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We did it; we finally hit an outright last week at the World Wide Technology Championship. I was prepared to be let down if Ben James didn't finish the job on Sunday, as we had him outright at +1800, but it turned out for the best. We also had Blades Brown on the card at +3000, so the payout was even better than expected. We also cashed a top 10 with Brown.
Let's carry some of that momentum into this week's Austin Championship, which is a new event and a new course on the PGA TOUR.
Let's take a look at my Austin Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Omni Barton Creek.
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Austin Championship Preview
The PGA TOUR heads to Austin, Texas this week for the Austin Championship at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa’s Fazio Canyons Course. Tom Fazio designed it in 1999, and Golfweek named it the No. 1 course in Texas in 2002.
A 2022 renovation that started as a bunker project grew into a seven-month, $5 million rebuild aimed at bringing the TOUR here. It plays as a par 72 at 7,451 yards, cutting through limestone canyons with big elevation changes and a creek that winds through six holes.
While the course looks challenging on the scorecard, this was built as a resort course, which means it is playable for everyone.
Off the tee, the fairways average 38 yards wide and range from 25 to 55 yards. Many of them sit at 45-degree angles and narrow in spots, though, so I don’t think driving distance will be a huge factor this week. With carries over canyons, steep drop-offs, tree-lined fairways and water in play on six holes, big misses off the tee will be punished. The rough looks very playable, and there are only 42 bunkers on the property.
Approach play is always important, and many are calling this a second-shot golf course. We can expect plenty of long irons this week. Three of the par 3s measure over 200 yards, five of the par 4s are over 440 yards, and there are four par 5s, all between 551 and 600 yards.
With large greens, I expect a high Greens in Regulation rate, so I prefer ball strikers over short game wizards. We don't know exactly how the course is going to play, but I'm leaning heavily on approach play and recent form.
Austin Championship Predictions, Picks
As always, here are the results of my 20,000 simulations for this event:
Jordan L. Smith to Win (+2800, DraftKings) | Top 10 (+310, DraftKings)
Smith is striping the ball at the moment. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open two weeks ago and gained nearly five strokes ball-striking at the World Wide Technology Championship last week.
He's still searching for his first win on the PGA TOUR, but he's a proven winner worldwide. He has two wins on the European Tour and two wins on the Challenge Tour.
The big question mark is always the short game, but these greens are so large that I'm not focused on scrambling much. If he can have a good week on the greens, I think he can contend in this weak field.
Brian Harman to Win (+3300, DraftKings) | Top 10 (+345, DraftKings)
For a long time, Harman was a favorite in my model, but that hasn't been the case over the last couple of years, for whatever reason.
Whether it's the weak field this week or a recent spike in his iron play, he's back to being one of the model favorites. He's not a great driver of the ball, but the wide fairways here should help him keep the ball in play. He's fifth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last eight months, and he has long had one of the best short games on TOUR.
He hasn't played much golf in the fall, but he finished T4 at the Baycurrent Classic in his last start.
Ben Kohles to Win (+4500, BetMGM) | Top 10 (+460, FanDuel)
Kohles is showing consistency that we only see from the true elites on the PGA TOUR.
After last week's T25 finish at the World Wide Technology Championship, he has now finished in the top 30 in 16 of his last 17 events. Many will see a lot of T20 finishes in the game log and think he lacks upside, but he has a win and a third-place finish during that stretch.
With many calling this a second-shot golf course, it's hard not to like Kohles this week. He's 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 18 months. He's also in the top 5 for Birdie or Better % and Bogey Avoidance. It turns out golf is easy when you make a lot of birdies and don't make many bogeys.
Jackson Suber to Win (+5500, BetMGM)
Suber missed the cut last week, which is why his odds are down to +5500 this week. He's been one of the most consistent golfers in this field over the last six months, so I'm willing to overlook one missed cut (especially since it was only due to one bad round).
He's an excellent driver of the ball and is fourth in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last eight months. When in doubt, I like leaning on ball striking. The putter is a valid concern, but I almost view his struggles on the green as a positive.
If everyone is seeing these greens for the first time, maybe it will level the playing field with the putter.
Jackson Koivun Top 10 (+194, DraftKings)
My model views Koivun as a positive value in the outright market this week, but I didn't want a fifth outright on the card. Instead, I will settle for a top 10 finish from the young superstar.
After picking up his first PGA TOUR win at the 3M Open a few months ago, he followed it up with a great performance at the Ryder Cup.
He's one of the best prospects the TOUR has seen in a long time, and he's already making noise early in his career. He's #1 in my model by a significant margin, so I'm happy to take him at +194 to finish in the top 10.
Zac Blair Top 10 (+770, DraftKings)
Blair is one of the shortest hitters on the PGA TOUR, so it was impressive to see him finish T25 at a very long course last week. With the fairways pinching at around 300 yards this week, I'm not putting much stock in Driving Distance.
When you don't need to be a bomber to contend, Blair is always a golfer that I consider adding to my cards. He's sixth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 18 months, and he's a top 30 putter.
