Paul Casey is one round away from the biggest victory of his career.

Casey hasn’t won anywhere in over three years and only owns one PGA tour victory in his career, but he’s been close what seems like dozens of times.

He’ll enter the final round of the Tour Championship at +125 with a two-shot lead over Kevin Kisner and Xander Schauffele.

Tour

This could be a spot to look way down the board for a winner. Casey has really struggled in these spots. Meanwhile, Kisner flew to the Georgia/Mississippi State game after his round, so it’s tough to say where he’ll be at mentally when the round gets going. Then we have Schauffele, who has really played well the last few months, but is still a rookie and hasn’t closed out a tournament of this caliber yet.

I’d target two plays here for a long shot. Jon Rahm at 28/1 and Justin Rose at 66/1 have both hit the ball incredibly well all week and just haven’t made a putt. Rose missed four putts inside seven feet in his first seven holes on Saturday. If either of them can get rolling, they’re playing well enough to shoot 63 or 64.

Looking back at Saturday’s plays, we went 2-2-1 for a gain of a 1/10 of a unit, bring the weekly total to 3-3-2 for 1.6 units.

Justin Thomas lost to Casey, which also lost the parlay. Kyle Stanley knocked off Adam Hadwin, and Brooks Koepka cruised past Jason Dufner. Rose ended up tying Gary Woodland.

I mentioned that I like Rahm’s and Rose’s chances at making big comebacks Sunday, and those are the two matchups I’m looking at for the final round.

I’ll take Rahm over Jason Day at -110 and Rose to beat Russell Henley at -190 to win a unit on each.

Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. He’s one of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22

Photo: © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

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