AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Longshot Picks: Matthew Wolff Among 3 Sleepers to Target

AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Longshot Picks: Matthew Wolff Among 3 Sleepers to Target article feature image

Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Wolff.

Click to expand AT&T Byron Nelson odds via BetMGM

AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

Scottie Scheffler+1000
Justin Thomas+1200
Sam Burns+2000
Dustin Johnson+2200
Jordan Spieth+2200
Will Zalatoris+2200
Xander Schauffele+2200
Hideki Matsuyama+2800
Brooks Koepka+3300
Joaquin Niemann+3300
Jhonattan Vegas+4000
Talor Gooch+4000
Tommy Fleetwood+4000
Aaron Wise+5000
Adam Hadwin+5000
Cameron Champ+5000
Davis Riley+5000
Jason Day+5000
Jason Kokrak+5000
Maverick McNealy+5000
Seamus Power+5000
Adam Scott+6600
Alex Noren+6600
Brian Harman+6600
Lanto Griffin+6600
Mito Pereira+6600
Patton Kizzire+6600
Bubba Watson+6600
Marc Leishman+6600
Si Woo Kim+6600
K.H. Lee+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Matthew Wolff+8000
Sebastian Munoz+8000
Sepp Straka+8000
Keith Mitchell+8000
Kevin Kisner+8000
Luke List+8000
Matthew NeSmith+8000
Patrick Rodgers+8000
Brandon Wu+10000
C.T. Pan+10000
Charles Howell III+10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+10000
David Lipsky+10000
J.J. Spaun+10000
Kurt Kitayama+10000
Mackenzie Hughes+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Tom Hoge+10000
Aaron Rai+12500
Brendon Todd+12500
Dylan Frittelli+12500
Ian Poulter+12500
Joohyung Kim+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Ryan Palmer+12500
Sahith Theegala+12500
Stephan Jaeger+12500
Branden Grace+15000
Carlos Ortiz+15000
Chez Reavie+15000
Danny Willett+15000
Emiliano Grillo+15000
Lee Westwood+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
James Hahn+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brian Stuard+20000
Doc Redman+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Martin Laird+20000
Pat Perez+20000
Tyler Duncan+20000
Vince Whaley+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Mark Hubbard+20000
Adam Schenk+25000
Adam Svensson+25000
Andrew Novak+25000
Beau Hossler+25000
Brandt Snedeker+25000
Brice Garnett+25000
Charl Schwartzel+25000
Francesco Molinari+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
Hudson Swafford+25000
John Huh+25000
Joseph Bramlett+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Kramer Hickok+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Robert Streb+25000
Rory Sabbatini+25000
Taylor Moore+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Andrew Putnam+30000
Charley Hoffman+30000
Harry Higgs+30000
Lee Hodges+30000
Michael Thompson+30000
Peter Uihlein+30000
Sam Ryder+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Shaun Norris+30000
Ben Kohles+35000
Brandon Hagy+35000
Callum Tarren+35000
Mac Meissner+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Roger Sloan+35000
Scott Gutschewski+35000
Wesley Bryan+35000
Cameron Percy+40000
Curtis Thompson+40000
Dylan Wu+40000
Hayden Buckley+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+40000
Paul Barjon+40000
Richy Werenski+40000
Ryan Brehm+40000
Vaughn Taylor+40000
Bill Haas+50000
Chesson Hadley+50000
David Skinns+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
James Hart du Preez+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Jason Dufner+50000
Kevin Tway+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Patrick Flavin+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-Yul Noh+50000
Sung Kang+50000
Austin Cook+75000
Brett Drewitt+75000
Jim Herman+75000
Joshua Creel+75000
Kyle Wilshire+75000
Cooper Dossey+100000
J.J. Killeen+100000
John Murphy+100000
Jonas Blixt+100000
Justin Leonard+100000
Andrew Loupe+100000
Conrad Shindler+100000
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The PGA Tour typically slows down a bit the week before a major championship. Many of the world’s best players opt for rest or time at a practice facility over four competitive rounds in the lead up to a major, yet with next weekend’s PGA Championship on the precipice, this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson field is stronger than expected.

For whatever reason, more of the best players on the PGA Tour are viewing this week’s event in at TPC Craig Ranch in the Dallas region as a tune-up for next week’s major at Southern Hills in Tulsa. This year, the AT&T Byron Nelson has seen its strength of field, measured by the Official World Golf Rankings, jump compared to previous seasons and the tournaments nearby on the schedule.

Only once before, in 2017, but it was marginal compared to this year…

— Nosferatu (@VC606) May 9, 2022

That leads to a better viewing experience for fans, but a tougher needle to thread for bettors hunting for a longshot. The heavy hitters at the top of the field make a surprise champion less likely, but they also create some more enticing odds for players with a real chance to contend on Sunday.

This group of three players jump off the board as potential sleepers.

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AT&T Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks

All odds via DraftKings.

Patton Kizzire +10000

In hunting for longshots this week, there isn’t much past performance history in our arsenal. The PGA Tour has visited this venue just once prior, for last year’s event. Kizzire played well that week, earning a T3 finish. He was in the top five in strokes gained for the week in both putting and approaching the green, a recipe for a strong score.

Kizzire is an Alabama native, but he has had some of his best performances on the PGA TOUR in the Lone Star State. In four of his five last starts in Texas, Kizzire has finished T11 or better, with two top-3 finishes in that span. In each of those events, he has found success with the same recipe: ball-striking from the fairway and making putts on the green.

If he can click into that rhythm again this weekend, he has a chance to make some noise as a dark horse.

Matthew Wolff +13000

Over the course of this season, Wolff has shown that when his game is firing at its best, he's still good enough to compete with the world’s best. His problem has been the ability to find his best week to week, or even day to day.

In his twelve worldwide starts this season, Wolff has five finishes in the top 25 but also has four missed cuts and two made cuts that resulted in finishes outside the top 60.

Even within a tournament, his play fluctuates wildly. Last weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship, Wolff led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee on Thursday. In Friday’s second round, he ranked 120th in the field in the very same statistic. Saturday, he was one of the five best players tee-to-green in the field. On Sunday, it was his driver that bit him again, with him ranking last in the field off the tee.

Needless to say, that is not a winning formula for Wolff, yet it does show that he still has streaks of good golf in him. If he can find a way to sustain that play for a four day stretch, he’ll return to the winner’s circle soon.

Wolff was T11 earlier this season at the Houston Open, placing in the top 20 of Strokes Gained on the greens and around the greens. If his short game is that comfortable this week, it could his chance to build a 72-hole performance worthy of a victory.

James Hahn +25000

Hahn has a few things going for him this week. First, he’s charging into this event off of a top ten last week in DC. That was his first top ten in a full field PGA Tour event since February of 2021. That is an encouraging sign for a player who had been in the weeds prior.

His second reason for optimism comes from prior success on this course. No, he did not play well here last year (he missed the cut), but he did finish solo second at this venue in the (then) Tour Championship back in 2012.

In today’s world that is ancient history, yet for a player being offered at odds as high as 250-1, I’m willing to squint and see a guy coming off a strong week who has had success at the venue before. He’s a longshot for a reason, but there’s reasons for optimism with James Hahn this week.

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