Is Bubba Watson a Good Fit for Shinnecock?


Jun 1, 2018; Dublin, OH, USA; Bubba Watson looks on during the second round of The Memorial golf tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.

The Info: Bubba Watson

DFS Pricing: $8,200 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): T-32, MC, MC, T-51, MC

Odds: +5000 to win, +500 top-10 finish, +240 top-20 finish, -275 to make cut, +200 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +240 top-20 finish

Best Matchup Value: Bubba Watson (+110) over Matt Kuchar

Tee Times: 7:40 a.m. (Thursday); 1:25 p.m. (Friday)

For more U.S. Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.

The Outlook

Watson is such a head case on the golf course that I wouldn’t feel great about placing bets on him or plugging him into my DFS team. While Watson is sporting a 68.8 Recent Adjusted Round Score over the past six weeks, nearly all of his damage has been done on par-5s (-10.5 average adjusted strokes). He’s struggled on par-4s, averaging +2.0 average adjusted strokes within the same time frame. Moreover, his +0.7 average adjusted strokes over the past 75 weeks is fairly mediocre. The U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock in 2004, and Watson missed the cut then. Since 2011, he has either missed the cut or finished 32nd or worse at U.S. Opens.

The Metrics

Here’s how Watson ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-54th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-33rd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 39th
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: 20th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 48th

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.

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