Houston Open Picks & Best Bets 2024: Expert PGA Picks

Houston Open Picks & Best Bets 2024: Expert PGA Picks article feature image

Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured (left to right): Nate Lashley, Si Woo Kim & Rafael Campos.

The PGA Tour heads to Houston, Texas for the Houston Open, and our experts have their Best Bets & Expert PGA Tour Picks ready.

Golf betting experts Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have picks for Memorial Park Golf Course as the PGA Tour heads to Texas.

The Tour previously visited Austin for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play during this week of the schedule, but with that event eliminated from the Tour this season, the Texas Children's Houston Open takes its place. The Houston Open was previously part of the Fall Swing and was most recently held in November of 2022, when Tony Finau won by four shots at 16-under par.

Here's everything you need to know about Houston Open Best Bets at the PGA Tour's 14th event of 2024.

Houston Open Picks & Best Bets 2024: Expert PGA Tour Bets

Spencer Aguiar: Nate Lashley Top 20 +550 (bet365)

Nate Lashley's range of outcomes was the widest of any golfer I had in my model. I always note how pushing that outlook further up the board when making a placement wager is the better strategy over trying to play things safe. That was my preferred route to enter the mix for a board that didn't have any matchup wagers that garnered the usual three-percent edge I am looking for to recommend it as a wager.

You will hear about my disdain for this tournament several times on this week's Links + Locks Tournament Preview podcast when that drops early Wednesday morning. Still, poor pricing and the change in the month for the event (from November to March) had books shade away from any real exposure chances in Houston.

Lashley has no floor to speak of whatsoever, with four missed-cut appearances in his last six events, but his profile radiates top-20 potential when he does get into the weekend.

That was good enough value for me to take a shot at what I deemed to be a generous +550 price. Just realize that the floor is LOW!

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Nick Bretwisch: Greyson Sigg Top 40 +140 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)

Greyson Sigg’s upside is borderline nonexistent, but the fairway finder has been striking the ball extremely well as of late and offers us the scrambling profile needed to hang around at Memorial Park Golf Course. I have him ranked as my 29th-safest golfer in the field, yet also inside the top 40 in upside, which is extremely rare for a Sigg output.

Even when he’s had an off-week with his iron-play this season by his standards, it has been neutral in comparison to the field. It’s only a matter of time before he is in the hunt on a Sunday in one of these lower-tiered events.

Matt Gannon: Si Woo Kim Top 20 +150 (bet365)

Si Woo Kim has been on an absolute ball-striking tear over the last few months. He is coming off a start at THE PLAYERS where he gained strokes in every category, which shows his game is in a great spot. In this event last season, Kim gained over eight strokes on Approach. He has his spots in which he gets scorching hot each and every year.

We do not have enough data on him at Memorial Park (with him playing in two of the only three PGA Tour events here in recent memory), so it could be a great trend to get ahead of. He currently lives in Dallas, so he is used to playing in Texas conditions. I believe he is live to win this week, so finishing in the top 20 should be no problem for the youngest ever winner of THE PLAYERS.

Tony Sartori: Rafael Campos Top 20 +650 (FanDuel)

Obviously, this field is extremely top heavy. However, after about the top-dozen golfers, this field really opens up.

Once you get past those first 13 golfers, the field really starts to nosedive, and this creates a lot of valuable opportunities to look at longer prices in the top-20 market as there is a massive range of people that can sneak in there. Consequently, it should be no surprise that Spencer and Matt have both joined me in attacking this top-20 market.

That brings me to Rafael Campos, a golfer who is an underrated ball-striker and ranks 13th on Tour this season in Greens in Regulation percentage. He’s utilized this accuracy to post some strong results recently, finishing in a tie for 18th at the Puerto Rico Open and a tie for 20th at the Farmers Insurance Open.

At +650, I think it’s worth a shot that Campos finishes inside the top 20 for the third time over his past six tournaments.

Houston Open Expert Picks, Fades

Favorites We’re Backing

  • Spencer Aguiar: Scottie Scheffler +300
  • Bretwisch: Sahith Theegala +2200
  • Matt Gannon: Will Zalatoris +2000
  • Tony Sartori: Wyndham Clark +1400

Best Long Shot

  • Aguiar: Nate Lashley 250-1
  • Bretwisch: Cameron Davis 110-1
  • Gannon: Chris Gotterup 175-1
  • Sartori: Billy Horschel +6500

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Biggest Bust

  • Aguiar: Cameron Champ 120-1
  • Bretwisch: Wyndham Clark +1300
  • Gannon: Tom Hoge +5500
  • Sartori: Sahith Theegala +2000

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Aguiar: Max Greyserman 250-1
  • Bretwisch: Stephan Jaeger +5000
  • Gannon: Jason Day +2400
  • Sartori: Alex Noren +4000

Trend That Guides Your Houston Open Betting Strategy

Aguiar: The move from November to March gives Memorial Park a different outlook for those running numbers for the event this week.

Sure, the primary blueprint for one of Tom Doak's designs will always be his distinctive green complexes. That remains front and center when diving into the over five-percent increase in scoring dispersion regarding Strokes Gained: Around the Green. However, how much ease do we get in that area because of the Poa trivialis overseeded (over dormant Bermuda)?

I still believe Doak is diabolical enough with his typical green complexes to combat that situation, but it is a metric worth noting since weeks like this could easily be altered from the normal output.

Gannon: Memorial Park is a golf course where golfers need to have the entire bag working, but there is a clear part of the game that trumps all. If golfers are not driving the ball both long and straight on this track, they will get lapped. Elite drivers have headlined the leaderboards from each of the last three tournaments here in Houston.

Of course, long iron play and middle iron play will be important here, but keying in on driving is paramount. You can be the best iron player in the world (Tom Hoge), but if you are driving the ball offline or lack distance, you can find yourself in danger of missing the cut.

Total Driving and tougher course condition history are two very important stats this week, so that is what I will emphasize while handicapping the 2024 Houston Open.

Sartori: I’m looking for guys who can hit greens at a high rate this week. While hitting greens is an obvious key for success at any venue, this need to land safely on the approach is amplified at Memorial Park due to the creativity and accuracy required to navigate this difficult course.

Simply by hitting greens in regulation, golfers gain a step on the opposition. Last season, each of the top-three finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in GIR%, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.

Getting even more specific, you want to look for accurate ball-strikers from the 150-175 yard range, considering that is where the largest distribution of approach shots here came from (17.6%) when this event was last played in November of 2022.

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