Sobel’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Matchup Bets: Backing Lefty in Sunday’s Final Round

Likely playing more defense than offense, today should be a matchup fade of leader Paul Casey against his experienced playing partner — some guy named Phil Mickelson.

More wet weather is expected at Pebble Beach for Sunday’s final round, as Paul Casey tries to stiff-arm the field and claim the victory.

There are a few players standing in his way, of course, and one of ‘em kicks off today’s matchup bets.

Phil Mickelson over Paul Casey (-120)

12:50 p.m. ET

The first time Casey ever played Pebble Beach, it was against Mickelson. This was two decades ago, and Casey was losing their bets so badly, so early in the match, that he pressed a bet of throwing the ball off the seventh tee. (He won that one.)

He’ll have to hit ‘em all today, and while that day shouldn't have any consequence, it underscores Mickelson’s experience on this golf course. More importantly, at three strokes off Casey’s lead, he will be playing offense while the leader plays a little defense. Lefty makes sense in this matchup.

Russell Knox over Jonathan Byrd by -0.5 (-150)

12:17 p.m. ET

Earlier this week, Byrd was all packed and heading to Panama for the Web.com event. That’s when he realized he’d forgotten his passport, so he turned around and went back home. Soon enough, he got into the field at Pebble as an alternate, packed a few sweaters and headed west instead of south. Great story, right?

Absolutely — and made greater by the fact that Byrd has played so well this week. All great stories come to an end, though, and you’ve got to think the whirlwind week will catch up to him at some point. Against Knox, who’s been trending in the right direction, don’t be surprised if it happens today.

Martin Trainer over Jordan Spieth by +2.5 (-145)

11:11 a.m. ET

This isn’t a Spieth fade; I liked him coming into the week and think he should bounce back a bit from Saturday’s poor round. This pick is all about the spread.

I’m sure some analytics could offer a more exact number, but I’ve got to believe that giving 2.5 strokes in a PGA Tour event is equivalent to giving 25 points in an NBA game. Trainer doesn’t have great results, but he does hit the ball a long way, which should help on a soggy day at Pebble.