scheffler and Rahm this week at the Memorial? Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets. Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews below.

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Favorites We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Sahith Theegala
  • Murphy: Sahith Theegala
  • Vincenzi: Shane Lowry
  • Aguiar: Si Woo Kim
  • Bretwisch: Shane Lowry

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton
  • Murphy: Xander Schauffele
  • Vincenzi: Sahith Theegala
  • Aguiar: Viktor Hovland
  • Bretwisch: Viktor Hovland

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Kurt Kitayama
  • Murphy: Si Woo Kim
  • Vincenzi: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
  • Aguiar: Keegan Bradley
  • Bretwisch: Keegan Bradley

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Using the archives at golfodds.com, last week Emiliano Grillo tied Wyndham Clark (at the Wells Fargo Championship) by becoming the PGA Tour winners with the longest pre-tournament odds since Kurt Kitayama (200/1 at the API) and Nico Echavarria (100/1 at the Puerto Rico Open) nearly three months earlier.

Now we head to a course which was once the domain of favorites (Tiger Woods won five times) and for a couple of years the place for longshots (David Lingmerth in 2015; Will McGirt in 2016). However, more recently Muirfield Village has become a haven for big-name players whose prices looked just a few points too big prior to the start of the tournament.

From Bryson DeChambeau (40/1) in 2018 to Jon Rahm (20/1) in 2020 to Patrick Cantlay’s second victory (20/1) in 2021 and even Billy Horschel (60/1) last year, there’s a common theme in that none of these Memorial Tournament winners had shown great form entering the week. Those four had combined for exactly zero top-20 finishes in their previous two starts, pushing them further down the odds board.

That’s not to suggest that we shouldn’t bet an in-form player (my pick below certainly is), only that we shouldn’t cross anyone off our list just because he has struggled a bit lately.

Aguiar: The 150 yards added to this course in 2021 changed the landscape and complexion of the event. The expected answer would be the need for distance, but the four-inch thick rough altered the tournament and emphasized finding fairways. We can see that with a 71.3% driving accuracy total in 2022 but 59.2% GIR rate.

That tells me a concerted effort was made to reward driving accuracy and punish wayward drives in today's distance-heavy essence of golf.

Bretwisch: It’s Jack’s place. I’ll be prioritizing five-tool golfers who are in elite ball-striking form but can also scramble around these extremely small Bentgrass greens when missed in regulation.

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2023 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday Picks

Sobel: Viktor Hovland +2000 (FanDuel)

This is a selection two weeks in the making. Following his close call at the PGA Championship, I liked Hovland to bounce back for a victory soon enough, but not at Colonial last week – in fact, I was hoping he’d be an early withdrawal or perhaps miss the cut just to leave some juice in the tank for this one.

Instead, he finished a humdrum T16 thanks to a final-round three-over 73 and ball-striking numbers which were fairly ordinary against a somewhat inferior field (per Datagolf, Hovland lost 0.56 strokes ball striking at the Charles Schwab Challenge).

All of that might’ve been the worst possible scenario if we wanted to portend success at Muirfield Village, but I’m willing to overlook some things for Vik, including a record that includes nothing better than a 47th-place finish in three previous starts at the Memorial.

However, Hovland does have a T3 at Muirfield Village from the 2020 Workday Charity Open.
Much of Hovland’s recent struggles at the Memorial likely have to do with the fact that the field hits fewer greens in regulation here than at the average PGA Tour venue, and Hovland, of course, has struggled with his short game in previous years.

Case in point: Last year, he lost 1.42 strokes to field around the greens at this event. He’s been much better recently, though, gaining strokes with his wedges in three of his previous six starts and barely losing them in the other three. This tells us that Hovland is extremely dangerous because of his long- and mid-iron game when, instead of being one of the worst short game players in the field, he’s simply neutral in that area.

In his third-place finish at the 2020 Workday Charity Open, he gained 0.63 strokes per round around the greens at Muirfield Village, so he has already experienced success here with his wedges before.

I’ll have him for DFS lineups and OAD pools – anywhere we can get a little edge on those who might fade him based on prior results and last week’s stats – but I think he makes for a smart outright option to top your card this week.

Pick: Viktor Hovland Outright +2000

Murphy: Sahith Theegala +6000 (FanDuel)

There are a bunch of names at the very top of the board that will be in the mix for the win this weekend, but as Billy Horschel showed us last year, there is still room for the longer shots to contend at the Memorial.

Sahith Theegala is my favorite of that bunch, and his number fits the bill as his ball-striking ability when he is on can vault him to the top of any leaderboard. His game actually compares well to that of Horschel as they both have a premier shot making ability and ball-striking rhythm when they are in the flow of the event.

If he can channel what Billy did last year and make some putts of his own, I like his chances to be in the hunt down the back stretch of the tournament over the weekend. If he can put himself in that position again, we know it’s just a matter of time before things bounce his way for that first win.

Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama +4000 (FanDuel)

If you could build the perfect player (besides Tiger Woods) to compete at Muirfield Village, it might be Hideki Matsuyama. He is a fantastic iron player who is spectacular around the greens and does his best work on Bentgrass. We also have a good deal of evidence to back up his course fit. Hideki got his first career win at Muirfield Village back in 2014 and has been great there ever since. After the victory, Matsuyama has posted finishes of fifth, 13th and sixth among seven starts at the course.

Matsuyama’s health has been a concern all year long, but it seems as if he’s finally turned a corner. Recently, his approach numbers are more consistent with what we’ve grown accustomed to with the Japanese star. In his two starts this month, he’s gained 5.1 strokes (AT&T Byron Nelson) and 4.1 strokes (PGA Championship) on the field on approach. Matsuyama struck it fantastically at Oak Hill, gaining 10.6 strokes from tee to green, which ranked eighth in the field.

Matusyama’s strong play at the PGA Championship combined with a week of rest following the major makes me confident he’ll be healthy and ready to go at one of his favorite courses on Tour in Muirfield Village.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright +4000

Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama -110 Over Sam Burns -110 (DraftKings)

Calling anything a "best bet" on this board might be giving the event too much respect. However, I am extremely intrigued by Hideki Matsuyama in all sectors this week, including in the head-to-head market against an opponent with some red flags to his profile.

Burns ranked a paltry 88th in my recalculated GIR + total driving category, and the weighted tee-to-green numbers were not much better, as he failed to crack the top 50 golfers in this field.

It is not often that you see me in these star-versus-star battles, but Burns's 35th-place overall rank in my sheet landed him 20 positions below consensus in the outright market when comparing him to other names on the board. That should present enough value to take one of my favorite golfers in this field against him.

Bretwisch: Harris English Top-40 +120 (Barstool / BetRivers)

I’ll be going back to the well on what my numbers believe is another pricing error from the Kambi shops. It’s a bit uncomfortable for me to buy-in to Harris English’s recent form, but his iron play has been lights out throughout May, and we know he has an elite short game to stick around for the weekend.

I have this priced closer to -150.

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