AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Longshot Picks: Matthew Wolff Among 3 Sleepers to Target
Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Wolff.
Click to expand AT&T Byron Nelson odds via BetMGM
AT&T Byron Nelson Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+6600|
|Charles Howell III||+10000|
|James Hart du Preez||+50000|
The PGA Tour typically slows down a bit the week before a major championship. Many of the world’s best players opt for rest or time at a practice facility over four competitive rounds in the lead up to a major, yet with next weekend’s PGA Championship on the precipice, this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson field is stronger than expected.
For whatever reason, more of the best players on the PGA Tour are viewing this week’s event in at TPC Craig Ranch in the Dallas region as a tune-up for next week’s major at Southern Hills in Tulsa. This year, the AT&T Byron Nelson has seen its strength of field, measured by the Official World Golf Rankings, jump compared to previous seasons and the tournaments nearby on the schedule.
Only once before, in 2017, but it was marginal compared to this year… https://t.co/l2wDhrhtpa
— Nosferatu (@VC606) May 9, 2022
That leads to a better viewing experience for fans, but a tougher needle to thread for bettors hunting for a longshot. The heavy hitters at the top of the field make a surprise champion less likely, but they also create some more enticing odds for players with a real chance to contend on Sunday.
This group of three players jump off the board as potential sleepers.
AT&T Byron Nelson Sleeper Picks
All odds via DraftKings.
Patton Kizzire +10000
In hunting for longshots this week, there isn’t much past performance history in our arsenal. The PGA Tour has visited this venue just once prior, for last year’s event. Kizzire played well that week, earning a T3 finish. He was in the top five in strokes gained for the week in both putting and approaching the green, a recipe for a strong score.
Kizzire is an Alabama native, but he has had some of his best performances on the PGA TOUR in the Lone Star State. In four of his five last starts in Texas, Kizzire has finished T11 or better, with two top-3 finishes in that span. In each of those events, he has found success with the same recipe: ball-striking from the fairway and making putts on the green.
If he can click into that rhythm again this weekend, he has a chance to make some noise as a dark horse.
Matthew Wolff +13000
Over the course of this season, Wolff has shown that when his game is firing at its best, he’s still good enough to compete with the world’s best. His problem has been the ability to find his best week to week, or even day to day.
In his twelve worldwide starts this season, Wolff has five finishes in the top 25 but also has four missed cuts and two made cuts that resulted in finishes outside the top 60.
Even within a tournament, his play fluctuates wildly. Last weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship, Wolff led the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee on Thursday. In Friday’s second round, he ranked 120th in the field in the very same statistic. Saturday, he was one of the five best players tee-to-green in the field. On Sunday, it was his driver that bit him again, with him ranking last in the field off the tee.
Needless to say, that is not a winning formula for Wolff, yet it does show that he still has streaks of good golf in him. If he can find a way to sustain that play for a four day stretch, he’ll return to the winner’s circle soon.
Wolff was T11 earlier this season at the Houston Open, placing in the top 20 of Strokes Gained on the greens and around the greens. If his short game is that comfortable this week, it could his chance to build a 72-hole performance worthy of a victory.
James Hahn +25000
Hahn has a few things going for him this week. First, he’s charging into this event off of a top ten last week in DC. That was his first top ten in a full field PGA Tour event since February of 2021. That is an encouraging sign for a player who had been in the weeds prior.
His second reason for optimism comes from prior success on this course. No, he did not play well here last year (he missed the cut), but he did finish solo second at this venue in the (then) Web.com Tour Championship back in 2012.
In today’s world that is ancient history, yet for a player being offered at odds as high as 250-1, I’m willing to squint and see a guy coming off a strong week who has had success at the venue before. He’s a longshot for a reason, but there’s reasons for optimism with James Hahn this week.
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