2023 Tour Championship Round 4 Matchup Pick: Bet Tyrrell Hatton over Brian Harman

2023 Tour Championship Round 4 Matchup Pick: Bet Tyrrell Hatton over Brian Harman article feature image

Pictured: Tyrrell Hatton. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The FedExCup has turned into one of those lopsided Super Bowls that only presents intrigue if you're interested in watching the commercials.

Viktor Hovland has runaway with things over the past two days and holds a six-shot advantage over the field.

We'll see if any of the chasers can pull off some magic, but the 25-year-old is in the process of making an $18,000,000 statement that cements his stature in the game.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

Tour Championship Round 4 Matchup

Tyrrell Hatton -120 Over Brian Harman (DraftKings)

It has been a rather forgettable FedExCup Playoff run for me. Shortened fields that aren't presenting missed-cut equity is bad enough, but the high-end potential of these events has doubled down of the idea of not being able to fade golfers toward the bottom of the boards because there are no natural opponents to take on.

Unfortunately, many more slates of this nature are likely to occur in 2024 and beyond. Golf is changing how it does business, which has generated the worst betting boards I've encountered in the space over the past six years. That doesn't mean we can't find a way to steady a ship that has rendered nearly a 3% ROI increase this season, but some issues are going to be pronounced.

I say all of that to highlight that I'm cautiously dipping my toes back in the water four a fourth-round wager that only had about 15 points of value — Tyrrell Hatton over Brian Harman.

My model has been aggressively wanting to fade Harman this week because of his paltry weighted proximity, which graded 21 spots below his baseline projection in this field. That expectation has become a reality as the American has lost 2.13 shots to the field over three rounds.

I'm not necessarily saying the floor is as low as what my model deemed proper for his weighted strokes gained prediction, but it's hard to call his two-under output a success.

I don't know if I necessarily trust Hatton, but I'm going to view his two-over display on Saturday as more of an outlier.

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