Welcome back, folks. What an unbelievable performance from Gary Woodland this past week in Houston.
From everything he’s been through mentally and physically, facing uncertainty about whether he would ever tee it up again, to now getting his fifth win on the PGA Tour.
Just a dominant effort from the Kansas native. Pure and raw emotion on the 18th green. Brought me to tears. It was a beautiful thing to see. So happy to see Woodland playing elite golf again and back in the winners' circle. Onto the Valero Texas Open we go…
Valero Texas Open
We will be staying in Texas one more week for the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.
One last chance for a player to punch their ticket to play in our first major of the year next week at Augusta National.
Some of the best two weeks in golf. No need to waste any more time. Let’s get right into it.
TPC San Antonio
Similar to Memorial Park, TPC San Antonio is a long track, measuring just under 7,500 yards. A big component this week will be what the weather has in store. If the wind is ripping, expect the winner to be in the ten under range.
The field this week is quite strong despite no Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy, who have been leading the odds board for some time now. Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg will all be looking to round into some nice form before they take the stage at Augusta next week.
TPC San Antonio is a true ball-striking test. Driving the ball is difficult here. Hitting fairways is difficult here. Hitting greens is difficult here. Players who drive the ball straight, and players who are elite on approach, I believe, will have the best shot of winning this week.
Although the top of the board is quite interesting, there’s not a player I can really get to at such short odds. Rolling with a one-man card this week. Hopeful to play with some house money heading into the Masters next week.
Best Bet
Sepp Straka (+3300)
The only player I am betting on this week should not be a surprise to anyone who reads my stuff. Sepp Straka simply checks all of the boxes for me this week, and quite frankly, most weeks.
We last saw Straka at The Players where he finished T8. Prior to that was the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T13. Straka ranks fourth in strokes gained: approach over the last six months relative to the field.
As mentioned, TPC San Antonio is a place where approach shots and holding greens are very difficult. It makes sense because the green in regulation accuracy is also very difficult here.
Straka ranks second in strokes gained: approach when strokes gained: approach is difficult all time relative to the field. He hasn’t played here since 2023, where he finished T22.
Just looking at the past winners at this place: Brian Harman, Akshay Bhatia, Corey Conners, and JJ Spaun. All players who are very average in terms of distance off the tee, but all complete fairway finders. And that is simply what you must do here given how difficult fairway accuracy is. This is legit Straka to a tee.
Also, one correlated course to TPC San Antonio that constantly keeps popping up is PGA National where the Honda was played, now the Cognizant Classic. Straka won this event in 2022.
Everything just makes too much sense for Straka this week. I thought it was quite ridiculous he was not bunched with the top of the board. He’s better than half of those players.
This was an auto bet for me Sunday night. Very confident in the Austrian native, especially at the price this week.Expect his number to get bet down as the week goes on.
Great tune up before the first major of the year at Augusta. Big time preview coming next week for that. Let's go Sepp!
2026 Valero Texas Open Kalshi Odds
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